Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nice eyewall forming in Chanchu.

"It's a little early to be talking about that [low tornado counts]. It's only May 12."

Yes, but the next 10-15 days are forecast to be very quiet, especially over the tornado alley. It's looking likely that both March and April will have more tornados than May.

Chanchu should weaken a bit before landfall, but this is very bad news for Hong Kong. The track takes Chanchu right towards it!

Hmmm.. Lake Huron huh. So that's why they're called 'hur' ricanes.

Posted By: louastu at 9:58 PM GMT on May 11, 2006.
Hurricanes can not form over land, but I think it is possible for them to form over The Great Lakes. It is possible that a tropical system formed over Lake Huron in 1996.

Link

Link

TampaSteve's early "off-the-cuff" predictions for Hurricane Season 2006:

18 Named Storms
12 Hurricanes
Of those 12 hurricanes...
9 will reach Cat 2
5 will reach Cat 3
3 will reach Cat 4
2 will reach Cat 5

At least one major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricane will make landfall in the Carolinas.

The Tampa/Sarasota/Ft. Myers coast will get a "close shave" by a major hurricane that sneaks into the Gulf of Mexico...the eye will pass within 100 miles of the coast but will not make landfall until it reaches the FL Panhandle. Yes, I predict the FL Panhandle gets smacked once again.

Comments???

I have created a page for people to post predictions for 2006. For discussion about predictions, someone else needs to create a blog for that purpose.

Here's the link to my blog.

9+5+3+2=12? :D

I think he is saying that of the 9 cat-2's, 5 will reach cat-3, and so on.

rxse7en, could be the case, any cat5 hurricane must have also been a cat4, cat3, and cat2 at some point. A hurricane that just instantly popped up as a cat5 would scare me.

Posted By: SafeInTexas at 6:11 PM GMT on May 12, 2006.
A hurricane that just instantly popped up as a cat5 would scare me.

Isn't that pretty much what Wilma did last year?

TampaSteve, I don't think the Florida panhandle will be hit by a major hurricane or any hurricane possibly. The eastern trough will be in place all summer and will direct anything entering the gulf either into the southern Florida Peninsula or the western gulf.

Another "Instant" Pop-Up Cat5: Andrew

Eventhough Many Here Were Watching Wilma Ramp Up, Just How Rapidly She Intensified was Astonishing & Frightening.
(re:HillsboroughBay's, Dr Masters & Steve Gregory's Blogs from 2005/October 19th 11PM to 20th 2AM.)

The Huron Hurricane is similar to what is known as Polar Lows or Arctic Hurricanes

Polar Low

Posted By: louastu at 9:58 PM GMT on May 11, 2006.
Hurricanes can not form over land, but I think it is possible for them to form over The Great Lakes. It is possible that a tropical system formed over Lake Huron in 1996.

That system, as well as the January 1995 system that was seen in the Mediterranean, were most likely polar systems. These differ from tropical cyclones in that the surface feed air is substantially colder than the water surface. They are typically smaller and more short-lived than their tropical cousins, but can produce fierce winds, storm surges, and blizzard conditions.



A famous open-topped (no CDO) polar low photographed in 1987. Note the segmented eyewall, which is often seen in such systems.

I got this article from this site.

One final, extremely interesting "hurricane" that affected the Great Lakes must be mentioned to make this article complete. While this storm was not from remnants of a tropical system, its development over Lake Huron had many uncanny likenesses to tropical systems...

The first likeness was its timing, forming over the Great Lakes right at the height of the typical hurricane season, September 11-15th, 1996. What started as a typical core-cold 500 MB low pressure system evolved into a warm-core system as it settled over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, in particular, Lake Huron. The low pressure system actually had moved past Lake Huron but then retrograded, or was "drawn back", to the relatively warm waters of Lake Huron. (Similar to the tropics, the Great Lakes usually reach their warmest water temperatures late August into mid September.) The storm then deepened and intensified at the lower levels of the atmosphere compared to aloft, typical of a warm-core low. It is believed that the warm waters of Lake Huron and associated low level instability over the lake were, to a large extent, the major contributing factors in this storm's evolution. The storm went on to form a broad cyclonic circulation, including the "spiral bands and eye", typically seen in hurricanes! At one point, the cyclone produced tropical storm force winds (39 - 73 mph) and some of the spiral bands even had rainfall exceeding 10 cm (better than four inches), causing some flooding.

This "Hurroncane" reached its maximum intensity during the day on September 14th, when a central pressure of 29.34 inches (993 MB) was recorded in the late morning by a Lake Huron buoy that fortunately was positioned, at one point, in the "eye". By 2 PM, that "eye" measured close to 20 miles across and had a ring of tall convective clouds surrounding it, strongly resembling that of an "eye wall". The convective showers encircled the "eye" well out over 300 miles. As the "eye" moved to the southwest (retrograded), over the aforementioned buoy, the surface wind backed from west at close to 35 mph to the southeast, and then diminished to near 10 mph. After, the "eye" continued to track to the southwest, away from the buoy, and the surface wind backed further to the northeast, and briefly attained tropical storm force. A similar scenario but with varying wind speeds, would also be expected at the ocean's surface if a tropical system retrograded from northeast to the southwest overhead. In addition, the air temperature rose from 13°C (55°F) in the spiral shower bands, to near 18°C (64°F), which was also the lake temperature, in the clearing above the "eye". The storm weakened overnight as the lake temperature dropped 5°C (9°F). The lower water temperature helped greatly in weakening the storm as a result of the lower latent heat supply.

Sorry for the long post.

That radar loop is beautiful, though not quite as impressive as it was yesterday.

I will be back later.

Michael, that thing won't be an extratropical system. It won't even begin transition until it is over land and the trough picks it up. It will weaken due to the lower SSTs near the coast, but extratropical transition is almost out of the question.

That Radar Image Is Just Freaky-Looking!

(~~shivers~~) We Know It's Different But
Still Sends a Chill Down Your Spine.(ewww)

BTW, May Is National Mental Health Awareness Month.
Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Symptoms frequently exhibit in those who've experienced a hurricane. Know The Signs To Help Yourself & Love Ones.

PSA Over!

My last post was referring to Chanchu.

I heard this morning it snowed 8" as a result of that cutoff low somewhere in Wisconsin. Wouldn't it be something if the temps dropped a little and the thing sat up there and cranked two or three feet of wet snow on them.
So much for May flowers huh.

A quick note on the comet thing. They were not saying that the main core of the comet was going to hit. They were saying that this comet has broken into so many fragments, this is where the "danger" lies. They were saying some "may" be too small to pick up until the last moments. They said maybe a few days until impact. I have looked into this fairly well. Heard about this thing like a month or so ago on "Coast to Coast". It does not "seem" to be any threat or so I have read. The guy that broke this story has VERY wild ideas on where & why.

http://www.savelivesinmay.com/Eric-Julien-25-MAY-2006-En.htm

FlCrackerirl... I can vouch that flood is a depressing thing, and it hits you worse some time after the event. My store and contents were ruined in a flash flood about two years ago. I just started snapping out of it about six months ago. What began to perk me up was that I started to sell a lot of the things which I salvaged. I can't imagine how people feel who lose everything down to their clothes.

Though similiar to the polor lows, I still think its the Huroncane was a bit different as it did form a warm core for a short time. Polar lows don't, right?

Posted By: Levi32 at 6:26 PM GMT on May 12, 2006.
TampaSteve, I don't think the Florida panhandle will be hit by a major hurricane or any hurricane possibly. The eastern trough will be in place all summer and will direct anything entering the gulf either into the southern Florida Peninsula or the western gulf

ARe you reffering to the Bermuda high? And you are saying that it will set up far enough E and S, that nothing will be able to turn N prior to the FLA panhandle? What are you basing this on.

The Bermuda high will determine where the majority of our storms go.

SJ

Michael, that was not a polar low. That was a normal extra-tropical warm seclusion low. It was just super strong, that's all. Extra-tropical cyclones can develop into warm core systems when they get really large and strong.

You Know The Feeling, franck. (Merchant Myself)
Selling the Salvage... It's like a Little Bell (ala It's a Wonderful Life) Chimes in Your Well Being. Not A Big CH-Ching, but a Little AHHHhh "That's Gone, Now To Move On..."

Weather Catastrophe Definitely Change One's Outlook on Life, Including How You Do Business.

FlCrackerGirl=FRAN

That snow was in North-central Wisconson along southern Lake Michigan.

SJ, yes the Bermuda high does have the primary influence, but it is at the mercy of where the trough over the lower 48 is. The trough is going to stay around the eastern seaboard all season long. I shouldn't have said everything entering the gulf will be directed away from the Florida panhandle, but almost all of them will either recurve and hit SW Florida, or move into the west gulf.

so Levi you think the central gulf coast will be spared this year from a landfalling hurricane?

SJ, you know that troughs are what cause a hurricane to recurve poleward. Hurricanes are strongly attracted to troughs and unless the Bermuda high builds in strong over Florida, (which is very unlikely) there will be nothing to steer a storm into the Florida Panhandle. The trough will direct more storms up the east coast this year. Once again I don't say all storms, but most of them. The fla panhandle may actually get a storm if there is a week when the Bermuda high builds in and the trough moves north for a time, but the dominant pattern this summer will keep a trough present along the east coast

GPTGUY, my last post for SJ answers your question. There might be a storm or two that sneaks into that area when the trough is farther north for a few days or something, but most storms will spare the central and eastern gulf coast this year.

Michael, a polar low would look exactly like a hurricane on a phase diagram. Polar lows are symetric warm core.

Not disputing anyone hear, just trying to learn. That being said I am aware that canes are attracted to troughs, but they also tend to follow the path of least resistance which would be the edge of the Bermuda high? no?

And what are we basing this info on?

And don't you know that you can not be right about more E coast storms because StormTop said they would all be central and W gulf storms. lmao.

SJ

I geuss my question is why will that be the dominant pattern?

Well Michael, that was an extratropical cyclone that became warm seclusion. Warm seclusion cyclones are much different from polar lows. Polar lows typically form in the middle of an extremely cold air mass, usually behind a cold front, or somewhere else where the air is extremely cold. They feed off of convection like hurricanes, but warm seclusion lows don't. Polar lows do not form from once normal extra-tropical systems, they form by themselves as a warm-core system and dissipate that way.

SJ, I don't know how to answer all of your questions. I said east coast and west gulf. Hurricanes do follow the path of least resistance. Hurricanes follow the perifery of the Bermuda High because they cannot just blast right through it. A trough is the absolute least difficult path for a hurricane to follow. Also hurricanes look for troughs their entire lifetime. A hurricane's mission is to bring energy from the tropics into the temperate latitudes. Without them, the energy balance between the tropics and the mid-latitudes would be all wrong.

As for why the pattern will be this way, it is just telliconnections and analogs and cycles and a whole bunch of stuff that would take me hours to explain. I don't know everything about it myself. This whole thing is just my opinion remember that I am not challenging you, STORMTOP, or anyone else.

An area of high pressure is denser then an area of low pressure. A hurricane cannot just bust through an area of denser air. When a trough with lower pressure moves near it, the storm take the most obvious path and phases with the trough. This also fullfills the hurricanes job of transporting heat to the higher latitudes.

Thanks Levi.

Not saying you were disputing anyone. Just thought I would throw a little humor out at StormTops expense.

SJ

yeah SJ we can all use some humor out at stormflops...er stormtops expense

Look at it like this. High pressure areas are like humps or ridges in a constant pressure surface, hence the phrase "ridge of high pressure". Lows are like valleys or bowls in the pressure surface, hence the word "trough". If you are walking along and you came upon a ridge, wouldn't you want to find a way to cross it besides climbing it straight up? So you would walk along it a little way to see if there is a valley to walk through to get to the other side. It is the same with hurricanes. They allways look for the easiest way to the upper latitudes.

Ok SJ lol. Poor STORMTOP I hope he does better this season.

Michael yes that is a polar low. The reason I can tell is because it both started as a warm core system, and ends as a warm core system.