Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

gone? Does this mean that season will be closer to normal?

this is new thinking...everyone else has been talking about a really active season. Thank you for this new research.

He never said this season wouldn't active. He just said the conditions are not as favorable as those where a La Niña is present. Again, as Dr. Masters said, the La Niña conditions where the exact same during the record breaking season last year.

Dr. Masters thank you so much for pointing out SST trends. This has been a big topic of discussion on the blogs for awhile. Thank you for finally sheding some light on the subject.

I am learning so much from your blogs this year. Thanks Dr. Masters!

Seems like there are two issues: Number of storms and intensity of storms...and while the two are related they are determined by different factors. So really, when we all think about th upcoming season, the questions are, "How many?" and "How intense?" Factors such as temperature probably have more to do with intensity and factors like initial African disturbances has more to do with how many...in a year like 2005 all the factors seemed to be against us...maybe this year it will be one or the other, but not both. At least we can hope.

Dr Masters, thanks for the update and information. I was starting to dance a little jig but then read the rest! Oh well; at leas we are informed.

Appreciate your information! Looking forward to the next blog entry.


Gamma

Can I ask a dumb question? is the name "Chanchu" (referring to Typhoon Chanchu) a "he" or a "she".

I don't know Chinese lol.

From what I read for this and eariler posts (correct me if I am wrong Dr. Masters). Is we will have a later start but during the peak of the season will be some real monsters and the spooky part is the above average chance for rapid intenseification cycles near landfall. Specially in the gulf.

Levi,
There are no dumb questions, just the occasional dumb post ;)
I'm curious too.
-NOLA

Dr. Masters

Do you think dust from the Sahara will play a factor this year?

Here is my dumb question: why is the water in the gulf so warm right now? It seems with all the hurricanes passing over the gulf last year that the water temps would have had some catching up to do.

thats a good point NOLA! I think it has to do with the above avg. temps in the spring on the gulf coast.

The April update of Dr. Gray's hurricane outlook suggests something similar in that the "best analog years for 2006" are 1964, 1996, 1999 and 2003. You may notice that more storms turned northward theatening the US East Coast more than the Gulf Coast.

Track Charts from “wunderground.com”
1964

1996

1999

2003

that would be real bad news for North Carolina!!

oh boy not going to be a nic hurricane year this year is it could this year pass last year of 28 storms with may be 29 or 30 storms


DR M or any one ???

is it me or is the gulf hoter then it was last year at this time?

Na Taco i dont think so im thinking more like 16 named storms 9 hurricanes 5 major

Here in A'vill, we had our worst flooding in 100 years (2 years ago) from TS's tracking up from the Gulf and along the Appalachian ridge. A direct hit is not necessary - Mother Nature can find another way to wreak havoc!

hmmm twc said 17 storms this year

that would be real bad news for North Carolina!!

Talkin about the Carolinas...they are long overdue....I see a cat 4 hittin them this year...eh StormTop?

I was curious to see if this year will be a another record breaking year but with news like this it may not happen....but again all smart asses at the NHC couldnt predict '06 so we will see...

your right NOLA the #1 killer in tropical cyclones is freshwater flooding but if 2006 is similar in years posted above that would be bad news for coastal NC espcially if its similar to 1996 Bertha in July and Fran in September

all we cn do is this wait and see

yes but u also have to think about the mountains of NC because in 2004 They got it really bad I live in NCs Mountains so I know what it was like

yep taco but we dont need another one down here on the Mississippi Coast!!

and rememeber Isabel in 2003?

yep forgot about Isabel

Hmm, I'm glad to see that La Nina is indeed fizzling out... it seems to bring increased drought and more intense Atlantic hurricanes. I would say La Nina leads to more negative effects than El Nino in the US... since increased rainfall in California is usually a beneifit in the long run.

Looking at the eastern Pacific, it looks like the formative areas south of Baja are quite warm but the areas west of Baja are unusually cold. Will this 'zap' hurricanes rounding Baja faster than it normally does? We will see i guess.

We even had some flooding in the piedmont of NC from all those tropical storms if I remember right. I do remember the mountains getting hammered. We (NC) deal a lot with the tornado formations from these dying cyclones as well.

I wonder how coastal population density in NC compares to the Gulf Coast?

yes we do

good question NOLA

i got my out look for this year on my blog and this to tell you i was off by 2 storms last year i was for casting 30 storm and i was off by only 2

Nc ranks 3th of growing Coastal Population density so theres ur ansner

is the gulf hoter this year then it was last year


and if any things get in the gulf then BOOOM you got a cat 4 or 5 hurricane

well i know the MS coast WAS growing with the casinos and the boom of condos

Thank you for all of the helpful information Dr. Masters.

yeah taco gulf is hotter than this time last year

look like the ca waters arenot that hot like they where last year

Hey NOLA, here is your answer...

National Overview (PDF Document)

Came from this site.

Hope that answers your question.

if the gulf is hoter then last year then look out if a hurricane gets in there then it can get to a cat 5 hurricane vary vary fast

Thanks w-hunter. I guess that is part of the problem, the population growth on the coast. And transportation inlets (and outlets) aren't big enough for massive evacuation.
I am praying for all hurricanes to avoid land this year. That would be a record worth celebrating.

Terrific resource WSI - thanks!

In 2004, it was Florida...in 2005, it was the Northern Gulf...the Carolinas and Virginia are due this year, IMHO.

I remember Fran in 1996...people in the Shenandoah Valley thought they were too far inland to worry about tropical systems...they were wrong...the flooding in Western Virginia was horrendous. Whole towns were cut off by the raging flood waters. I remember visiting a friend in Page County after the storm. The water had picked up an entire house and carried it about half a mile...it came to rest in the endzone of the local high school's football field. That was a truly amazing thing to see.

I also remember Isabel in 2003...it was my last year in Virgina...it wasn't so bad around the DC area, just a blustery, rainy night...but on the coast, they got hammered...another friend of mine lost six feet of shoreline and his entire boat dock to Isabel.

As long as those big hurricanes stay far away from Tampa, I'll be happy!

I think this year we'll(NC) get a Cat. 3 hurricane near the Borerter of NC and SC

Chanchu is an "it". It's chinese for pearl (the gemstone, not the name).

I see we all seem to be counting the Gulf out a bit early. *seems to remember certain storms going BOOM in the gulf recently*

Here is an audio pronunciation guide for WPAC storms. If you click on the name of the contributing country, it will show you what the meanings of each name contributed by that are.

Note: You will need RealPlayer in order to play the audio clips.

Link