TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop
Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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As far as the US is concerned, that is actually a good thing unless you like to see death and destruction...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO...MOVING AWAY
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM PDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Anything look like it may come close to the conus?
LOL! Is that real?
Average return periods for a US major strike (regardless of the particular ENSO cycle) is around 5-7 years so it is inevitable over the normal course of time.
Hurricane Andrew's Forgotten landfall......
Lousiana
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE INS TO THE E EXTENDING
ACROSS E CUBA TO E PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE UPPER FEATURES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-87W AND BETWEEN
13N-18N W OF 81W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
(Latest TWD explaining the convection around Cuba.)
Is this for REAL?????
Funktop
with no funk....
Get used to it!
No worries..........I understand your comment and appreciate the response. I was just making the observation that the US has been very fortunate in recent years. We are all agreed that it is a beautiful and awesome sight to watch a "perfect" major hurricane (fish storm) intensify in the middle of nowhere without a threat to people. It comes with Mother Nature's territory....... I know a few folks who moved from the California(LA) coast to the Florida coast (they love the water and beaches) after going through a few earthquakes on that end. They prefer the advance notice of a storm versus no notice of a major quake.
It is what it is....................
I'm not writing a full blog for it, but just to let you know, I've revised my numbers for the remainder of the hurricane season. The total count of named storms has been raised slightly to 15, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lowered to 6 and 3, respectively.
There is a below average chance of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast, with a slightly above average chance of a major hurricane landfall on the East Coast.
My previous forecasts are as follows...
May 8, 2012: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
June 1, 2012: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
August 10, 2012: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
I still can't figure out how its Low became a TropicalDepression while the Low's travel-speed was faster than its spin*... let alone how TD.7 stayed a TD while its travel-speed was more than 1&1/2 times faster than its spin.
* MaximumSustainedWinds minus travel-speed.
Kind of a metaphysical question. It was doomed from the start.
Link
Scroll down to see the local storm report
I can't recall a summer with so many strong storm events here! This was the 6th or 7th strong borderline severe event.
Also strong thunderstorms are developing just
NW of St. Petersburg now and skies are darkening here.
well it looked good early this moring around 1 am. but looks like its getting some more moisture back in its sytem again from that south blob. It loooks that way but i ight be wrong.
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