Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

sorry but I sooo hope it comes up here to NC

With all of this talk about the strom turning North or even NE, why do the UKMET and BAMM models show the sytem staying West out of Florida or even turning South? Whats going to be steering the storm once it reaches the Gulf?

JV

im givingyou the info im rec.from ham operators..you dont want it i will keep it to myself but my prediction stands..katrina will be a cat 5 and will hit la ..this data has some strangs things taking place with the high in the next 3 to 5 days....ill be back at 10pm...the only thing they were wrong about was the winds 45knots well that might change at 8pm we will see but you wont get any thing early from me anymore i will post...i try to give you guys and early update and all you do is smear me..now i know how lefty feels...do your own forecasting...i already have and idea where katrina cat 5 will go...until 10pm

ya you and hurricane king would be great friends willdd

can anybody give me some good weather sites to go to? I'm tired of only looking at accuweather, weather.com,nws, and flhurricane.com

hey anybody live in la well duck and cover a cat5 is coming your way NOT HA HA AH

For those of you wondering why this is TD12 and not 10, Forcaster Stewert gives a good explanation in his discussion. Link

StormTop your Spam operators told you it was already Katrina but when I look at the NWS website it says TD 12 not Katrina. So what does that tell you about you your predictions and your spam operators and their info?

HAM OPERATORS

Link this site doesnt have a blog but just a lot of stuff

The new discussion is out. . .

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.2N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W 65 KT

sry about the caps not yelling

stormtop

i am interested in the data u provide and anthing anyone else provides and enjoy the sparing between writers

so lets all use all the data provided and make or own interpations

but lets provide the reason - steering curents, water temps ect to come to your conclusion

my local weatherman has TD 12 moving over Miami then going into gulf

The discussion is out...at 5 pm eastern from NHC forecaster Stewart who does a good job. He states that ALL of the models have it crossing Florida and heading into the Gulf of Mexico.

My personal opinion...looks like a north-central gulf to north-eastern gulf landfall as a secondary and final landfall for "Katrina".

sorry guys bout going back and forth with StormFlop sorry StormTop but i believe in karma and I sat in this blog and watched while he fussed and belittled others so now it was his turn to get payback. It's out my system now I'll behave promise (I hope they don't see my fingers crossed behind my back)

That is a very good explanation, napleswx.

weatherwatcher

can you give me that discussion link?

jeff

storm top may be correct the info nhc is using is from the recon today - i believe stormtop is using realtime data from the has - so yes he may be correct

jeff

has should be hams

here are two forecast models for TD12/Katrina click here and here

does anybody know when Dr. masters update will be out? and can anyone who's not stormtop give me some good weather sites to go to?

Is Stormtop really gone until 10PM?? Yes we can now have a real discussion. I think the Ham operators he listens to are in his head..lol..Cmon guys this guy throws out stuuf just to get a reaction from us, cant you guys see that already. The thing to do is let him say his peace and then dont respond, just ignore him.

The GFS and FSU models now seem to move TD 12 up the east coast of FL. I know it's early in the game and that the models vary on reliability, but wondered if anyone had comments...

Also, can anyone tell me when the next model runs are out?

spagetio,

Can you give me a link of those models.

ere is a good reliable model I mainly look at link

Spag I want a link also please

sorry meant here

At one point in one of the discussions, there was this talk about history. Well, I was looking at how the models were predicting different storms this year, and about 80% of the time, they tended to be left of the actual track. Now, apply that here, and we could be looking at further up the florida coast, possibly the georgia/south carolina coast. my money is still the central (say from port st. lucie to the cape) fl coast as the primary landfall, strong ts or maybe light cat 1 (no more than 80mph). then cross fl and head for the ms/al area as a moderate cat 3 (no more than 135mph at landfall). I am not going to wager a guess as to a maximum intensity as i beleive it could make it to a cat 5 if it moves slow enough. i just think that it will experience enough hostility in the atmosphere to not be any stronger at landfall than a cat 3. See what the other two recent hurricanes to head that way did just before landfall. Both weakened slightly before making landfall. I think that this may very well happen here to.
Before anyone rips me apart, just know that I have no meteorlogical tutiledge except what I have read on my own, and I do not pay much attention to models except to get a general idea on which to base my opinions. I enjoy watching the tropics, and just hope that everyone remains safe!!!

Model links...Link...
Also this is good as well....Link...18Z should be coming out and then later tonite 0Z..

Link

It's the same one that's been posted here before. I had the models set at 850 mb vorticity...and I really don't know what I'm doing so please let me know if I should set them differently.

New to the blog, so I hope the link works...

There is a very strong bermuda high which ain't goin nowhere the trough won't even make it into florida and very very rarely have moved into florida in august,that would explain why the ga/sc situation is next to immpossible.

THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

The NHC did say it become a hurricane before landfal because sear s low and it is moving over 90 degree water so it could get strong but don't panic about it getting strong for those of you in florida ok?

18Z model run...Link..Next run at 0Z..Later tonite...

jedkins

will it move more westward due to the high and jetstream?

Of course I am in florida too but I live on the west coast near clearwater so the worst would be very heavy rain and tropical storm force winds,also the storms circulation is large mianly because it is in a moist atmosphere and it will likely be a large cyclone at landfall.

Dont know jet streem shouldn't mean much but the NHC track I will follow for now the ridge may relax or hold off a bit so it may cross west palm and then then Fort myers or maybe me.

Oh my...I have tears in my eyes from laughing so hard. Swore I wouldn't come back on here again but it's kind of like staring as you pass an accident.

Stormflop...I wish there was some way to chain you to a tree in the middle of a Cat 5. Everyone & everything around you spared...only you feeling the effects of the beast.

I know I told you this yesterday but I MUST repeat it today after reading your posts...you're an idiot!!!

FSU 12Z run is interesting on weakness in High...Link...Moving it up coast...Still cant see this happening, but its out there.

An Exclusive 4:15pmCDT Update:

Tropical Depression Twelve Moving Slowly NW through Central Bahamas

Issued: 4:15 PM CDT Tuesday, August 23, 2005


Latest reconnaissance data indicates Tropical Depression 12 is centered near 23.2N 75.5W at 4 PM CDT, moving northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Associated thunderstorms extend across most of the central and eastern Bahamas southwestward to the coast of Cuba and are most concentrated to the northeast, east and south of the center. Conditions aloft are favorable for the depression to become a tropical storm on Wednesday morning and there is even the potential it could strengthen to near hurricane strength in about 48 hours. Steering currents favor a continued slow movement to the west-northwest to northwest at 6 to 8 mph and this would bring it to the southeast coast of Florida by late Thursday, most likely as a strong tropical storm or possibly as a hurricane.

Beyond the 3 day time period, we think steering currents will weaken. This will bring the system slowly across southern Florida, emerging off the southwest coast of Florida late Friday or early Saturday. A great deal of uncertainty exists concerning the strength of a ridge of high pressure to the north of this system early next week. The strength of this ridge will play a key role on where it makes a second landfall. We think the most likely scenario is for a second landfall to occur somewhere between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. We think it is unlikely would track as far west as Texas, but we cannot yet completely rule out that possibility.


Meteorologist: Mark Mathiesen

What with the discrepancy between the models and the uncertainty about possible landfall once TD 12 crosses Florida, it looks like Home Depot's gonna make a killing in Florida again this year.

I'm a new guy too, but I get the feeling it's going to start drifting to the left of the forcast, crossing S. Florida as a strong TS-weak cat 1, then head to LA, maybe MS, as a moderate to strong cat 3. Maybe if its lucky cat 4. I might go with Stormtop and say 5, but I think it will be going too fast and won't have time to intensify that much. This storm has been confusing us for the last two weeks, so I wouldn't really be surprised wherever it goes.

except maybe Montana.

check out this model and how SLOW it moves it across FL and then takes it up and away click here

For those looking for models here is most of them:

Link

Usually click on 850mb Vorticity,then you can see the animation.

So... Random convection - or has the center of TD12 jumped back to the east of 75W (approx 23.5N 74.8W)...?

i hav updated my now td 12 blog for south florida. i happen to be in the direct path of td 12 so updates from td 12 will sart to happen when it gets here.

look at the accuweather discussion. I do agree that 12 will become a TS tonight as all of us do. I diverge from many of you about the forecast track. Read and then I will explain. . .

The environment will be remain favorable overall for development the next couple of days and it will strengthen into a tropical storm soon. When it does achieve tropical storm strength, it will be named Katrina. While crossing the Bahamas, the storm will cause strong winds, excessive rainfall, and a storm surge of up to 5 feet as well as battering waves near the coast.
The storm's next target appears to be southern Florida. A tropical storm watch will likely be issued tonight for parts of southeast Florida, as the effects of this feature may be felt as early as late Wednesday night. The worst of the storm for southeastern Florida will come on Thursday and spread northwestward into southwestern and parts of southern Florida. The main threat to Florida is going to be flooding rains and the potential for tornado-producing thunderstorms, but if the storm intensifies rapidly between now and Thursday, then there will be the potential for strong winds as well. The worst case scenario is for a Category 1 hurricane to strike the coast of south Florida on Thursday.

After striking south Florida, the storm will emerge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will slowly push northwestward. The most likely track is for this storm to make a second landfall over the central or eastern Gulf Coast on Sunday or Sunday night. During its time over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the storm may strengthen into a hurricane. However, at least one computer model shows that the storm could track as far west as southeastern Texas, while another shows that the storm will brush the east coast of Florida and head toward the Carolinas.
At this point, residents of the Bahamas and south Florida who are in the path of this storm should immediately begin preparations for this storm's arrival. Those who live further north in Florida should monitor this storm carefully, and those with interests along the Gulf Coast east of Galveston and along the southeast coast should monitor this depression's feature carefully. Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical low pressure system is now located near 18 North, 37 west is showing signs of intensifying. Another tropical depression may be forming here as well. This area is moving toward the west at 10-15 knots. This area will be no threat to land in the immediate future, but will need to be watched as a potential threat down the road.

The models have been shifting farther north in response in a weakness in high pressure ridge to its north. A trof may come off the SC coast and pull 12 farther north. It seems unlikely but 3 days ago it seemed it was impossible for anything associated with td 10 would even organize. I'm just giving you the possibilities. I still think anyone from Key west to Charleston should watch this closely. So far td 10/12 has none everything that at one time seemed unlikely and near impossible. It did it by reorganizing and it could do it by turning north.

For it to do so it would need these two things. . .
1)a trof comes off SC coast and pulls it north
2)The high pressure to the north weakens and allows td 12 to move nw-nnw longer.

BOTH of these things would probably need to happen if there is any chance of a GA/SC landfall. (20%)

It is something that we are speaking about a strengthing storm that just days ago almost everyone burried this possibility. How little we know about tropical development!

STORMTOP....what would Amateur radio operaters have for info regarding hurricanes other than for propagation?