Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait
Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.
Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 — Blog Index
Has a partially formed anti-cyclone over it, so I think it's starting to gain some protection against the shear.
I don't want to speculate too much about the future shear environment 4 to 7 days out, but currently there is absolutely nothing in the regions the storm will be passing through during that time. The Yucatan Channel, BoC, and Gulf of Mexico in general have near zero shear.
Now a lot can change in 4 to 7 days, but hurricane warnings for U.S. landfalls will need to be issued 4 or 5 days from now, depending on track, and 2 or 3 days for various places in Mexico and Central America.
I suspect that if the storm gets through the John Hope zone as strong or stronger than it is now, it will be well on it's way to becoming a major hurricane either in the central Gulf or the BoC....eventually...
Official is 80kts at what amounts to 112 hours from now...
So that's only like 1kts increase every 3 hours....
Just like when Fay formed an eye over FL.
I agree with you. I have had to learn to keep a "lid" on weather adrenaline. Some times that can be hard when your mind is telling you the situation is about to hit the fan. An example of that is with Ernesto right now. I know a lot are discussing 91L and Ernesto becoming a Major hurricane in the NW Caribbean and Gulf but my concern is that this will happen even before he reaches Jamaica. So yea I am trying to keep a lid on it and see what everyone else thinks for the short term.
Well thats impressive. Now I can see mid level turning as well still at 77W/25N
Folks in Florida your going to get alot of rain by the looks of things regardless of what this does, but if I didn't know better I'd say they make this a TD later tonight..
Now that would of course be ONLY if the current pattern continues, any changes and that's out the door, 91L has a long way to go yet.
1805 is what I was replying to
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Link
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
A. 45
B. 50
C. 60
Rotation is clear here:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.
* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES EAST OF
PALMETTO TO 12 MILES NORTH OF NORTH PORT... AND MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PARRISH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
LAT...LON 2765 8206 2712 8205 2712 8242 2765 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 103DEG 4KT 2752 8224 2722 8222
yes
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Wow..
Talking about 90L, by the way.
Yeah. Some of the hype for 91L is almost laughable. Pressures in the NW Bahamas and SE Florida are around 1016 mb, which are typically much too high to support much surface development, and just about all of the convection in the Bahamas is occurring under 20-30+ knots of shear.
The thunderstorm activity seems to be just an interaction between a weak surface trough and a upper level trough.
they had a 42kts gust, wave ht has been on the increase aalso...
I'm that tall)
trust me I don't wanna know what he will do when he reaches near 90 degree water. Hurricanes tend to like that. All this heat this year in the northern hemisphere just doesn't make one feel easy when a big storm starts churning the water. I am wishing for the best along with everyone else. A large portion of the US could could sure use the rain to put out the heat.
Dude,It's close to land, where a lot of our fellow bloggers live.
I find 91L more interesting of the two atm, as 90L is largely exposed at this time.
More buoy data:
08 03 3:00 pm NNW 13 15 - - - - 30.00 -0.04 82.2
Emphasis mine as that shows evidence of a developing surface circulation.
Gotta be specific in times like this...lol. I know which storm you meant, but others are probably about to explode with excitement thinking you are talking about 91L.
yes they are expected to takeoff in about an hour or two from now
Prolly the old 100% chance saying that advisorys will likely be issued
91L hasnt even gotten in the Gulf stream yet I dont think..someone correct me if I am wrong..storms have been known to blow up real quick..never say never
B likely but C maybe
4:00 pm NE ( 56 deg ) 28 kts
3:50 pm NE ( 45 deg ) 12 kts
3:40 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 14 kts
3:30 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 17 kts
3:20 pm ENE ( 58 deg ) 12 kts
3:10 pm N ( 0 deg ) 10 kts
Look at the change between 3:50 reading and 4:00 reading. Up from 12 to 28 kts.
Yeah, I edited my post right after posting it. :P
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI
If that is for 91L then yes I would be in agreement.
Buoy data combined with radar and Vis sat pretty clearly shows a developing circulation over the Bahamas.
Where its going to go is a somewhat interesting question it appears to be drifting south atm.
Could also be a simple thunderstorm. The direction change is interesting... Which direction is that buoy from the estimated COC?
Viewing: 1851 - 1901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 — Blog Index