Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

National Weather Service forecasts to be banned?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT del 26 Aprile 2005 +0
It may soon be illegal for the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue non-severe weather forecasts under the provisions of the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005, Senate Bill S.786, introduced April 14 by Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. The bill's key provision (Section 2b) states that the National Weather Service cannot provide "a product or service...that is or could be provided by the private sector", with the exception of severe weather forecasts and warnings needed to protect life and property. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez is given sole authority on how to interpret what NWS products and services should be restricted. In his comments upon introduction of the bill, Senator Santorum said the bill would boost the private weather industry by reducing unfair competition from the NWS and generate cost savings to the government, remarking, "The beauty of a highly competent private sector is that services that are not inherently involved in public safety and security can be carried out with little or no expenditure of taxpayer dollars."

Why The Weather Underground opposes the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005
It is unclear from the bill's language whether the NWS would be allowed to continue making its routine public and marine forecasts. This decision would be made by the Secretary of Commerce. I believe the expertise of the NWS forecasters is unmatched anywhere in the world, and throwing away their forecasts would be a shameful waste. Although the private weather industry can and does provide routine public and marine forecasts, the quality of these forecasts is sometimes poor and would likely worsen if the NWS ceased issuing forecasts. When I participated in forecasting contests both as a student and an instructor, I discovered that while it was difficult--but not impossible--to beat the NWS forecast, it was nearly impossible to beat the "consensus" forecast--that is, the average of everyone's forecast. Private weather industry forecasters do their own forecasting, but will usually check their forecast against what the NWS says before sending it out. If the NWS forecast differs considerably, there will frequently be an adjustment made towards the NWS forecast, resulting in a better "consensus" forecast. So, with the proposed legislation, not only would we lose the best forecasts available, but the forecasts from the private weather companies would also worsen. Many sectors of our economy depend upon good forecasts, and passage of the bill might result in a loss of millions of dollars to the economy. Elimination of routine NWS forecasts would result in little cost savings to the government. The 24-hour staffing at NWS offices required to make severe weather forecasts would not change significantly, and these forecasters would need to be working all the time making forecasts in order to fulfill their duty to make severe weather forecasts. If the NWS has to keep their forecasting staff in place, why not continue to let them make their excellent forecasts? Ed Johnson, the weather service's director of strategic planning and policy remarked, "If someone claims that our core mission is just warning the public of hazardous conditions, that's really impossible unless we forecast the weather all the time. You don't just plug in your clock when you want to know what time it is."

Not all private industry would benefit
The Weather Underground, Inc. relies heavily on NWS forecasts and products that would likely be eliminated. Without these products, our company would likely be forced to significantly downsize. Other private weather companies are in the same situation, and smaller TV and radio stations that rely on free NWS forecasts would also suffer. And K-12 schools that rely on the ad-free weather.gov web site would be forced to eliminate some weather education offerings.The bill primarily benefits those private weather companies with large staffs of forecasters that can make forecasts for the entire country, such as AccuWeather and the Weather Channel. Legislation like this has been pushed for many years by the Commercial Weather Services Association, led by AccuWeather, a company based in Pennsylvania. CWSA and AccuWeather managed to get almost identical bill introduced in the House in 1999.

Too much power is given to the Secretary of Commerce
The decisions on which NWS services and products unfairly compete with private industry are given to one person, the Secretary of Commerce. Leaving one politically-appointed person in charge of this decision-making is unwise. A more fair solution would be to form a committee to make the decisions.

How to oppose The National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005
The National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005 is currently before the Senate Commerce Committee, and will have to make it out of there before the full Senate votes on it. The time to kill this bill is now! If you're interested, you can sign a petition opposing the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005, or write your Senator if he or she is on the Senate Commerce Committee: http://commerce.senate.gov/about/membership.html
Categories: Politics
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201. nwseo1 4:46 PM GMT on May 01, 2005    
Also I want to thank the people on this blog for their support. It really motivates me to do a gread job at work when I see this kind of enthusiasm for the NWS and encouragement from our customers.

Thanks
Jack

202. vortex1 7:15 PM GMT on May 02, 2005    
Joseph: Many of our snow plow clients get paid by the inch of snow. But there aren't enough snow accumulation reports to cover all locations, so what we did was develop an accumulation map using contours to estimate how much snow has fallen in one place. So what did the NWS do, they put out a similar map on their website. So it's kind of like stick to forecasting and not offer the other products that private companies can do. If they want to offer forecasts I have no problem with that, it is a challenge to me to put out a better forecast and beat them. But when they start offering other products that goes beyond forecasting and collecting and disseminating observations, that's where I have a problem. I am not talking about competing against a product that is less expensive, I am talking about competing against one that is free. Somebody is getting taxpayer money to put out that product when that money can be used for research or perhaps developing an ASOS station that doesn't report .01 in an hour when there isn't any rain for hundreds of miles. I think you get my point. It is also hard for me to believe that people are for the NWS as much as they are against Accu-Weather. And rightfully so, their ethics have always been questionable in this field.
203. Ocala 8:35 PM GMT on May 02, 2005    
Vortex1, I can certainly understand your position in reguard to The NWS issuing these products for free. But the fact remains that long before Accuweather, WSI, Weather.com etc were in bussiness, The NWS was already there. These companies knew going in that they were in competition with a tax payer funded service that distributed these products for free. The only thing they had going for them was that they held the contract to distribute the Nexrad radar data. Now that this contract has expired and this data is available for free, they are feeling the pinch. The Nexrad radar data was a gold mine for these companies because they could chage for it. Now the only thing they can provide are forecasts, which the NWS allready does. Back to my original point. They knew going in what the stakes were. Just my 2 cents.
Member Since: Maggio 7, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
204. Ocala 8:35 PM GMT on May 02, 2005    
Vortex1, I can certainly understand your position in reguard to The NWS issuing these products for free. But the fact remains that long before Accuweather, WSI, Weather.com etc were in bussiness, The NWS was already there. These companies knew going in that they were in competition with a tax payer funded service that distributed these products for free. The only thing they had going for them was that they held the contract to distribute the Nexrad radar data. Now that this contract has expired and this data is available for free, they are feeling the pinch. The Nexrad radar data was a gold mine for these companies because they could chage for it. Now the only thing they can provide are forecasts, which the NWS allready does. Back to my original point. They knew going in what the stakes were. Just my 2 cents.
Member Since: Maggio 7, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
205. vortex1 12:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2005    
Well again, I have nothing against the NWS putting out weather forecasts. I welcome the challenge. I am talking about other products they have been doing, such as graphics, etc. Things that began with private companies, such as the item listed in my previous post.
206. JohnSheppard 9:07 AM EDT on May 04, 2005    
I am still perplexed about why a private company should want to restrice the NWS so that they in turn can generate income.
I've already paid for that information; a private company would need to present it in a much better format for me to want to pay for it.
That all seems totally appropriate. To restrict the NWS so that some private enterprise would be able to charge for that information is not just asking me to pay twice; it's like asking me to pay a toll to use a public road just to inhance the income of the toll booth maker.
How silly!!!
207. grampi 6:20 PM GMT on May 04, 2005    
I have several points to make in regard to Senator Santorum's proposed bill to limit the services of the NWS. First off, his argument that privatizing many of the services which are currently provided by the NWS will save the tax payers money is complete hogwash. Having been a government employee for over 20 years now, I've had a lot of first hand experience with privatization. This is how it works. When the government decides to contract out a service, they always award the contract to the lowest bidder. Knowing this, contractors purposely lowball their bid to ensure they get the contract. Once the service is underway, the contractor begins a series of budget increases and deadline extentions throughout the course of the contract. When all is said and done, the service/project could've been accomplished in a more timely manner, the job would've been done better, and at a lower cost to tax payers if it would've been accomplished by federal employees, even when taking into consideration the wages and benefits of the those federal employees. There is also no accountability when these services are contracted out.

The next issue I have with this proposed bill is the Senator's claim that the NWS should not be allowed duplicate services that can be provided by the private sector. Whose duplicating who? The NWS was around long before any of these private companies came along, so it seems to me they are duplicating services the NWS has been doing for years. And since when should government agencies that have been providing the tax payers with valuable and accurate services for decades have to downsize in order to allow private companies to flurish?

The third problem I have with this bill is anytime a profit driven organization is in charge of providing the general public information that could mean the difference between life and death, people are going to die. The first sign that it isn't profitable to provide a certain type of service, or to provide service in any given area, the company will reduce or eliminate the service. That's just the nature of a profit driven business and this is why privatizing the weather service won't work.

There's nothing wrong with the system the way it is now. Why fix what ain't broke? My guess is the Senator already knows this, but his bank account is probably being padded by these private weather service companies. Hopefully, the people this bill is being presented to are smart enough to realize just how idiotic it is and they throw it out the door along with the Senator!
208. vortex1 11:40 PM GMT on May 04, 2005    
Grampi problem number 1: I don't know who does that, but we never have. Infact on the contrary, on our government bids, the government is so slow in awarding the bid, by the time they do we are scrambling like crazy to be able to start on time.
Grampi problem number 2:The NWS is dupicating services. Read my earlier post. We developed a graphical snowfall map and then the NWS duplicated it. Remember, I was not talking about forecasting. That's not the problem.
Grampi problem number 3: The NWS will still be in charge of life or property threatening weather. They will still be issuing warnings, watches, etc. I suggest you read the bill.
209. LarryCosgrove 12:20 AM GMT on May 05, 2005    
Friends

While I am heartened to see people aware of the political process, and how it relates to weather observation and reporting, I have some friendly advice:

Chill out! This hysteria will NOT help the situation.

The legislation sent to the Senate floor by Mr. Santorum will NOT destroy the NWS, but PERHAPS could limit some of its important duties. The NOAA web pages and possibly some other functions led by local WSFOs and specialized branches may be impacted.

There are two major issues with this bill that need to be addressed. One is the obtuse wording; just what is the Senator trying to say? The second is, there are OTHER PRIVATE WEATHER SERVICES besides Accu-Weather, and they need some legal help to sustain themselves. I firmly believe that we need to see more non-NOAA participation in fields such as severe weather and hurricane/tropical forecasting, but the current structure of data flow limits the non-NWS meteorologist in those pursuits.

The bill needs to be rewritten, plain and simple. But do not be fooled by comments saying that NWS or NOAA agencies are far better than their privately run counterparts. There is no proof of such a statement, and someday firms may be able to prove their skills in some of the toughest corners of weather prediction. IF they get the chance.

Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
210. grampi 2:17 AM GMT on May 05, 2005    
Vortex1

I saw the lowballing personally all the time. Most government contractors are ripoff artists.

If the NWS is duplicating a service that was developed by the private sector, then the bill should only forbid the NWS to duplicate only that service. It shouldn't have all functions except for severe weather services stripped away.

Once again, federal agencies should not be subjected to downsizing and the possibility of thousands of their employees losing their jobs simply to create a greater chance of success for private firms. It's not the inharent duty of civil servants to give up their jobs to create private jobs.
211. grampi 6:47 PM GMT on May 05, 2005    
I'm starting a new company aimed at taking over the functions of the senators and congressmen. Their only functions will be to make national security decisions during wartime. Anyone interested in joining my company?
212. jodec 1:08 AM GMT on May 13, 2005    
I think it is a stupid idea to not allow the NWS to continue its great job for weather forecasts and all other products. I am only a weather hobbiest, but frequently access the NWS website for updates. We do have the weather channel here, but I also like to zero into my local Forecast Zone (CTZ008) -- Northern New London County in Connecticut.

I have on 2 occasions submitted storm reports to the NWS Forecast Office in Upton NY. I use this Site to determine whether to cancel events or keep them scheduled when snow storms are on the way.

Interestingly, I have actually had the experience of watching local weather stations (Hartford and New Haven) sometimes forecast certain conditions, yet when I check with the NWS website for my zone, find a different forecast. This has not happened too much, but it has happened. In addition, the NWS updates if local zone forecasts several times per day but I may only watch TV stations' weather at 5pm or perhaps 11pm.. and they tend to focus on Hartford or New Haven and not always mention my town. I can get this detailed forcast for my town by entering the zip code at the NWS Website.

Can you imagine the chaos that can occur is suddenly a Corporate Forecast calls for snow accumulating between 1 and 3 inches, then all of a sudden the storm intensifies into a blizzard ?? Nice.. real nice.

Seems like Lawsuits for Weather Forecasting Malpractice ??? may run rampant in the future. After all, private companies -- no... better yet.. Monopolies have lots of $$$$.... Remember Microsoft?

I say let the NWS continue to do the fantastic job that they have been doing right along, and continue to improve as they have been.

Good luck NWS... You certainly have my support.

Joe D.
213. jimpike 5:28 PM GMT on May 16, 2005    
I am a small, independant residential construction contractor. I pour concrete sidewalks, driveways and patios.

This bill could hurt my business if I could not get accurate weather forecasts, or if I had to pay for the information.

I use WeatherUnderground to view radar and to get temperature and humidity forecasts.

I can modify my concrete mix to fit the weather conditions and give my customers a better quality product which will last longer.

I am not a meteorologist, but weather is very important to me.
214. vortex1 3:48 PM GMT on May 17, 2005    
Jim- Does the government give you cement for free or do you have to go out and buy it? Same thing with weather, they shouldn't be giving that away either. On another note, let's suppose the government poured concrete sidewalks, driveways and patios. Now you wouldn't be in business very long would you. Even if you did it better, it wouldn't be so easy getting people to pay for something they can get for free even if its someone lesser quality, would it?
215. cavaguy20 7:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2005    
I, as well think that this bill is the craziest thing I have ever heard! When I was younger, I used to soley rely on TWC, however, when I discovered the NWS, it has been them I trust ever since! They take their forecast down to the heart of every city, and that makes a big difference over other weather companies! I highly doubt this bill will get put into law... I really do.

Mike
Owner
216. cavaguy20 7:48 PM GMT on May 19, 2005    
I, as well think that this bill is the craziest thing I have ever heard! When I was younger, I used to soley rely on TWC, however, when I discovered the NWS, it has been them I trust ever since! They take their forecast down to the heart of every city, and that makes a big difference over other weather companies! I highly doubt this bill will get put into law... I really do.

Mike

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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