Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

i feel u weather watcher on the 2 named storms. east wave lookslittle betetr and appears to be fighting off the dry air. we also experienced major tornado outbreaks here in va from those same systems as well as some major flooding, i do not think there will be much impact in sc or ga with this system. just doesn't look like she will be ableto move far enough north and she is a small system right now

her eis a 37ghz microwave pass of eat atlantic wave. she appears to be trying to form a new center on der the convection with some banding around that convection. the circulation is oddly shapped right now so it will be 12-24 hrs befor she can be upgraded to a depression but depending on wind est she could just jump straight to ts status.

Link

she's definately going through a major reorganization right now. You can see the ULL weakening and the dry air moistening up, the ridging is starting to build aloft and outflow is increasing. She seems to be waiting for a burst of convection...this band's not gonna do it unless it grows a lot.

i want to see the next microwave pass. remebr what taht one looked like cuase the next should have the band almost all the way around the center maybe open to the sw but she could have a closed "eye" wall and then i woul have to say she is def a ts, should be some nice sat passes in the next couple hours so thats what i am waiting for

It looks to me on the latest radar that you can see some low leve clouds that appear to make it look like the center is moving due north. What is causing the dry air to the NE and the shear?

Something intresting 72 hrs from now. . .

Link

Will the front impact the westward movement of the wave?

probly not, won't be strong enough to affect the system

Stormjunkie, is it moving north?

Dry air caused by ULL that is to the north of storm, was wrapping in some dry air. Shear is being caused by anticyclonic flow around High pressure to the NW of storm centered over S. ALA and Georgia.

your just seeing the re-orginisation and movement could be erratic. no real shear affecting this storm. overall movement over the next 12-36 hrs will be nw. at some point she will turn w or just north of due west. when that happens we will know what impacts this storm will have and the idea of how strong she can be. the next 2 days will tell us alot.

also as i mentioned earlier slow moving storms move erratic, as well as a storm re-orginising. storm track is a consensus of movement over a period of time so you have to look at the longterm movement not short term. so for right now just watch it, the movement will be erratic but overall nw for the short term

Dr Lyons just made the statement that this storm may
move over south Florida and stall for about 48 hrs, according to some models. Anybody seen models that show this? 48 plus hours of rain will be MAJOR PROBLEMS down here.

check this out cane. here is a 85 mhz microweave pas at 2pm

Link

now compare it to the latest pass of the 85ghz microwave

a href="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?
YEAR=2005&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=12L.NONAME&PROD=85h&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ssmi&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050823.1809.aqua1.x.89h.12LNONAME.30kts-1008mb-229N-752W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/12L.NONAME/ssmi/85h&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al122005.05082318.gif&ATCF_NAME=al122005" target="_blank">Link

you can see the well define cenetr and the wrapping around of the banding after to reorginisation started

sorry one more post before i go. I have to respectfully disagree with you lefty. There is plenty of shear on the west side of this storm right now. And will be for the next 24 hrs. That is why there is no convection on west side currently...Link

sorry second link got messed up here it is

Link

I know the 18Z GFS slows it down considerably before moving it North over Florida. He might be looking at the new 0Z info.

if ulook at your map, the exact cenetr of the storm is well under a 5kt shear zone as well as in microwave data u can see the storm is really small and shrinking as she gets more compact. you should see a increase in convection on all sides in the next few hours as she foinishes re-orginising

Sorry have to disagree again, shear will preclude devlopment on west side of storm for the next 24 hours. This is not going to develop fast anytime soon.

actually after looking at ur link again the whole system is under the 5kt line check ur info little better.

all the models are divergent so you can't take one over the other right now. plus it has only been one or 2 model runs since the stormed formed with and exact center it takes 4 or more runs to base a consensus so the best bet is the nhc forcast for right now. we will have to wait and see what the next couple model runs say.

5 kt line extends from a boundary eats of the system all the way to the florida coast. u goota read the numbers. then their is a gradient with a 20 kt shear zone past that over most of florida

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA EAST COAST

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT

steve lyons said that the track it totally uincertain and she couldwhip by florida or stall over her. if she stall she will then move to the north so the next couple days should determine what we have, most movement is determined by strength

i am sorry but the whole system is not that little blob of convection. This storm needs a large area to breed and grow, in order to strengthen. that NE shear in the westerm Bahamas is causing the outflow to choke off on the west side. I am sorry you dont agree with this but thats how these systems develop

Well stormtop is gone...but we still have lefty going on and on and on. They disagree, but one of them has to be right. Hmmmmmmmmm. Very interesting.

Just looking at all the loops, particularly the Dvorak IR loop, you can see the convection concentrating on a new center just south of the NHC position. There's better banding features, though the outflow to the NE seems to be diminishing. This is a sign that the storm is shrinking it's windfield, reorganizing it's broad circulation (with all it's smaller vortices) into a much more concentrated, smaller circulation. I was actually a bit surprised that NHC decided to label it a TD earlier today, as it's organization was very poor. It's looking a lot more like a TD now, however. Once the storm finishes organizing and developing more centralized convection, we should see it rapidly intensify, similar to Jose. But also like Jose, TD12 is unlikely to have much time in which to intensify. My best guess is that we will have a very strong TS or a borderline Cat 1 hurricane on landfall in Florida.

However if the storm stalls and sits out over the bahamas spinning, similar to what Jeanne did last year, we could see a much stronger hurricane. The weak steering could create a situation like that, though it seems unlikely.

Yall need to look at the Wundergrounds 5 day forcast as 11:00 if you have not.LMAO

Hi all, back from work. I'll need to browse around a few minutes before making any comments...

what I see is a 10knt over cat island,and 20knt just offshoar SE fl Coast..thinks between those two the NE shear is killing the convection on the NW side of the storm,and it will move into the higher shear numbers as it progresses WNW to NW...shear only gets worse as it moves farther north for now.

hurricane79....i look forward to your thoughts. A true knowledgable opinion.

exactly xealot, i post 2 microwave links that show the storm about 6 hrs apart and the first was at classification and she was really not that orginised and i was suprised based on that info she was upgraded. the next image shows her a couple hours ago and there is a define center of circulation and banding starting wrap around the center though not impressively yet. waiting on the next microwave passage but feel with her slow movement a cat 1 is not out of the question and track and speed along with strength will determine alot

Thanks outrocket for the backup..lol..

there is no 10 kt zone. it goes from 5 to 20. very clearly no 10 kt zone

hey 79 check out the shear and tell me what u think. here is the link

Link

OK, the system seems to be recovering from the dry air drawn into it for the past 36 hours, with the convection becoming more concentrated, albeit in a comma shape around our center. The convection is elongated due to the dry air to the NW of the system. That dry air should move out fairly quickly now that the system is consolidating. I will be back in a couple minutes once I analyze the model data

Shear is not a problem for this system now. Im going to check a site for a minute to see what the future shear is expected to change to ahead of the storm...Also, I need to look at steering currents.

sou know yellowline is shear gradient and orange lines are wind direction. it goes 5 than some distance it say 20. shear is not an issue, the loss of convection was due to reorginisation and the compacting of the storm. its very clear in the microwave imagery. u will see that convection return in the next few hours i promise you

weatherguy03,dont know if it was a back up...I just clearly se that's a 10 on the link you gave over cat island..you see it,I do...does anyone else?

Ok so tell me why the outflow is choked off on the west side of system?

There are a number of interesting theories in this blog and obviously a number of people are very interested in hurricanes. However, I was wondering if anyone here (other than the one who started this blog) has any formal training in hurricanes and the prediction of their paths. If so, could you please let us know what your training is?
I will be more interested in your theories rather than someone who has no training and is predicting landfall locations and category strengths five days out. Thanks.

u can belive their is shear if u want but u have no clue what this sytem is doing than. its getting compact, all the convection away from the center is dying and consolidation around the center. dry air has helped to limit what convection there would be in that quadrant. check all data please

regardless of training most of us have some background in meterology. i amcurrently working on my degree in meterology, butr most theriories in here are based on peoples own experience and wants if u will for this storm

ok lefty you first..What is your training? you heard Voodoo..lol..Why do you keep talking to me like a child..."check all data please." i am tired of that stuff.

Where are you studying lefty?

the outflow was not cut off, the system shrunk and has taken on a more td look. the cenetr all shrunk and is reall small compared tosome other storms. same thing happened to the convection to the south, it would have not been so quick in dying off if not for dry air intrusion from the north. all this is clearly vis and the cenetr re-orginisation is easy to see in the past microwave imgs which shows the cenetr re-orginising into a more classic looking td. you wills ee those strong tstorms around the center start to wrap arround as the system finishes orginising, at that point u will have a classi signiture of a ts

mary washington university in va

You didnt answer my question lefty.

cause if u looked at all the data u would see the reason the convection diesd off, and if thats talking to u like a child i dunno how tophrase it any diff, also even if the shear is 10 kts, thats well in the acceptible range of 5-10 kts. the reall sitution is whats going on u can't see. sodid you look at all the microwave data?

I'm inclined to agree with lefty. There is some shear, but the primary limiting factor is the dry air. Take a look at the water vapor images.. it's clear as day that dry air is affecting the NW quadrant. However the infusion of dry air should slow, the pocket of dry air is not very large, and is unlikely to slow intensification signifigantly once the storm becomes better organized. Also, as lefty points out, the convection is becoming more centralized, and appears to be wrapping around the new center.

If you want to see a sheared system, take a look at the strong tropical wave out in the middle of the atlantic. It's badly sheared, it's convection is far away from the circulation center. Though it seems to be putting up a decent fight against the shear...

weatherguy, I'd like to answer the question if I may

i answered ur questions u just can't wait foprme tothype it, also did u look at the microwave data. answer my question

I know this sounds crazy, but I would like to wait for the GFS model to come out in about 30 minutes, in order to break the tie between the computer models and my satellite, upper air data analyzation.

Mary Washington??? I will have to check it out then. Just to let you guys know; and believe me I worked in TV for a few years, and some of the meterologist there were very talented with no degrees..lol..But I have a BS and a MS in meterology from Rutgers University. Again I dont tout this around or anything, and it really doesnt make much difference here, but thats that.