96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
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PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060809 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060809 1800 060810 0600 060810 1800 060811 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 62.6W 14.7N 65.1W 15.4N 67.7W
BAMM 13.6N 59.7W 13.8N 63.2W 14.3N 66.5W 14.8N 69.6W
A98E 13.6N 59.7W 14.0N 64.8W 14.2N 69.2W 14.2N 72.8W
LBAR 13.6N 59.7W 14.1N 63.9W 15.1N 67.9W 16.1N 71.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060811 1800 060812 1800 060813 1800 060814 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.3W 18.3N 75.2W 20.6N 80.0W 22.0N 83.8W
BAMM 15.4N 72.5W 16.2N 78.0W 17.2N 83.7W 18.2N 89.4W
A98E 14.0N 75.4W 14.3N 79.5W 14.9N 83.5W 16.1N 88.4W
LBAR 17.3N 74.9W 20.0N 79.9W 19.3N 84.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 54KTS 68KTS 75KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
is this for 96L?
...
I myself sort people into 10 groups to keep things simple...
LOL
...
I myself sort people into 10 groups to keep things simple...
LOL
1)the haves
2)the have nots
3)the haves who dont wantanyone to know they are haves
4)the have nots who dont wantanyone to know they are have nots
5)the haves who want everyone to know they are haves
6)the have nots who want welfare
7)the haves who want welfare
8)the have nots who think they are haves
9)the have nots who become haves..but don't anyone to know they were ever have nots
10)perfect people
If it was weak it would follow like to the one on the top...stronger the one on the bottom. Unless that high over Mexico goes away quick.
credit cimss~ if you go there, your looking at this in near real time...start hitting the -3hrs button repeatedly & watch the high over Mex. It was way stonger lastnight, looks to be dying... guess we wait & see.
From FLhurricane.com
Upon zooming in quite a bit on 10N 35W one can make out a weak, but sizable, low level circulation embedded within the northern portion of the ITCZ. Looks like it may stay north enough as to not become devoured back into the ITCZ, and perhaps slowly trend WNW. If that is where they meant to place 97 this all makes more sense (As splitting 96 into two distinct centers at this point seems entirely premature, especially given that the 22.5N 49W coc is so much better developed than the pimple near 20N)
Secondly- is this 97L that looks like a screaming comet of water vapor heading for the islands? I know thats just because of its interaction with 96L but it still looks like mean, lean storm brewin' machine.
THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
Link
we got a new one?
yes
Need to see over the next 6 hours to see if the pressure continues to fall then we may have something.
Winter Weather Forecast is out.
Maps/Charts/NAO/Major Winter weather discussions here. Winter Prediction
Stormtop Stormtop Stormtop
"Isaac"(maybe)like Irene?
I agree that the new African wave looks impressive.
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