Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Oops forgot the link

and ts as well

I think the root of this political issue is this:

Oil companies sell oil, if they sell less oil they make more money. Therefore, it is in the interest of the oil companies to support research that denies global warming as a factor. Of course to some extent this is fair, if an unfair accusation is being made about oil's effects we should find out. However, it seems that there are a lot more people who profit from the con argument (oil companies and politicians) than the pro warming argument (only politicians, maybe?). I never really understood who is profiting from the 'pinko liberal' greenhouse warming argument... who makes money off of the belief that we are warming the climate? biodiesel manufacturers? Maybe since i am a liberal i can't see the liberal bias, but i don't believe it exists.

anyway, sorry to get political...

i'm waiting on a big (non tropical) low to pass over us on Friday.. it may be the last spring storm of the year for so-cal so i'll enjoy it while i can

oops, that above should read 'if they sell less oil they make less money'

I tell ya what, the soon to be CUL is trying, I think I can, I think I can. Please return all drool tables to thier full upright and locked positions until June, shear levels and the large drape approacing aught to knock it out.

Biggest weather event is going to be the drop in winds in sfl

<--- Doing a rain dance, kind of futile at this point.

The fact that there are projections of such amazing climate change in this CENTURY is reason enough to start making changes to start lowering C02 emissions now. Its not like we all have to live in caves. The changes are needed anyways in the comming years as oil production has basically peaked and the years of cheap oil are over.

One could only hope this thing tries to develope a little more. Maybe it can get some decent convection going and give us some desperatly needed rain here SWFL.

<---- Begins doing rain dance with Progressive.

$2.86 a gallon here, ouch.

I just posted a new blog, come over for some fun!

but you do not want the rain all at one time you get flooding but a little rain in FL will be nic

Levi, what models are you looking at? Only one I see that even recognizes its existance is the GFS, which keeps it stalled until it dies.

Rain is one thing, I am glad they figured out how to solve the stinch in the water. I was getting worried about that, rather unpleasent in the shower.

my gas is up to 2.93$

David, SFL is equiped to handle large amounts of rain at a time, Bring it on>

Colby, the NOGAPS has a low in the Caribbean which is this low but it moves it south.

A lot of water will not be a problem here in SWFL. The creeks around my house are about 5-6 below normal level and everywhere else seems to be about the same.

ProgressivePulse ok how about 2ft of rain come on to my blog for some fun tonight and ever one on her can come in too

Look at the WV loop. It has some "outflow" to its north.Link

Hey guys look at this. Normaly the cuba radars update only once an hour. I just found a radar that updates every 15 minutes! The disturbance is coming into the radar view take a look! Link

That would be all the shear about to knock it out

Easy Levi. All thunderstorms have outflow. Right now it doesn't even have a closed off surface low. It doesn't look too promising, imo.

I give it 5%.

I'm fine Myles, just noting. It didn't start outflow on satellite until the end of the loop so it is becoming more pronounced. Besides, I just stated early this morning that this wouldn't develop.

That should be noticing not noting.

dont worry about this disturbance, its really nothing

i give it 20% to 50% ch of be comeing some in but if only the shear move out of the way a little bit if not i give it 10% to 15% ch of be comeing some in

i just looked at all anlysises. it appears it may form a surface low but, it will only do this when the cold front hits it and thus, it would be barciclonic. its more of a nontropical gale center forming and it has absolutely no chancem of hitting the u.s.

Link


sea temps update

My internet acsess has been come & go from the cool wind blowing off that thing. This Naval Java shear model has been insistant of something forming around the Bahamas, headed for south FL for days now...unwavering. We started getting some very scattered cold showers from the east off it this morning. For the last 2 1/2 days, at times, low level tropical looking clouds blow in at a quick clip but on a cold wind. I hope someone gets some rain, but don't expect it to be warm...

I like NOAA's new Nowcast for SST, currents, salinity, sea surface height & etc. ~ Here's the 72 hr forecast for SST in 3-D... Link

Your looking at the whole atlantic...

You can select on the top ~gulf, west atlantic zoom, etc. For the N Carribian, gulf & W Atlantic (that's the west Atlantic zoom) Max current SST temp~ 30.15ºC

See the Nogaps #78 forecast to develop storm? How longs that been there? I've been denied by the wind to keep up.

<--- See's the defensive line from the early 90's Bears progressing through FLA

Does that unnamed subtropical storm (& subtropical storms in general) count toward the yearly ACE total?

But I will say, that I see something in the southern area of a certain low pressure system that nobody is watching, of course, that really resembles a certain something TRYING to get a name for itself.

Nothing really Micheal, just looks like the area by the Bahama's trying to grab a feed from the south west. I was being sarcastic on the "system that nobody is looking at" cause everone is. It is trying it's hardest to get going for sure.

Not happening though, just crazy to look at this time of year.

Life @ 21N 71W is looking kinda sparky

25N 71W that is

Progressive, there has been a storm before in April. I'd say this has a chance, if not a good one.

What's looking sparky there progressive?

I hold strong reserves but man if there were just a little less shear, we would have Alberto. Visible rotation is showing well, man you see lines from the SW you have to wonder. Shear will get it though.

approx 25n 71w colby.

A little below 25, visible.

Follow the line around the hook!

the 25n 71w was the one i was refuring to as the NOGAPS #78 & here's the NOGAPS 850 vort loop

How many runs has #78 been forecasted?