Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Understand - I think sis wants to move North Shore, but oldest daughter is 10th grade at Sacred Heart, youngest daughter is 1st grade there and son is going to go to Jesuit like his dad. So, dad refuses to move...
Sorry to hear about your wife - mine works for SSA in title 16 unit here - she's told me horror stories. Hope that your experience with them has been decent...
I was impressed (that's an understatement), but it may have just been the liquor (can you imagine?). Of course, my wife complained that she couldn't find me in the crowd because there were too many shaved heads...
I've met some good and some not so good CWOs - mostly the former variety. I'm extremely impressed by the way that the Marines tie promotion in the E ranks so closely to demonstrated ability to lead. It's just not that way in the other services.
Gotta hit the sack - need to get in the office early (aka before the managers) so I can get some work done...
Nite all
act together . does it have a chance to do so ?
imo the tropics will be very active on july 19 and on just in my own opinion stay tuned
act together . does it have a chance to do so ?
imo the tropics will be very active on july 19 and on just in my own opinion stay tuned
Like I said, unless this holds its convection for at least two days, both day and night, I won't be too concerned with it. Holding it just at night only to fizzle during the day simply won't do. That's why 96L was never classified.
Link
Link
the atantic at 10N 33W looks very interesting this morning. It looks like there is a mid to low level circulation attached to a tropical wave. Wind shear is at 5-19 knots in this area. Tne system is embedded in a lot of moisture, the chabces of further development are good
This area has to be watched over the next few days.Link
take a look at this WV image. it is very difficult to see this moisture dry up so quicklyLink
Link
"Observed at: Okinawa, JP
Elevation: 148 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
83 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 36 mph
Pressure: 29.28 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 3700 ft
(Above Ground Level)"............
The believers vs. the non-believers on the central Atlantic wave.
Nws TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007
Tropical wave is along 36W S of 17N moving W 15-20 kt. Broad low level Inverted-V signature is observed on satellite imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are from 7N-11N between 34W-40W.
Just got an e-mail from my buddy at Iwakuni. They don't expect much over there by the time it gets to the mainland - Cat 1 winds at best. They're staying put, rather than evacuating further north (at least that's the Commander's decision)...
Right now, Man-Yi reminds me A LOT of Opal, which I remember all too well. We affectionately refer to her as the "buzz saw" as we lost quite a bit of power infrastructure that had to be replaced. Fortunately, SSTs don't support intensification beyond Okinawa and it appears that there's a trough moving down from the north which may help recurvature along...
I see an eye on the central wave !!!!!................lol.
Don't be silly MahFL, I see banding though. LOL LOL
Morning all! Coffee time, got a late start.
Taz is our official 'eye' spotter. If he doesn't see one, then it isn't there. Of course, some of them only last for a few seconds while he is looking at them, but that doesn't mean they weren't there. (FYI provided by Florida Treasure Coast member.)
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