Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Here is an audio pronunciation guide for WPAC storms. If you click on the name of the contributing country, it will show you what the meanings of each name contributed by that are.

Note: You will need RealPlayer in order to play the audio clips.

Link

also don't forget about the storms NC is about to get today

That should say:

it will show you what the meanings of each name contributed by that country are.

Yeah hunter, we have a SPS outlining the potential for severe weather here in the piedmont. We need the rain though.

Are we supposed to get severe storms here in wilmington nc this afternoon?

Possible K8... from your local NWS office...


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY...AND THEN RAPIDLY PUSH EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AND
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COMING INTO PLAY. A CLUSTER OR A LINE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST...WILL REACH
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
BY EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ALL PRECIPITATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

i told you guys not to start looking at the tropics real serious until may 23...i dont agree with dr masters la nina is still around and will be until august..i dont see this hurricane season being affected when la nina finally leaves...everyone knows the hurricane season picks up in august through october it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure that out...the temps remain hot in the southrern gulf and nw caribbean...im expecting alberto in may when the sheer stats to slacken off....

I think I will believe Dr. Masters.

i'am more with stormtop

just looking at the SSTs, im thinking a major hurricane in the big bend of florida, between tallahassee and tampa this year. hell, every year that tampa doesn't get one makes me think it'll be even worse when it finally does happen. but thats if something can make it into the gulf in the first place. i don't feel we'll have all that many pre-existing storms that get into the gulf (maybe 3?) but those that do will require very very close monitoring. here's the thing though: florida will never have its share. significantly moreso than any other location, we're always under the gun from any storm. think of what would've happened if Floyd didn't turn north and instead took Andrew's originally projected path through West Palm. that would've been the Katrina before Katrina around lake okechobee

when is new england going to get another hurricane though? i was there during gloria in 1985 (only 2 years old then!) and moved to florida a full year before Bob tore the place up in 1991. they've been very lucky in my opinion.

Personally, I'd say we're still in a weak La Nina. But given that this Nina should never have developed in the first place, STORMTOP, the SPC, Dr. Masters, and myself are all in uncharted waters.

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Jeff Masters

got a ? if a hurricane get in the gulf could it go right in to a cat 5 hurricane and do you think a hurricane will make land fall as cat 5 this year?

Jeff Masters


oh i fro got to ask you how march hoter is the gulf from this time last year

this is david how you like my new ID?

hmmm where my post go from be for i was only asking hmm a ? was it some in i said?

Posted By: TheLuckyTacoBlizzard at 11:39 AM PDT on May 11, 2006.
hmmm where my post go from be for i was only asking hmm a ? was it some in i said


for get that post i this did i see it now

that is exactly why if the Gulf doesnt see any storms till Aug/Sept there will be a ton heat energy stored in there(with depth) Hope then, that a huricane doesnt get in there...

Colby thank you for clarifying what "Chanchu" is. Interesting they would give a storm a name that is an "it".

yeah, look it how anomusily warm it is up toward the New England area. Is that why the media has been pushing the NE to be ready? It's the only indicator that I've seen for the warning.

Alec - that is a scary thought. Are there other ways that heat can disapate from the Gulf?
-NOLA

a ton OF* energy...sorry for my typos:(

Holy Moly!
We just got a huge wind gust here in the mountains out of nowhere! I guess a front has arrived. Look out Piedmont!

NOLA, the cooler air temps(which are forecasted the next 5 days for the Gulf coast) help to stop dramatic heating and may pull down the SST a little bit...Water is much more efficient at storing the sun's heat energy than land....that's why ocean temps dont drop as quickly as land temps do.....large waves also help upwell cooler water(if the warm layer is thin)

NOLA, it cools by evaporation, whether fueling a hurricane or not.

Syke, Accuweather predicted a major New England hurricane for the year, and for some arcane reason the media worships Accuweather.

And...can you say 'cape verde'?



That's some serious ITCZ!

My gosh Colby just wait till that all comes north!

you are perfectly correct Michael....for the short term it "modifies" and may actually decrease the SST temps but that may help in the long term create a deep heat content...

The MJO is in Phase 1 which corresponds to Africa and the Atlantic so that is probably why there is increased convection at the ITCZ.

What is ITCZ?

the temps would not support development yet off the coast of africa...looks very impressive for so early in the year...

ITCZ-intertropical convergence zone

hmmm now i got to no how to not put my word along with my words in my link

: MichaelSTL i seee look on the photo look like a lot of storms and look at my link and look at the shear down there where the storm are

Alec if you are still around - can you define the intertropic convergence zone for me? Those bubbles/blobs look like future hurricanes to me!

Last year storms seemed to explode in intensity in the waters of the southern Gulf. Can we expect more of the same this year with the elevated SST in the gulf?

Posted By: STORMTOP at 6:53 PM GMT on May 11, 2006.
the temps would not support development yet off the coast of africa...looks very impressive for so early in the year...

Acutally, the temps are plenty warm down there near Africa. Like Dr. Masters said, the whole Atlantic basin is warm enough to support development. The true reason these wont develope is that they are far too close to the equator at around 2-6N. The shear is even pretty low out there, and even though it has happened in other basins, I don't think a storm has ever developed that close to the equator in the Atlantic.

The ITCZ is where NE and SE trade winds converge which support thunderstorm growth ....thats the short and sweet version...here's the long explanation I found from this site below-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/az/alphabet75.shtml

"The ITCZ is the area where the northeast and southeast trade winds, centred on the equator, converge. This convergence forces the very moist tropical air to rise and produce huge cumulonimbus clouds, which can reach up to 60,000 feet, and give some tremendous thunderstorms and rainfall.

This wet zone moves north and south with the angle of the sun, taking the clouds and rain with it. So the Yoruba in Nigeria, have a wet and dry season. In fact, in southern Nigeria there can be two wet and two dry seasons as the ITCZ pushes northwards and then south again.

The wet season starts in March in the south and lasts until July, with another shorter rainy season during September and October. In the north the wet season is usually from June to September with the rest of the year dry, very hot and sunny. It is during the wet season that the large storm clusters move westward and out into the Atlantic on their journey to the Caribbean."

also the coreolis effect is nill near the equator...(C.E. helps the storms spin)

The ICTZ is an area of low shear, easterly winds, and convective activity that moves north and south roughly 15 degrees to either side of the equator.

NOLA, you're correct, many hurricanes do form from the ITCZ. Most of those originate in the eastern Atlantic (the ITCZ goes around the world), and track WNW across the Atlantic before recurving around the Bermuda High (usually, as the name suggests, centered east of Bermuda).

Correct, Alec, but the ITCZ doesn't stay at the Equator as noted above. Storms can form at the Equator with sufficient vorticity already present, but it is exceedingly rare.

It's not a hurricane. That's a mesocyclone, a low that forms when a warm and cold front start to rotate around each other. It is an absolutely stunning storm, though.

Its normal for the waves coming off of Africa to be too far south to support tropical development this time of year. This mimics last years hurricane season, there was a few impressive waves around 3-6N in May of 2005 but none formed into a tropical system.

The SST's are a concern, especially in the Gulf. It will be interesting to see what the SST's are in the peak of this years hurricane season. I can only assume it will be as high if not higher than last year. This is a scary thought now that we have seen how quickly a cat 1 hurricane can turn into a 890mb hurricane.

The record high temps in the US are obviously a sign that the SST's in areas that can support warm water (26+ celsius) are going to warm MUCH more than normal. This is going to be another worst case scenario if the shear levels die off surrounding the US, and the Bermuda High manages to push everything in the open atlantic due West.

2004 was a horrible hurricane season, and I will never forget it because I was hit dead on by numerous hurricanes. 2005 hurricane season was something that has never happened
recorded history. 2006 may eclipse both 2004 and 2005, so please be prepared. Think about, can you honestly say that the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were a coincidence along with all the other worldwide weather events that have been occuring. Not to mention all the warnings we have had from NASA, NOAA, The Pentagon, and numerous other government agencies and brilliant scientists from around the world.