Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here is the CMC
Why not the wave in front of it?
Link
Taz, what do you think about the latest CMC run?
the cmc gone nuts
Lets wait and see what the NHC says. Also, StormW should be giving us an update.
Taz the upper level trough isn't near the wave lol.
...lol, that's what had me confused earlier, Drakoen...knew there was no trough near there.
ALSO, that's mid-level wv, is there ITCZ convection normally too, at the low and upper levels usually? OH! and TIA, again!
what up all
why would the CMC have that type of track unless the ridge was eroded severly
LOL that what i am wondering. The CMC is on crack.
Ok, Drakoen, I think you're saying there's WV at the mid and upper levels usually; but less at the surface because of SAL?
Yes. SAL affects the mid-lower levels.
Thanks, I know I'm full of questions!!! lol
Now, would an "upward" pulse from the MJO cause convection to rise and disipate SAL at the lower...and consequently, other levels?
I may be wrong but I think that if the CMC was on the right track with a system that, according to the GFS (which I think is a more reliable model right now) the timing is a little off. The CMC is too fast with the breakdown of the ridge near there. The breakdown would actually happen a little later, hence the system a further west.
Here is a piece of the lastest model discussion..
THE CANADIAN...ALWAYS ENTERTAINING WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS...DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVES DUE NORTH FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH THROWS ITS SOLUTION INTO MAJOR DOUBT SINCE NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HINTS AT A TROPICAL FEATURE AND THE ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY DIAGRAMS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OFF THE CANADIAN SHOW FAVORABLE 200MB DIVERGENCE BUT UNFAVORABLE LOWER CONVERGENCE. OTHER MODELS SHOW UNFAVORABLE CONDS.
One other note the 72hr surface map from the NHC has this wave moving west into the caribbean.
1745 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N30W 6N32W. A 1012 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE LOW
ITSELF CONSISTS OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE. UPPER E/SE FLOW S
OF AN UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-64W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85/86W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITHIN 200NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. A SIMILAR PATCH OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE THE SRN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS
WAVE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AS DESCRIBED IN THE
PACIFIC DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP.
In the atlantic, there are a few interests of disturbed weather. Nothing organized though.
If anything were to develop, it'd the Lesser Antilles wave, only becasue shear in the caribbean is forecasted to lower. Also, maybe, as Dr. M stated in his blog when on Saturday a stalling trough will be off near the Carolinas...need to watch that scenario.
Not to mention, in a week or two when SAL and shear lowers even more, waves that come off Africa, should be monitered very closely, becasue the conditions may be favorable, and a bunch of tropical cyclones may form.
So, as said, as of now, watch some of the waves coming off of Africa, the disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles and South America associated with the ITZC, and not to mention the SE coast near the carolinas also.
For those interested i posted the lastest model discussion on the cmc forcast a little up in the blog.
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