Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.
Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.
Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.
Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It will be interesting to see if the dust suppresses the wave or whether it will survive to travel W
Quiet weekend in T&T ??
In a couple of years maybe.
Watching a sat. image does not do it justice man.
10 hottest cities
Average annual temperature, F
1. Key West, Florida 77.7
2. Miami, Florida 75.6
3. W Palm Beach, Florida 74.6
4. Ft. Myers, Florida 73.9
5. Yuma, Florida 73.9
6. Brownsville, Texas 73.6
7. Orlando, Florida 72.4
8. Vero Beach, Florida 72.4
9. Corpus Christi, Tx 72.1
10. Tampa, Florida 72.0
FULL LISTINGS HERE!
no dramatic changes through the remainder of
the week into next weekend. An upper low will remain mostly in place
off the Washington/or coast, maintaining weak cyclonic flow over Southern
California. Minor day to day temperature fluctuations, mainly as a
result of slight changes in the low level inversion height and onshore
pressure gradients. But overall temperatures will be at or slightly above
normal.
Ive made some custom satellite images for the state of florida on my website.Feel free to check them out.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page.
Adrian's Satellite images
A tropical wave between 40 and 50 west is still forecast to come around the periphery of the middle Atlantic ridge and the northern part of the wave is forecast to approach South Florida on Tuesday and bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. The extended guidance continues to suggest this scenario.
OK so lets look at the satellite image of this Central Atlantic wave between 40W and 50W
Am I missing something?
reports a 65 kts(75 mph) wind gust, kind of funny since i live around ft.myers and been clear and nice all day
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