Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.
Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.
92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.
A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I wonder why 06Z GFS doesn't do anything with it seeing it has a 70% chance of developing within 48 hours.
Perhaps 12Z run may show development.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.
92L needs to be watched to say the least!
nah not really look on it from rainbow you can see convection starting to build on the W side of the circulation
so its not gonna hit me, and its not major
(The NHC cited his work in the first discussion for Florence)
(Key: Low activity = 1 tropical cyclone; Medium activity = 2 tropical cyclones; High activity = 3+ tropical cyclones.)
"August 2-14: High Activity; Confidence 50%. Conditions are projected to become favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during this time as the convectively active phase of a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) passes over the Atlantic. The declaration of Tropical Depression 5 has occurred while superimposed with the convectively active phase of this strong CCKW.
With regards to the MJO, using an EOF analysis composed of U200, U850, and VP200, the MJO is providing a favorable environment for deep convection over the East Pacific (Phase 8). This location is different than what most real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices suggest using U200, U850, and OLR for the EOF calculation. The added value of using VP200 instead of OLR in the EOF calculation is that the new RMM principle components (PCs) capture more (OLR, U850) variance over the Western Hemisphere, serving as an improved RMM index there. RMM phase 3 is the most favorable phase for genesis, therefore suggesting the Atlantic will remain in active state through August 14. Further, Atlantic hurricanes are most frequent during RMM phases 1-3. Therefore, there is increased potential for any storms to develop to intensify into hurricanes during this time."
lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....
Hey "Killer," good to see you.
You are so right, :-)
I tried it....
*nosebleed*
I always wanted to know this: How accurate are the SHIPS intensity models and does it also have track? I never see a track from SHIPS model. If so then can someone please post a link here, thank you!
I can not argue with that. I have done my time in the NWS. Severe storms are really exciting to deal with, especially when your chasing them haha. Although, a tropical system is like a severe storm on steroids.
I prefer the classic over the new look.
yep so true I have a bad feeling about this one Chiggy it being further N it it follows a a Ernesto type track plus being further N it will be more of a problem for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
This look is kind of cartoony, in my opinion.
By the way... I think Ernie's a hurricane. And I'm assuming he'll be upgraded to a category 2 upon post analysis. There's no way he wasn't one.
Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.
Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.
"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."
"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."
Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren
invest_al072012.invest
AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,
Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?
Oh, and hello Aussie!
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.renFSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Going to be gone for a while later today. Ernesto is making landfall near Coatxacoalcos, MX.
Why me, just as I post this entry 92L is renumbered to TD7, I'll update that later today.
Thank you!
92L has it's LLC exsposed...
Good Morning
Don't know what part of the coast you're on, but I've got a History Page (Evernote file) pertaining mainly to Palm Beach County you might find interesting.
Isn't it nice the NHC has these crazy people....I mean, brave and passionate people, who will get themselves in as close to the eye as possible and take measurements, all in the name of fun and adventure?! LOL Ok, and science, but reckon the thrill is more than the science with the nutters...I mean brave and passionate folkes, really I do :D
Thanks for that :)
I gotta tell you there is no better at letting us know when there is a newly formed invest or storm. Good job Nea.
Well what happened with Humberto then?
Its not on the 11 am advisory though?
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