Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

WTNT22 KNHC 232025
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 75.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

thank you cjnew i rest my case.......

I just posted my thoughts on my blog. Take a look, think about it, and tell me what you think. I will add one thing, though, IF it has winds of 45 knts, like STORMTOP says, then I think that it COULD, I emphasize, COULD, become a MINIMAL hurricane before striking either Miami-Dade county or the Keys. If it strikes the Keys, then I think it MIGHT have a chance of being stronger, but I DO NOT think that a cat. 5 landfall is likely.

It will be intresting to see how the models act over the next 24-36 while this thing is developing. What is the deal with Lefty's wave? Did the center redevelop under the convection?

The adivsory on 12 will be out shortly (any second now I get an e mail from them.) Here is the forecast advisory. . .

000
WTNT22 KNHC 232025
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

If that track is right, My coordinates are 26.1 and 80.5W
Whatever this mess is , its gonna be right on my doorstep
Im in Fort Lauderdale

That is, it could be stronger than I currently think it will get if it crosses the Keys as a hurricane.

landfall near west palm beach?

Sorry, I did not know that someone had already beaten me to the punch.

have you seen the cone yet ...lol!

Let's get back to 007's questions. WHat are the chances of this thing following a cousre closer to the GFS. I know everyone says the GFS sucks, but does that not mean that the odds are getting better that it will be right one of these days. Not to mention all models have been slowly moving N.

Long time reader, first time poster. Wow, I feel like a bad radio show caller. Heh.

My grandparents in South Florida part-time (they're up here now in the Pittsburgh area) and are four blocks from the beach. I've been an avid storm watcher since age 5. (Thank you John Hope.)

TD 12 will become a hurricane once it enters the Gulf. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out but some of the "gut feeling" gloom and doom of a Cat 5 coming from a few people (ahem STORMTOP! :-D) is a bit over the top at this point.

I'm going with the gut of a minimal hurricane when it makes landfall on the Florida coast and reorganizing as a Cat 2 over the eastern Gulf. Then...it's anybody's guess. Let's see what the first model run shows. There's no question it's going to strike South Florida, it's all a matter of where at this point.

Looks like a lot of intelligent and thoughtful posters come around here. I look forward to reading everyone's thoughts.

Ships has it at 89mph in 72 hrs.

The environment will be remain favorable overall for development the next couple of days and it could strengthen tropical storm. The movement seems to be most likely to the west-northwest across the Bahamas toward southern Florida. Even if the storm does not become a tropical storm it will still bring heavy rainfall across the Bahamas from southeast to northwest today through Thursday. The rain should arrive across southeast Florida Thursday and spread north up the peninsula of Florida later Thursday into the weekend. Of course, if the system becomes a tropical storm, then winds and even a minor storm surge become a concern. From Florida, where this feature then goes is still uncertain. It could continue to drift west-northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico or it could turn northward and head toward Georgia and the Carolinas.

The bottom line with this situation is that all with interests along the Gulf Coast and southeast coast, as well as the Bahamas, should monitor this situation carefully, particularly residents of the Florida Peninsula.

A tropical low pressure system is now located near 17 North, 36 west is showing signs of intensifying and a tropical depression may be forming here as well. This area is moving toward the west at 10-15 knots. This area will be no threat to land in the immediate future, but will need to be watched as a potential threat on down the road.

gentle men look a at td 12 it going to have to move n really quick to do what the models are doing and if u look both at the ir and vis it building more over cuba i'm seeing a westery movement not nnw

We were so lucky last year here, the power was out for only 6 days....after frances and that was 80-100 miles away.

Im not so sure we can dodge this one. In my area , one can sneeze and the power goes out. lawdy.

It seems to me that this year, all the models have tended to show the storms going more to the left than they actually have, and have adjusted to the right with successive runs. So, if that continues to be the case here, as it already seems with the models moving more north, we could definately be looking at a central fl to north fl storm.
Last year, the models tended to guess too far to the right. Who knows, it is mother nature!!!!!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the convection is substantially separated from the circulation... Afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba are making it look like the storm is drifting west - but in reality the circulation is heading NW. Either the center will reform under the convection - or the storm will take longer to get its act together if the convection must reform to the north.

hi back so whats new does stormtop have another crazy prediction out yet

you're absolutely right rain

Anyone think this thing may come towards the Houston area?? That may give it some time to strenghten! Looks like this thing is on more of a westerly track not so much nw

big daddy im just saying whats gooing to happen you are getting my first hand experience on this storm..katrina which i will say now she is strengthing rapidly over the warm waters...all im sayin is i think it will be a cat 2 as it crosses the keys and s fla and then turns nore to the nw and goes inland as a cat 5 somewhere west of grand isle..i dont want this to happen but i have been to familiar with the guls for so long this is going to happen..the nhc is saying cat 3 i disagree i think katrina will be the first cat 5 170mph winds when it comes on shore sometime late friday night or early sat morning....look for a hurricane watch to go up for s fla and the keys at 10pm which i said way back ago on this blog when i got the new info from my buddies in the bahamas....the current winds at that time were 45knots...we will see wheen the 5pm advisory comes out...

jeff when doesn't he? he'll be ok his doctor prescribed new meds but he hasn't picked them up yet

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204602.shtml?3day the cone is out

The public advisory is out. 12 is moving nw at this time and it says hurricane watches may need to be posted tonight. Accuweather says that 12 could turn farther north and hit GA/SC and the NHC says 12 will be a hurricane by sunday if it reaches the gulf BUT it also says that it is expected to move NW for the next 24 hours.In that track a northward turn is not out of the question. What are the odds of it coming here?

What are the steering current Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico as this storm moves in? Could this storm head toward Galveston?

weatherwatcher, where are you?

oh gosh willdd1979 almost wet my pants thats so funny ha ha lol

wc had the low pressure at about 23n/76w

nhc has it 23.2n/75.5w @ 2100utc

which is right?

hey evan are you signed on

I'm with you Evan I think this could be another Alicia for the houston area... call me crazy but this one will be hard to pin down. . at least fla may be spared major damage..

I would go with the NHC, since they are the ones issuing the advisories.

Yea, but I have a feeling a future hurricane this year will have Florida all over it! lol :)

so its a depression cool didnt think it would become anthing at all ever again but you know weather wow

ill be bcak at 10pm and we will see if everything i said so for is crazy....as i type this im getting a few more pages of info thats being faxed to me ...let me go over this tracks ill be back at 10pm....keep and eye on this especially the keys.....stormtop

Why do we need model and cones? The NHC should just hire StormTop with his ESP like ability. StormT-You are no more trustworthy than the models. Please quite stating your ideas as fact. They are opinions and at time they are good, but they are only somewhat likely opinions.

jeff this is not 10 its 12

oh stomtop dont forget to get your meds just a reminder

Uh Oh StormTop 5pm advisory is out and it's not Katrina as you swore up & down it was a few minutes ago what now? do you admit you were wrong (not likely) or do you change your prediction (yeah that sounds more like you)

oh sry get them mixed up all the time

TS Warnings Out For the Bahamas!

StormTop this is a quote from you "ill be bcak at 10pm and we will see if everything i said so for is crazy...."
Yes stormtop everything you said so far is crazy when you talk & spell your words like that they offer english as a 2nd language better sign up.

Just looked at the latest visible loop and it looks like the broad center is now north of Long Island Bahama...a lot of storms firing off in that area, and you can see the low level circulation.

one of us might need to go pick up his meds for him jeff and make sure he's wearing that special helmet the doctor gave him.

willdd1979 you just keep them coming ha ha lololol

STORMTOP:

I'm not maligning your opinion, just going with a different view. :-D

Anyone remember Andrew? Didn't it do a big nasty explosion right off the Florida coast once it hit the Gulf Stream?

I'm erring on the side of caution here. I'll wait for the next advisories and hey, I could be wrong. It happened once. Heh.

Steve's blog says that another storm is developing in the eastern atlantic. He also says that if "Katrina" turns into a TS and reaches the gulf of Mexico it would eventually turn NE obiviously making another landfall. Has anyone considered the prospect that. . .

1) 12 turns towards GA/SC
or
2) There are two landfalls along the FL coast

that would not be good weatherwatcher

The gorgia/southcarolina possibility is close to immposible because the high is way to strong and the trough will disapate before it would get close enough to pick it up.

Exercpt from Steve's blog. . .

The model forecasts do NOT indicate this system will intensify into a hurricane over the next 4 days, but a strong depression
and POSSIBLY a tropical storm could. The longer range period beyond 4 days has this system making it into the eastern
Gulf, then meandering around before it ultimately heads northeastward. A very interesting system watch at the least.

sorry but I sooo hope it comes up here to NC