TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop
Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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They sure have had a lot of landfalls out there this year.
It's Tourettes.
stop jumping the gune there is a lot of dry air a head of ex TD 7 and it will have too put up with trade winds ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS are not CONDUCIVE for any kind of REGENERATION in tell may be the gulf of MX
struggle yes not denying that significantly no I would say that trad wind are slowing down and dry air is not as dry as early this morning
I'm not saying it will not get any dry air or fast trades but I am saying it won't be as much as you people think
the only thing that you missed out was that the trades were much more stronger with ernesto than with EX-TD7 trades are a whole lot slower than what ernesto had and trades are a bit weaker than last night so keep that in mind
I'm beginning to think you are wishcasting.... You are the most agressive on development on every storm this year, and you seem to think that everything will develop or intensify even in 30kts of SAL-laden shear. Please, think more about your forecasts before you make them.
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
TD 7's not redeveloping.
NOP
Just give your assessment, and let others give theirs.
NOT YET
yes it is its not refourming right now in tell the gulf if even at all
Did we not just go through this with Ernesto? All buoys in the East and Central Caribbean are reporting a very east to west flow of at least 15 knots. This is very conducive, as we saw with Ernesto, and with nothing to disrupt the trade winds ahead of the disturbance, I'm willing to bet they're actually stronger than what Ernesto faced.
Pluses:
- Moving to lower shear
- Warm water
- Still has some loose/broken circulation
Minus:
- Moving like a freight train
- LOTS of dry air in front (and moving fast makes it worse)
- Will probably never get above 20N and will interact with land before it has any chance to make use of a better environment
- No model support
But this is weather... and it is called forecasting.. so...
no it will do in the caribbean
Their Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out to 48 hours as you know...conditions are not expected to be favorable during that time. However, even I am on the redevelopment bandwagon if this gets into the NW Caribbean and Gulf like the GFS indicates.
I thought you were planning on sitting back for a while. Or was 30 seconds enough?
Conditions are not conducive for development. TD 7 is far less defined than even Ernesto was, and we saw how he struggled. Just my opinion of course, though since I don't forecast redevelopment my opinion is probably wrong to you.
nope ernesto had stronger trades
anyway can we all agree on what I said just a while ago
repeating
ok this is what I'm going to do for me and you I am going to sit back for while and I suggest you guys do the same anyway sit back and watch what happen and keep a close eye on the environmenteal conditions around it any changes will it be noted sound reasonable enought to you guys
ex TD 7 wont do any thing in tell the gulf like the gfs says things are not favorable in the Caribbean but may be buy time it gets too the NW Caribbean and gulf thing may be come a little more favorable
It's definitely possible it develops in the Gulf (though I don't think it will) but conditions definitely aren't good enough in the Caribbean like WKC is saying.
Looks like another SAOLA.
Even though a lot of them hit as TS , they still bring large rainfall to areas very prone to flooding, landslides, mudslides - and - we may never really truly know the true extent of damages.
ok now all enought of the argueing and let is sit back and watch
Not in 48 hours at least, I'd watch it though if it gets into the Western Caribbean. The GFS is predicting an ULAC to develop as I mentioned last night.
Presentations, discussions and forecasts here should not separate US....
The solution?
Everyone here has the liberty to express their forecasts.... No matter how weird they sound...
Who's going to prove it right or wrong?
TIME
TIME WILL BRING THE TRUTH....
TINY DUST SPECKS COULD HAVE BIG EFFECT ON HURRICANES
Satellite image of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space.Oct. 13, 2006 Never underestimate the power of something small. Researchers are finding that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust are linked to suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. (Click satellite image for larger view of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space. Click here for high resolution version. Image courtesy of NASA.)
Jason Dunion, a hurricane researcher at the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Fla., and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, studied the past 25 years of satellite data. They found that during times of intense hurricane activity, the large clouds of dust that periodically blow westward from the Saharan Desert are relatively scarce. In years when there were fewer hurricanes, the dust storms were stronger and tended to spread over much of the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
"The research conducted by Dunion and his colleagues is ..............
Link
shear map came out shear still weakening that lip of higher shear is geting thiner the 30kt are now dissipearing and continues to move WNW-NW
5-10kt starting to build more in the E caribbean shear tend. is also droping
vort at 850mb still good
vort at 700mb still good
vort at 500mb still need working on
lower convergence continues to build
steering continues to show W ward movement speed are a bit slower
ok end of update with conditions for 15Z
(this is all I'll be posting for w while this type stuff
no it wrong or this or that just what you see amd maybe some small comments on what I see
other than that mothing else)
My feeling is that TD7 has a chance of redevelopment in the extreme western Carribean where trade winds slow down and air piles up and creates lower convergence and upper divergence! Wind shear is also low in that area and the TCHP is high!! The GFS is hinting at redevelopment in the BOC or GOM and i think this is a reasonable solution!! Remeber Ernesto never really got his act together until just before landfall on the Yucatin!! My best forecast is western Carribean or GOM,,,,not before!!
A very cool start across the Cookeville area this morning as temps were in the 50's for the second morning in a row. We dropped to a low of 52.7° (the record low was 49° in 1964), which is the coolest morning reading since the sixth of June when we had a low of 50.6°.
NWS Discussion NOLA
They said it is normally 3miles wide there, and now the water level is so low that it is only 0.3 miles wide.
I figure that must cut the flow rate to about 5% of what it is supposed to be.
How are we going to manage cargo transports if this gets too dry?
It will take several new rail roads to make up the difference if the river dries up and stays dry, and that's just a start...grain elevators and other companies will have to install totally new systems for loading cars instead of barges...
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