96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 — Blog Index
this map will show you the 1011mb low and geting stonger
the wave at 16 N 56 W is showing signs of a developing circulation. As it is steadily pulling away from the influence of 96L it needs to be watched
The close up vis from the GHCC site shows this very clearly
Link
not much happened while you were gone. Mostly blob watching
the tail end of a front should always be watched from now through the end of Nov but sometimes you need to look in more than one direction or something may sneak up on you
LOL
bb later
Last night at 10pm the temp was 64, the dewpoint was 61. How is it possible that the low this morning was 57? I thought the temp couldn't go below the dewpoint?????????
U must to have had drier air move in overnight and the temp can not go below the dew point.
How 'bout what's going on in the NL Cent?
Anybody see anything that would have caused the DP to drop?
Ike, there wasn't a front or anything forecast to come in that would bring drier air.
How 'bout what's going on in the NL Cent?
Sometimes it'll do that where the dew point drops at night. Why...not sure...I'm not a met. I could understand it if a cold front came thru. It does that here in the Florida panhandle sometimes w/o a frontal passage.
1 1/2 games out...it's unbelievable. Cards had their game last night...up 5-2 w/Carpenter pitching and blew it. I watched both games on mlb.tv.
GO STROS!!!!!
Winter Weather Outlooks Maps charts and Major Discussion on Nor`easters and NAO
Maps charts and discussions
Now the dewpoint is 55, last night at 10p it was 61.
Anybody see anything that would have caused the DP to drop?
Yeah, it dewed. That dries out the air.
"Dude", thanks for the answer...gotta go to work.
RIGHT Next to land it has developed a CDO almost as good as Monica!!!!
Did it work?
now that's funny
There is some by storm stuff in there. Amazing stuff on Katrina.
Not the current blog for view from the surface but the one before has some great Katrina stuff at the bottom.
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 — Blog Index