Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Beneficial Barry

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:43 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007

Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.

Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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51. Drakoen 05:51 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
yes it just so happened that the RECON had flown out their when Barry looked it "most organized". I will be waiting to see if the change it to sub-tropical Barry in the after-season analysis. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

52. Patrap 05:53 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
In 3 weeks no one will remember Barry.Its a moot thing.It was a TS for 2 hours that went baroclinic after the shear and dry air wacked it up upside the head. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

53. Drakoen 05:53 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
yea JP i know they can't be blamed but they should have taken this system into more consideration let say 3-4 hours out if it would actually be able to sustain it self with borderline tropical storm characteristics. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

55. Drakoen 05:55 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 5:53 PM GMT on June 03, 2007. In 3 weeks no one will remember Barry.Its a moot thing.It was a TS for 2 hours that went baroclinic after the shear and dry air wacked it up upside the head. LOL the TWC will. They always try to draw these systems out for as long as possible. I am sure Barry will be remember for it benficial rains. I am hoping that we see development over the next week or so. Given that some part of Florida still need the rain. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

56. weathergeek5 05:56 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Have a good vacation Dr. masters Member Since: Dicembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

57. Drakoen 05:57 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
In the Bay of Campeche the upper level winds should become somewhat favorable for development although i think that this is highly unlikely. None of the models are showing development. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

58. Patrap 05:58 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Like I said.Its Moot.I dont watch TWC. Its candy for the masses. It once.. was a good and only TV/media source for a while.Like in the mid 80s. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

59. Patrap 05:59 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Lots of Storms to come yet as the Season matures.Its only the dawn now. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

63. Drakoen 06:01 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Heres something at 2:00 pm for BLOB watchers. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST S OF 12N ALONG 12W AND IS PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE THAT IS ALONG 16.5W AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 7N17W. THE WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. THERE MAY BE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE AXIS PSN AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SAL IN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY N IN THE VICINITY OF 35W WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE S OF 7N ALONG 35W ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WAVE PSN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST OF S AMERICA. A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED TO THE S OF 9N ALONG 51.5W INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD BE RELOCATED WESTWARD TO ALONG 55.5W AT 1200 UTC TODAY. THE WAVE AXIS PASSED THROUGH CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA AROUND 1200 UTC YESTERDAY WITH A GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE RAOB SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE STILL REMAINS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LOW CLOUD MOTION IN THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N ALONG 75W AT 12Z. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 12N78W. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

64. Patrap 06:04 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
It dosent matter if was called Godzilla or Gertrude.The effects are what count.And in Barrys case..the effects were good for Fla/Ga. The classification dosent mean anything. Its gone.Like Cindy in 05.It was a Cane in the End..but who remembers Cindy from 05?.We all remember 7 weeks Later and after though. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

65. Drakoen 06:04 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
JP they should call it extreme borederline tropical storm lol cause thats what i think. The place where they found the "997mb" was north of the COC. most of the convection was never actually on the COC. and the system was asymetrical. there was a very small cloud field on the Eastern part of the COC if that. It was a borderline tropical storm for a very short period of time. And i am surprised the the NHC did consider it being sub tropical sotrm barry one the heavy conevtion was entirely removed from the COC. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

66. Patrap 06:07 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
BArry Remnant Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

67. Patrap 06:07 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Barry 24 ago..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

69. Patrap 06:08 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Shear 24 ago..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

70. Fl30258713 06:10 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Hey Patrap, Have you checked out the fast moving storms that are entering Louisiana. They are probably going to stay north of you, but appears to be making tracks toward NW Fla. Specifically me. I'm guessing the HP in the GOM is going to redirect SE moving cluster of storms to more of an east track along the Fl coast to the northern state line and then it will get pulled into what used to be Barry to the NE through Ga and SC. I'm wondering what these storms will be like when they get to Pensacola area. About an hour ago one cell was moving at 68 knots. Right now the fastest is 30 knots and has Tornado vortex signature. Link Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

72. Drakoen 06:12 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
that wave in the southern carribean looks interesting. But it looks like some shear is taking place, even though the shear forecast calls for low shear int hat general area. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

73. Patrap 06:12 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
10 day WAVETRAK..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

74. Patrap 06:13 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
That ULL is hauling Butt SE.. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

75. Fl30258713 06:14 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Yep, that's the one. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

77. Patrap 06:14 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Central Louisiana radar..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

78. hcubed 06:15 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Posted By: bjdsrq at 5:22 PM GMT on June 03, 2007. The 2007 forecast that recently came out by independentwx.com looks to be a bust within the first two days of the season.... From www.independentwx.com/2007 Finally, the intensity of the ridging noted over the Florida peninsula, in combination with developing La Ni�a conditions, argues for more westerly tracks of any tropical cyclones that form in the west Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Thus, no tropical cyclones are forecast to directly hit the west coast of Florida. Looks like you get what you pay for. They'll probably try to argue that the first two were SUB-TROPICAL, not tropical... Member Since: Maggio 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639

79. Patrap 06:15 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Winds to 56knts in the Squalls..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

81. Patrap 06:18 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Bad cells near Hemphill, Texas..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

82. Caymanite 06:19 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Seems like the waves kicked up here by Barry must have stirred up the fish as well. A local fisheman just weighed in a new island record wahoo of 146 lbs 2 ozs. which beats the old record of 105 lbs 10 ozs that was caught on a boat that I was skippering many years ago. See these systems serve many" useful "purposes as well. LOL Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315

83. bjdsrq 06:19 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
LOL What's wrong with talking about Barry JP? It's the subject of this blog thread afterall... and will probably be the only thing tropical to talk about for 2 more weeks at least. Member Since: Luglio 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428

85. Patrap 06:20 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Winds to 56knts in the Squalls..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

86. Fl30258713 06:21 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
So Patrap, Is it gonna be bigger and badder by the time it reaches Fl and south Alabama? Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

87. Patrap 06:21 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Central Louisiana radar..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

89. Drakoen 06:22 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
lol hcubed. interesting. What do you guys think about the current easterly flow acorss Florida? More tropical systems for us? Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

91. Patrap 06:24 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
These can last a long time in the right setup.This one is cruising along in a sweet spot between 2 dry areas.Heres the 4 panel WV..look at Panel 2..Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

92. Patrap 06:26 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Well, said JP. We are not the issuing authority.To outguess the Pros is bad form. I stay away from that. It serves the public no good. The NHC have millions of Lives to protect,We have opinions. Big difference. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111604

93. Drakoen 06:26 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
damn Barry's counter clockwise flow is bringing dry air across Floirda lesser chances for rain. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

95. Fl30258713 06:28 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
It looks to me like it has some serious intentions and possibility to to keep going until it is caught up into what used to be Barry. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

97. NorthxCakalaky 06:30 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Link

99. Drakoen 06:32 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
yes i know. I told you guys that the people that would get the most rain from this system in people in central and southern Florida. Especially people in south Florida. I live in Lake Worth. Rained for over 10 hours boom 7 inches of rain.People closest to the COC recived less rain. which can be blamed for Barry disorganization due the the upper level shear dynamics take its toll on Barry as it lost its heavy deep convection. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

100. NorthxCakalaky 06:32 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Ivan dumped more rain in the N.C mountains than at landfall.Above 3500 23inches of rain. Massive mudslides

101. Fl30258713 06:34 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2007
Tomorrow? Those storms are going to be in NW Fla in probably 3 to 4 hours. As it moves through La it will probably get close enough to the GOM to draw moisture. This doesn't look like a typical afternoon pop up type of storm to me. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

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