Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

People Michael made a good point in my blog just now that this is reminding him of Katrina and New Orleans. The new forecast track has Chanchu as a borderline Cat 5 at landfall in Hong Kong. If the landfall is just to the left of the bay, we are looking at China's Katrina and that is no exaggeration. Please stop and pray for these people. This situation is much more grim for them than we realize being way over here in America.

Here is latest Microwave. Shows a complete eye wall has finally formed.

It would be very unusual to see a storm form that close to the coast of Africa. They usually need to wander off to the west a few days, even asa Cape Verde type storm.

This is our wave in the EPac.

LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW-UP BEGAN AROUND 00Z LAST NIGHT AND WAS
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY CREATED A NEARLY CIRCULAR 180 NM WIDE
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD BUT MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS
BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND
S OF THE CENTER. A 1252Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SINCE IT HAS NOT
YET DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE CIRCULAR AND COMPACT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT DIED OFF
LIKE IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

Damn...Hong Kong is about to get crushed!

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT sun may 14 2006
Tropical weather discussion


would any one like to tel me where the 805am one is note it say time 2:05am on there so where the new update one

Hong Kong will not be crushed Steve. This storm will be no higher than Category 3 at landfall because the heat potential up there is virtually zero. The outflow looks restricted and it will run into cold water near the coast. And, it still has not turned north yet, so it will cross the coast 50-75 miles west of Hong Kong, maybe more. It will not be a catastrophe.

yet, I will be surprised if less than 250 die

Chanchu actually looks a lot like Wilma. Extremely deep convection around a very tiny eye. And it is a very small storm, so it won't take much to weaken it.

gotta love people telling other people their wrong...so much fine...

the best part is when those people are proved wrong...

will see...

What's the Deal with these INSANE STORM!!!! -First 2 Cat. 5's in AUS
-Then Monica - and I need say no more about one of the most amazing cyclones the world has seen
-Then Mala
-NOW THIS!!!!!! Poss. Cat 5 for a Wold Power City!!!!

atmos, any more forecasts?? I know that you had wanted to stay away from wunderground earlier, but am wondering for those of us who live in South Fla anymore forecasts on the season coming up? As for preparations, for some odd reason south florida medics and such have been put on alert due to hurricane season coming up. Any input those here can give as to why would be helpful.

Well I wonder if La Nina had any effect on any of this that we have seen. Also as for the storms, remember that we are going to see worse and worse storms as the years go on because of the cycle we are in and the fact as some say global warming.

NRL now says 115kt/917mb, and I believe them. This is looking like an absolute disaster for Hong Kong. And it's still only May!

comment on this wave

Isn't it too early for Cape Verde development? I mean i guess anything is possible this year but...

yeah it is too early but it could make to the western caribbean

TampaSteve:

I'm living in Hong Kong right now. Thanks for the reassurance! ;)

Looks like I'm about to get pounded by a SUPER typhoon.

Chanchu sorta reminds me of the Perfect Disaster series. If I remember correctly, one of the episodes was about a cat-5 typhoon hitting Hong Kong (though I think the one on that show had winds of 200 mph).

sorry to the folks in China, water temps near the Hong Kong coast aren't too warm, so hopefully it wont make landfall as a cat5...this season has gone CRAZY in the Western Pacific!!!

Alec, it won't. It'll still be a very strong Category 4 typhoon (125 knots) when it lands here.

How deep is the warm water just off the coast of Hong Kong? Deep warm water will help super typhoons sustain themselves..

I think we need to calm down and forget Monica, Glenda and all the other strong cyclones we have seen lately. This is its own unique storm. We can't compare them. The fact is that the heat content near the coast (and up to 150 miles away) is almost zero. The water is a lot cooler and the outflow is going to be pretty restricted. A Category 5 storm (and thats if she makes it to Category 5) will not be able to sustain itself up there. I don't think a Category 4 will either. My guess would be 110 kts at landfall about 70 miles west of Hong Kong.

Alec - around 27 degrees.

The water is not very deep Alec

This is interesting. Chanchu is expected to make landfall near the mouth of the Pearl River (Zhujiang). The name Chanchu means pearl.

That Atlantic wave is too far south to develop. It probably won't survive to the Caribbean but if it does it may be organized enough to watch.

I agree Rich. Those waters wont be able to sustain such a powerful typhoon(especially if the heat content isnt all that great)...but if memory serves me correct, Monica didnt have the greatest heat content either but continued to be one of the top storms for the southern hemisphere...

Wow, that's some irony.

Yeah Alec that's true but the water near the Australian coast was warmer and deeper than the water around Hong Kong. I'm not particularly worried about a major catastrophe with Chanchu.

Eastern Pacific system now an invest.

New invest in the east pacific. Check it out.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Oh, by the way, I'm new here. Name's Mishka.

Well looking at our Gulf temps they are warmer than this same time last yr(they were in fact BELOW average last yr at this time)...and Dennis survived off of relatively cooler water last season in early July and after that the Gulf STILL managed to muster up enough potential energy to sustain Katrina, Rita, and Wilma! If the storms dont start impacting the Gulf till Aug/Sept(which some experts believe) there will be TREMENDOUS heat energy stored in there for those that venture in there!

ah, louastu beat me to it.

Here is a sattelite image of the system in the Eastern Pacific.

Hey Mishka, welcome to the Weather Underground!

welcome to wunderground Lemon!:)

Welcome Mishka. Nice to meet you.

welcome Mishka
This blog is very informative especially between June and November

FNMOC now estimates 130 kts and 910 mb

Eh, I've actually been reading around here for a pretty good time now. I just never really did get around to posting. Probably because I didn't realize that there WAS a free membership availible, so I didn't register at all.

Anywho, those warmer temperatures in the mid atlantic and new england region look kind of worrying. Does anyone think that some storms might be steered into that area this year?

I think there is a very good chance of at least 1 hurricane hitting the mid-Atlantic or northeast region. It all depends on where and how strong the Bermuda High is this season. In spite of that though, I think no area is out of the picture this season (just because of the possibility of another hyperactive landfalling season for the U.S). My 2 biggest threat areas would be south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast.

AWESOME!!! Perfect CDO once again. Extremely small eye which surely can't hold up for much longer.

Rich, would it be fair to say Apalachicola to the Big Bend has a decent shot this yr? If the Bermuda High is more East then that would mean many storms wont have the blocking high near FL and be more prone to curving northward once in the NW Caribbean and Gulf....

Yeah Alec, that's why I have Texas at a low risk. Also, not only might the Bermuda High be further east, but this year we have seen an active trof pattern in the southern United States, reinforcing my notion that Gulf Storms will end up SE LA and eastward. I think the west coast of FL and all of the panhandle is at pretty high risk this year.

Well Rich, if a tropical system hits the Gulf and heads toward the central panhandle to near us and its 90 degrees in the water...IM SCARED!!!

Yep I'm scared too living in central FL. If we have a really strong west coast storm with a trof approaching (very posssible this season) then it will hit me hard. Charley was bad enough.

Rich, what's your take on the Gulf SST's right now? Do you think they will fall slightly due to the cooler than normal nights recently? I think we may be on to our FINAL cold front soon...by the end of May they stop reaching us.

We can't completely rule out the possiblity of a Texas hit though. I mean, if this is an analogue year to 1999, we can't forget that in that year we had Bret hit the state as a strong Cat. 3. So I'm definitely not going to rule out the possiblity of something hitting Texas.

Yeah Alec they will fall next week because this front is incredibly strong for this late in the season. After that we enter the short period (10-15 days) where the Gulf loop current will heat up significantly and the entrie Gulf will warm rapidly. And, it just so happens that the Gulf will have fair and hot weather for those days!

Atmos, I geuss you might as well put the whole e coast in your risk area with that kind of pattern. I mean waht is the difference between an Appalachacola landfall and a Jacksonville landfall...not much.

Am I wrong here?

SJ