Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.
Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.
Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.
Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.
Jeff Masters
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devoid of any significant convection, naked swirl, but definitely fun to watch! :)
swirly things get my attention! LOL
the moisture from Tropical Disturbance 12 in the western Caribbean Sea
Uhhhmmm.. have I missed the last dozen TD's?
Good to see ya thel. Nice swirl you got there.
Can not believe we do not have the GHCC back yet. That hurts...
swirly things get my attention too but when I try to bring up the area you are talking about, I only see high level clouds moving one way and some very low clouds moving the other way....in short.. somethings just crossing paths at different levels.. or it seems to me..
so.. NO swirly can I see but what you drew in there.
update later..oops.. my bad.. NOW i see more swirly there..
hummmmmmmmmm
STL and you think this will amount to what?
All this leads me to think that the UKMET office and CPC are on to something and we indeed may not see as an active season as thought before.Adrian
hmm. Could be adrian however ssts have been warming up quickly. They could still get to be as high if not higher than 05.
Higher then 2005...Not a chance the SST'S that were in place in 2005 were incredible.
Thunderstorms and rain
temp 75
press 1014
current doldrums...
2005 Heat potential Link
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