Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

NO is bound to get it at some point. They've avoided a big hit quite a few times, for some reason I get the feeling they won't be so lucky this time.

The big chunk missing from the radars is just due to not being able to see through all the way, right?

cane / Gator - Hold the fort... Too bad we all can't get together and happy hour as a group! Can you imagine the convo and the bantering?! OK, back later tonight / in the morning...

well, it said the NW side of the eyewall is fragmented....

People in New Orleans should be ready, THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE GETTING READY BECAUSE THIS STORM IS NOT GOING TO JUST DIE. IF Katrina were to make landfall ANYWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST,THERE WOULD BE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF DAMAGE. Before I am ripped, hear me out. If it were to rapidly intenisify and hit the central gulf coast as a cat 3/4/5 Oil prices would jump dollars a barrel easily depending on the stregnth. If it were to stay out in the ocean longer the chances of the dry air effecting it would be lower thus making the possibility of a Charlie,Hugo or even Andrew situation more likely. NO ONE can disagree that if this storm were to stay out in the HOT Gulf of Mexico it would not stay where it is (strength) right now and NO ONE can dispute that an Extreme to Catastrophic hurricane over the oil facilities out in the Gulf would not have a negative impact on gas prices.

The bottom line is that barring an unantisipated event, Katrina's name will be retired

Just something to think about.

right here: Link

And btw zeenster, KATRINA was ******* awesome. I loved it. I have damage pics, if you'd like to see them.....

Way to be raindancer. Caneforecaster - yeah, I see it - GFS has moved to Morgan City area. Zeenster, try this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p12_078l.gif

SJ: flooding map of NO

cut and paste this after your current link:

<a href="#" onclick="open('http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/science/20020430_NEWORLEANS/index.html','_blank','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no');return false;" target="_blank">flooding map of NO</a>

caneforecaster- we've had a very wet summer here. N.O. weather during the summer involves pop-up thunderstorms almost every day. The pumping system here can handle 1 inch of rain per hour. Anything over that causes street flooding. Starting to worry here.

Here in Pensacola,we are Ready..we know the deal...

NEW ORLEANS...get out!!! Now!! LOL...take a vacation to tennessee

honestly I think they have to start preparing big evacuations in New Orleans. I know it could be expensive (if it doesn't hit), but you can't just wait for every model shift. If the threat is there you gotta take it seriously....

As posted here earlier, the ridge would hold and Katrina would move further west. By the way StormTop, unfortunately was also on this movement before NHC.

You know....we had 2 major hurricanes back in July and we have been jonesan for another one, and here we are looking dead in the eyes of another major hurricane that came from a(thought to be dead td10)............isnt that amazing.....

Sab, you are assuming that the pumps are not under six to 10 feet of water which they would be with a surge. And from the looks of it the winds could blow the water in the lakes right over the levees.

I have been in the eye of 4 systems, 2 major in 10 months..Pine Hill Al.

ANd if you check out in Steve Gregory's blog, I think it's not the latest post but the one before it, it shows the heat content over the Gulf of Mexico.

The path to New Orleans (from where it is now) is the highest heat content in the basin....

By the way NOGAPS has been the most accurate of the models for the last three days, nearly 100 percent.

I don't agree, GetReal. I think it was the 00z run, not last night but the night before, that showed Katrina making landfall near Vero Beach, FLorida

"The big chunk missing from the radars is just due to not being able to see through all the way, right?" - AySz88

There's dry air mixing in with the circulation, restricting the outflow and rainfall in the NW quadrant. This also explains why people farther north in Florida did not get much (if any) rain from this system.

EVERYONE FROM NEW ORLEANS TO TAMPA SHOULD WATCH IT. People should pay close attention to this because WHEN THIS STORM HITS IT WILL CAUSE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN DAMAGE.What is undeniable is that the longer it strenghtens the more and more damage it will cause. HEAR ME OUT. . . The longer it stays out the more likely it is to become a cat 4/5 I am probably the most conservative out here however the longer it stays out over the HOT gulf of mexico the more likely for this to be a CHARLIE,HUGO OR ANDREW SITUATION. Will it be this way, no one knows but NO ONE can deny that the longer it is out over 90+ degree waters it can't become at least a cat4. Another thing is the oil prices. the longer it sits out over the gulf the longer it will strengthen and the more likely it is to hit oil facilities. Should this happen oil prices will jump easily. Espically if it becomes a cat 3/4/5. NO ONE can deny that.

The bottom line is that Katrina's name will be retired.

Just something to think about.

boy, now the news is all over it here in baton rouge. I hope NO has enough time to prepair, I still say it wouldn't have hurt the nhc to at least say they were more uncertain yesterday

caneforecaster...where do you get the models so quickly? All I really rely on are the wunderground models, but I know there is a lot more out there.

Oil trading is closed now for the weekend....if the threat turns out to be real and she's making landfall on the LA coast on Monday--WATCH OUT!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

Site for the spaghetti shots.

Read between the lines in the discussion....the west shift at 5:00 pm was only phase 1....they are going to move the Official forecast further west at 11:00...

Our local "news" stations with their sensational meteorologist keep talking about the possibility of a threat to Texas from hurricane Katrina. IMO, it's a sensationalized attempt to keep veiwers "tuned in" and is highly unprofessional. Is there anyone with any experience (beyond those who always seem to wish for catastrophic events) who thinks there may even be a remote threat to the Texas coast? If not, I'm going to start a campaign to get complaints filed to the local network affiliates. This is uncalled for and unprofessional.

Thanks in advance for any help.

OneDay- I get the models from several locations.

The GFS comes out as it runs on the site I posted Link to above. The NOGAPS comes out well before it does here on the Navy site: Link

its getting less and less remote....if it runs wnw nw but not N...there you go

Does anyone remember the Docu-movie on FX network a few months ago "Oilstorm". All of that started with a cat 4 hit on The oil station off New Orleans and led to nearly the demise of the US economy. Even with out all the other stuff occuring a shutdown of the oil port for just a few days would push gas to well north of $3 a gallon.

SCTexas- While there is always the chance, I see very little model data to support this at this time. The only area that is even near the cone of uncertainty is the upper Texas coast...

Everyone needs to remember that for the last 48 hrs these models have been slightly more accurate than a monkey throwing feces at a wall map. Everyone needs to watch for the turn and not panic till then. There is no steerage now. Once that starts the models will tighten up and the cone will start to shrink

SCTexas-

Looking through the past NHC forecasts, they've been moving the track west about every advisory since the storm made landfall. The models have been nothing but wrong, wrong, wrong so far for this system. However, the models have consistently shown a northward to north-northeastward turn, but they've never been able to agree on when.

I would venture that the threat to any part of Texas, even east Texas, would be slim at best.

My luck it will hit directly Pensacola

hi gator, jax here too...where's stormtop ya'll? did he decide to heed his warning and head for the hills?
this thing needs to be all over the news...have they waited too late? I'm scared for the people of NO...

I don't think you should necessarily trash all the models. The GFDL, UKMET, and BAMM have all performed fairly well, from what I have seen....

The GFS is another story though, lol

don't say that...

Weatherwatcher007, you are looking at a dated GFDL. Current run takes Katrina just east of New Orleans.

I have shifted my forecast track to the left as well, I may have to shift it even further tonight based on recon data ahead of the storm. I fear for areas between New Orleans and Pascagoula

StormJunkie- I'm just trying to show how even a thunderstorm can cause flooding around here. Every drop of water that falls here has to be pumped out- any storm surge would render the pumps practically useless. Also, emergency managment officals released info earlier this year that shows the levees, like everything else here, are sinking. They were constructed to hold out the surge from a cat 2-3, but now would only be effective for a cat 1 if the path was right.

My new forecast Link

You are running out of time to complete an evac pass christian.

Is there a way for them to let water out of Lake Pontchartrain?

Running out of time to evacuate? It's at least 2 days BEFORE it will hit..whereever it hits.

just an interesting photo from NOAA

Link

3 million people IKE.

is there any chance that the high will move away faster than they think and have katrina move north sooner

The models ahve not all performed like crap. The NHC has bee nbehind the powercurve since the storm started moving SW and have been trying to play catch up since then. IMO they missed a chance to move it slightly further west at 11:00 this am, that would have grabbed some more attention in NOLA "Hey, its moving a little west, we really need to watch this" and were then forced to make the HUGE jump at 5:00 pm. The official forecast STILL marks the EASTERN periphery of the guidance envelope...

I stopped for a tank fill and bottled water etc etc after work...in Walmart in Waveland MS. People had no clue...I asked the checker if people were starting to load up "No, because its gonna hit Florida again." "Its not coming here" The local radio weatehr was still calling for hot and less cahnce of precip...they were just reciting the NWS NOLA forecast...which was relying on the NHC Official track before they start to think about changing to talking about rain and wind

Oh well.

sctexas - no question the mainstream local news media gets carried away, but I wouldn't rule out Texas too quickly. It's starting to look like the models will shift west with each run until a northward turn actually begins. Texas may not be likely, but it gets more likely every minute the thing stays on a westward course.

Here in Miami people were caught very offguard yesterday (mostly because the NHC for some reason refused to indicate the southward drift). We had classes until 6:00pm....people were driving to class as the eye was making landfall lol. Bad call on their part..

Pass Christian has plenty of time Storm , I've been through Camille and everyone since then I'm not in the NO bowl.. And as far as the models go THIS storm has really puzzled them, even VYPER has got it wrong thus far and VYPER predicted the Punta Gorda right turn and the last right turn of Ivan that put it into Florabama area instead of Biloxi