Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Too far south, but hey... can't rule it out.
how about for exaple T.W. AND THE LOCATION WHAT YOU THINK
it will be easy to keep track of them
It's embedded in the Itcz I think, but significant rotation seems to be there, somewhere around 23w, 13n, I think. TIA
Link
Appears to be spinning though and in a ball not like the train from the steamer to the rail car.
MLC: in imagery like the one u posted from meteosat...how can one tell upper level from lower level circulation?
I'm not sure I can answer that; but, my understanding is, that SAL is more of a sfc condition. If you'll look where the dust(pink) is, that is at lower levels and there is spin there. Then, there's convection firing upwards and rotation as well, the darker the clouds-the higher. That is definitely IMHO.
Heres my take on the tropics. The low level circulation that came off of Africa has become a ghost, with most of its shallow convection far to the south of the center of circulation. Factor in that the low is taking in lots of dry air and heading into an area of high shear, I think it is safe to say this one is dead in then water. And as for that cute little bugger 50w, all I can say is its too far south.
There is a tropical wave over Mexico heading for Texas, but it is over land. The only wave I see with any remote chance of developing is the one passing through the Lesser Antilles. It is in a good area with little shear and fairly moist air. The problem is, it has no structure, and is heading towards a ULL. The last thing worth mentioning is a wave coming off of Africa. It is large with strong convection and has quite a spin to it. But it is also far enough north and strong enough to bring a lot of dust with it. The wave will most likely degenerate into a ghostly swirl like its predecessor upon coming off shore.
MLC,
At 23W;13N is that broad low we've been watching. No kind of orginization...just broad cyclonic turning in the stratocumulus deck.
StormW, I think that broad low is at about 33w. Look near 23w, almost due south of the Verdes.
I think it's so funny that wx channel, accuweather, Dr. M, and several other weather sites for tracking tropical weather are all in agreement saying there's nothing of....
...lol, that's what makes it interesting and fun!!!
My personal interest is that wave associated with a low pressure center.
...on the drive home now, bbl.
Afternoon amazin'
I agree with mlc, that is one of the things that makes weather so interesting and somewhat aggravating to all of us. When Katrina was the remains of TD 10 many on here were still watching it even though the NHC and everyone was saying it was dead. Obviously it was not quite gone. Most of the time the experts are right, but sometimes they are not and that is why it makes it interesting to watch and analyze most anything that is out there.
Is that area near 10 50 too far South I don't think it is, if its spinning wouldn't that take it a bit more North
At 23W;13N is that broad low we've been watching. No kind of orginization...just broad cyclonic turning in the stratocumulus deck.
Additionally, its moving WSW as it was over land and looked very nice around 18N/10W. It looked like the one to watch then, just a skeleton now.
As for TD 10, I remember that its leftovers merged with a wave coming from the south over Cuba. Katrina sure did form in an interesting way.
SEE HERE
The jet stream is all the way in canadian border lol.
I think it's so funny that wx channel, accuweather, Dr. M, and several other weather sites for tracking tropical weather are all in agreement saying there's nothing of interest.... ...
The difference is this is a blog where the posters are interested in tropical weather. The "Professionals" by design cannot point out every single blob and discuss the why's and why nots with the public. They give thier best forecasts and move on but keep watching. I myself prefer to watch and learn and talk about "blobs". If there are those like yourself that do not like that or think it is useless then you are better off just reading the "professionals" Tropical Outlooks and go do something you enjoy. No disrespect intended.
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