Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Taz is our official 'eye' spotter. If he doesn't see one, then it isn't there. Of course, some of them only last for a few seconds while he is looking at them, but that doesn't mean they weren't there. (FYI provided by Florida Treasure Coast member.)
Semper Fi!.
Re Man-yi, GLAD it isn't here, looks like a steamroller.
135 Knots = 155.5 MPH
125 Knots = 144.0 MPH
12+ hours in that, No thank you.
"Observed at: Okinawa, JP
Elevation: 148 ft
[Light Drizzle]
82 °F
Light Drizzle
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 31 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 38 mph
Pressure: 29.24 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 92 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
(Above Ground Level)"............
Link
The GFS, CMC and NAM all show the moisture heading toward the northern islands...PR...Haiti..in that area.
Looks like like the outflow and circulation is being blocked on the northwest side. This likely won't be deepening any more till it can get its act back together. Which can easily still happen, just currently, its not too impressive looking.
FROM THE NHC
IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W INDUCING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER HONDURAS.
$$
WALLACE
Anything new out there or still quiet? Living right outside of Savannah and it is HOT here. REALLY hot. Actually starting to look at houses in San Diego again and thinking sitting in traffic for two hours on the way home from work wasn't such a bad thing after all...
That's weird! Where did CNN get that?
Lastest CPC outlook indicates Neutral conditions will be in place the next 2 months in the atlantic basin followed by a weak nina.
Climate Prediction Center 7/12/07 Update
href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank">Link
I am still half asleep.
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
As taxpayers and citizens we should demand that our tax dollars be spent in the most effective and efficient way to maintain and improve hurricane forecasting. I for one am glad that Dr. Masters keeps us informed on these matters, as they are very relevant to the stated purpose of his blog. My own view is that the people here who have criticized Dr. Masters for covering these events are really the ones who are using this blog for their own political purposes.
As of June 21 NCEP was a lot less bullish on a strong La Nina:
Link
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007
[...]
EARLY IN THE YEAR A RAPID DECREASE IN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES... THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST... AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF PACIFIC SSTS RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT A TRANSITION
TO LA NINA CONDITIONS BY MID 2007. HOWEVER... BELOW NORMAL SSTS HAVE NOT
DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... AND SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HAVE RECENTLY BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THESE INDICATORS
MAKE A TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS MUCH LESS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW MONTH
THAN HAD APPEARED EARLIER IN THE YEAR. MOST DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT
A TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS BY LATE SUMMER... ALTHOUGH STATISTICAL
MODELS PREDICT THAT CENTRAL PACIFIC SSTS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD...
INDICATING NEUTRAL ENSO OR ONLY VERY WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS. THUS... AT THIS
TIME NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH JAS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LA NINA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE FALL... ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL BE WEAK. THUS ENSO HAS A LIMITED IMPACT
ON THIS SERIES OF FORECASTS.
[...]
Conflicting model predictions...should be interesting to see how it pans out.
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