Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hey Michael,

Great work and information supplied by you as usual.:)

I agree totally with the central premise of your comments and the rationale for the new "enhanced" Fujita tornado scale.

The only reservation I have about it is that a very rare, but still possible tornado like the May 1999 Oklahoma city F5 that had recorded 301 mph as mentioned already in DR.. Masters blog a couple of days ago, and has even been listed as having slighly higher wind speeds in some "official" reports, would be a full 100 mph plus greater than the top end wind speed criteria for the new "EF" scale.

In other words, those who are claiming we need an additional category to account for more intense hurricanes like Wilma for example with 185 mph sustained winds, can make a far greater argument for the necessity for a new F6 classificaton for those like the historical 1999 Tornado.

I have to go, but I hope each of you have a great night.:)

Thanks,
Tony

: MichaelSTL mail for you e mail me

Hey Michael,

On the other hand, all things being considered, I still feel that there is neither a need for a new category for the SSHS for hurricanes nor the EF Tornado scale.

In the case of the latter, I think that an F5 classification should be assigned a greater wind criteria than simply over "200 mph" when one considers we have had measured 301 mph winds from the May 1999 Oklahomas City Tornado.

In short, I would personally like to have seen a slightly wider range of wind criteria for each category than the new EF scale, but understand the need to make the revisions itself for obvious reasons as you already noted.:)

I hope you and everyone else has a wonderful night.:)

Thanks,
Tony

Posted By: louastu at 4:40 PM EST on April 04, 2006.
Also, Emily did not take the same kind of path that Ivan and Dennis took, as it did not make the turn to the North.

It did up to the Caymans, so for about 2/3rds of its path.

i have updated my blog

Dennis and Emily were not true Cape Verdes, but they shared many charictaristics.

On a side note, it appears that La Nina is having little or no influence on west coast weather anymore. Despite its persistence, California has been flat out pounded by a series of unusually cold, wet storms. Usually april marks the end of the rainy season but all of the long range forecasts predict a continuation of this pattern for at least the next 10 days. To give an idea of how dramatic this is, some areas had around 50% of their average (july 1-june 30) rainfall going into March and it looks like the LA area may actually reach 'average' rainfall despite the bone-dry winter. Further north, conditions are even more dramatic with record breaking rains and high snow levels causing flooding.

Does anyone have theories as to why this weather pattern is occurring? It's no El Nino obviously, and i havent heard anything about strong MJO effects either, although i havent checked the most recent bulletin. In any event, this year in so-cal will be known as the year with two wet seasons (October was also quite wet) and a dry season in between them.

To Danm
I am not sure what Dr. Gray's opinion is regarding global warming, however, I think the truth lies somewhere in between since this is a very complex issue.

See my post on this

The Floridian and Bahamian systems are both just flare-ups of convection along a cold front. Almost certainly nothing.

There's nothing of interest in the Caribbean either...what are you talking about?

TO: hometownhero36547

No. The risk this year for your area (Area 3) that somewhere within that region will experience hurricane force or higher winds is about 13.5%.

United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project







http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

No, I don't see a thing potentially tropical.
There is not the least bit of counterclockwise water vapor flow. If some large convection area were to develop, it would be taken east in a hurry as well.

Yea, I have to say I see nothing that looks even remotly possible for tropical development.

The stuff down by S. America...are you just referring to the big rain storms that the get everyday?

One Season at a time folks! Lets get through tornado season first then deal with the canes. Unfortunately, I feel they will both be memorable and in a bad way I'm afraid. And what's worse is that they kinda overlap. Not much time to catch your breath inbetween!
I pray everybody comes through it all ok. As much as it all is intensly facinating, I hate the distructive aspects as far as life and property. But by the same token, with all the interest and intence scrutiny & daily scientific advances, maybe many more lives can be saved through a little more awareness. Ultimately, it's up to the individual as to how he/she reacts to the warnings. Guess the best way to some it all up is to say "Heads Up Everybody!" Stay Aware & Prepare" May you all fare well this year.

Max

Day 2, SPC. Fabulous.

" PARTS OF BOTH NEB/IA AND THE ERN KS/OK AND WRN MO/AR AREAS MAY BE
UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
NEXT DAY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS WEATHER IN THESE AREAS.
"

For anyone who was paying attention to the GFS...it's no longer projecting a shallow wame core system in the Gulf like it had been for a few days now. We'll see if it shows back up, but it was a long shot from the start.

I think what the "public" needs to understand is that the probability of hurrican landfall (or other weather events) mean very little for a specific community or speck on the map...we are always preparing for the "last storm" which may or may not occur for years...they don't call these things "100 year storms" or "50 year storms" for nothing. Everyone gets excited when Dr. Gray and others make their pronouncements but, while the coast line is a probable target, specific communities cannot guage their vulnerability by those predictions. Here in Fort Lauderdale we are preparing for another Wilma--and of course that's a good thing...but the next Wilma could come in 2006 or in 2050 and there is just no way of knowing which it will be. There is little distance between "preparation" and "panic"...kind of similar to the attacks on 9/11...we spend a lot of time getting ready for the next 9/11 when the truth is that whatever is being planned by the bad guys may be very different than the attacks on that day. Learning from previous mistakes is great, but there is a danger in getting to focused what happened in New Orleans or Fort Lauderdale...next time it might be Richmond or Brunswick...

Link

Looks like something off Florida coast its 180hrs out but you never know looks like th makings of a tropical storm

Just noticed the same thing StormSurfer on the 06Z GFS and the 00Z MRF...I want to see some more consistent runs before I buy into this solution...way too early to say if this has tropical potential, however...

cyclonebuster - I'm having to agree with ForecasterColby, globalize and HurricaneMyles - all I'm seeing in that loop is typical rain storms and storms riding a front. Even though a person can't say "way too cold" definitively anymore (thanks to the Greek storms of 2005), they're also showing no signs of significant development OR rotation.

As the old people who sit around on their porches watching tornados like to say, "I've seen worse." (LOL And yes, we really do stand around on our porches watching funnel clouds develop around here - that's how everyone knows it's actually a tornado and not just the NWS blowing smoke. XD )

StormSurfer - That does look interesting, but like Randyman I'm going to run a few more models and watch for changes in the pattern before I get excited. 180hrs is a long way out.

another moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow
Day 2 outlook

Hubert...nice name :)

I can see this doing the same madness we've seen previously in the S Hemisphere this year, it looks excellent.

The last 2 times we have been placed in a slight risk, we have ended up having a lot of severe weather in Indiana (though nothing in Plainfield). Last Friday there was an F-2 tornado that carved a path 17 miles long in Shelby County, destroying several homes, and damaging over a hundred others. On Sunday we had widespread wind damage, including "extensive damage" to the Regions Bank Tower in Downtown Indianapolis, caused by wind gusts in excess of 80 mph!!!

I personally believe that, despite being in only a "slight risk" area, we will see widespread severe weather in Central Indiana once again.

Yeah ~ if ya don't have a weather radio now is a good time to buy one... I can't believe the features these days. This one can hand crank for charging it's batterys, NOAA, VHF(audio) AM, FM, 2 lights, cell phone charger, a siren & a red flasher.

I don't see anything really developing in the 144hr range. 180hrs out is too far to even look at the models for something tropical right now.

NOAA put out an article on the Acidification of the oceans. Hightlights~

"The pH decrease is direct evidence of ocean acidification in the Pacific Ocean," said Feely. "These dramatic changes can be attributed, in most part, to anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean over the past 15 years. This verifies earlier model projections that the oceans are becoming more acidic because of the uptake of carbon dioxide released as a result of fossil fuel burning."

"The effects of decreased calcification in microscopic algae and animals could impact marine food webs and, combined with other climatic changes in salinity, temperature and upwelled nutrients, could substantially alter the biodiversity and productivity of the ocean," Fabry said. "As humans continue along the path of unintended CO2 sequestration in the surface oceans, the impacts on marine ecosystems will be direct and profound."

Good afternoon Dr Masters and fellow weather geeks!!! Finally got caught up again and doesn't look good for anyone!

tornadoes all around my family in the Mid-south and we are probably going to be clobbered again this year with hurricanes!

but knowledge is better than ignorance any day!!!

you all have a good one and will take a peek back later.

Latest SST anomaly plot:



Only the Gulf Stream area looks much warmer than normal to me. You can really see La Niña, though.

Try again:

Oh, well...just click here. The system si blocking that one here.

Hi MichaelSTL and all!

Cyclone Hubert building off Australia, I've started a blog for this here, would appreciate your comments and expertise, as this is all rather new to me... Thanks :)

I don't remember seeing this research at time of publishing~ Link

Cool rain may cause tornadoes
HUNTSVILLE, Ala., April 4 (UPI) -- A University of Alabama-Huntsville study suggests cooling rain preceding some hurricanes' landfall may produce conditions favorable for tornadoes.

Researchers said the cooling rain might cause the hurricanes to rapidly weaken as they move inland, but that same cooling rain might also cause shallow warm and cold "fronts" within a hurricane system. And that would make it more likely for tornadoes to develop as the storm weakens.

"It's almost a case of pick your poison," said Kevin Knupp, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the severe weather research team at the university's Earth System Science Center. Knupp's team of scientists and students has recorded seven hurricanes and tropical storms since 1998.

The results of the research appeared in the January edition of the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

Skye,
good info.
thanks

Hurricanes suck. Period. Hard to say exactly what will transpire however I would like to think that reconstruction of homes and businesses will be better than in years past.
I still see crappy home construction on the treasure coast. one would think that after 2004-2005 people would wise up and spend the extra money to have a stronger home.