Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

She has jumped to 24N 76W as her LLC

If you zoom in on the last frame in this water vapor loop, you will see a nasty little pocket of dry air near the LLC. That might just be what is bothering our TD at the moment. If that little pocket were to break up, the outflow boundary looks like it can push the rest of the dry air far enough out to keep it away from the center... Link

will wait for the microwave data to determine the cnter but yhats pretty much where the recon flight deternined the center to be

The amazing thing about systems at this stage is their ability to reform underneath the area of lowest pressure...i.e, the current convection developed at 24N 76W. There is a slight chance that I may be correct on this one..

while the dry air might be limiting the convection on the western side the major problem is that this is classic formation. after re-orgnising there is always a lull and sometimes a drop in itensity, same concept of a eye wall replacement cycle. she will be itensifying after the lul steadily until she makes land fall as jose did. and while there is dry air, its nowhere near as dry as some of the air further away so its not a mjor hinderance. i tried to tell yall this is what was going to happen. u can already see the build back of deepconvection in the cdo. this is just how these storms operate

ur center location is pretty much the center location given in the vortex message by the recon flight

Lefty, I have no real doubts that this syetm will be near hurricane status Katrina by Friday, near the SE Florida Coast

and thats exactly my forcast. i just stated it would have a 6-12 hr lull after reorginising and then since she would be orginisedmore like a cyclone she would be able to intensify more like some of us expect. we are about 6 hrs into the lull and should see a marked increase in the convection over the next 6 hrs. she will be a ts probly with the 11am update. all these things i stated at 10pm last night. sofar word for word its all happening like i said it would

heres a good limk to the navy site showing the past 8-190 hrs and the nice blow up of deep cpnvection, i believe the next 6 hrs will be exciting as we watch the birth of this storm

Link

All the same for the 11 PM update with the exception of the storm a bit stronger that before and 40 NM North. I believe it to be Katrina by 5, 8 at the latest, and a sligth shift of the forecast further North, then slower late in the period.

Tropical Wave between the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands appears to be getting a bit stronger... Something brewing there too?

wouldn't doubt it raindancer. It wasn't even there 48 hours ago, but this time of year, with these conditions it is likely

def something to watch

and 79 i doubt by 5 but i could see by 8. she will be bubbling up over the next 6-12 hrs

Lefty, I have found the dVorak satellite to be invaluable throughout the course of this system, from TD 10 to now, try this link. It allows us to se nearly a visible image, at least a mock one.. Link

thanks, thats one of the many windows i have open already lol

79 u should know by now theres not to much more info availible i am not using lol

Then do you see the 70 NM jump that the Center made during the past 6 hours to the North? its approx at 24.5N 76.5W

i feelme and you are probly the most aware if u will in this blog. atleast thats how i have felt from what i have seen

New recon guys...hello Katrina! Flight level winds of 45 kt. qualifies as a TS, so as I mentioned at the 2 am intermediate advisory, they'll upgrade the system at 5.Link

dunno bout the center jumping yet. still wating for the microwave data to see whats going on inside the storm but i noted that, also u must know the nhc has stated their center location could be as much as 30nm off course so the jumo may be not that big after all. but yes i do see it

coo; guess ur 5a, beat my 8am 79 lol

zeenster, that link didnt work

just check the vortex message at the nhc website

Recon doesn't show that giant leap to the north...23.55 N, 76.18 W ... Guess the NHC was correct in not trusting their estimate...

lefty, I hope all those years at school helped in the 4 hours differenc of my prediction..LOL

lol yeah

Rats. Try this one, then. Link

u know i was agreeing with u but i need to have the data first lol thats how i work. i am pretty sure if i had a microwave sat img it would have shown a ts and would have been pushing for 5 as well but these damn sat can't ever seeem to pass over the storm

I'm blind, I still don't see the winds mentioned. The link I saw was fron 2 AM.

click refrsh and it will refersh it, the nhc site is weird.

000
URNT12 KNHC 240609
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 020 kt
G. 308 deg 071 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 772 m
J. 22 C/ 773 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 05:25:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
BANDING E TO S ON RADAR

Hurricane 79 - try the one I posted a couple minutes ago. You will see the flight level winds at the bottom of the message. The time index says 07:39Z, so it's definitely a new one. It's just late and you're bleary-eyed...not blind, lol.

sorry wrong vortex message


000
URNT12 KNHC 240756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:39:30Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 128 deg 036 kt
G. 044 deg 097 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 20 C/ 769 m
J. 21 C/ 768 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 06:40:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 40 / 31NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

Not calling it Katrina yet.

5 AM is out.

Ok, I see the new strength they found. That must have been on their return flight? The re-fixed the center not too far from 2 hours before, on their outbound flight. Oh, well, I will wake up and see around 9 AM,,,,Thanks all!

yea thought that might happen. they took off for the flght level and said it equates to 30 kts at the surface i guess, though 15 kts seems like quite a bit. so damn conservitive

ok lefty, it appears that 8 AM may be the right choice...I think I may make my track forecast after all now. (6Z should be out)

yeah but watch, they will wait to 11am like i said after all, seems like something they would do, the crack heads down their lol

just saw a report on the news that 50 percent of online users still use dsl. i can't see not having broadband lol

iam sorry imeant dial up lol

well - where I live, my DSL package is HALF what a broadband package costs, and I'm a single mom on a budget, y'know??

By broadband, I mean cable-based like Road Runner...

I take that back, I want to wait until later in the morning to se more trends in the current track. The models are way too uncertain to make forecast tracks every 4 hours....

sorry i meant dial-up,dsl is broadband

I'm sure there are places where you can't get broadband, aren't there? I know you can only get DSL in certain areas. Dial-up was such a pain in the south end. Still, I remember back when we thought getting on "Prodigy" was totally amazing, and we weren't fazed by the wait. Of course, we didn't know better....

lolyeash

Well, I'm gonna grab a few zzz's so I can be ready to lay in a few groceries before I get all rained on and can't drive on the flooded roads around here. No big deal - Cape Coral will just get real wet with this one. :-) G'nite all - I'm off to Oz......

i been wandering anyone know why there is a blackout everynight

no post for 2 hours? everyone still asleep?

hello im in nassau bahamas.its dead calm here no rain

Good morning all. Lefty ... Satellites "blackout" every day due to a lack of solar energy. Actually an eclipse. They power themselves off until they are out of the eclipse and back into the sun's influence.