Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.
One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.
Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.
Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.
Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:
Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.
Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…
Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Posted on July 23, 2012
July 23, 2012 – AUSTRIA - Heavy rains hit the province of Styria, in central Austria, causing floods, landslides and mudslides. One person has been killed in Austria after torrential rains triggered mudslides and flooding across several provinces. Whole provinces were inundated with rivers of mud. 360 people living in an alpine region were forced to evacuate their homes after a torrent of mud swept through. The rain has destroyed houses, cut off villages and damaged roads. More rain is forecast over the coming days. –Sky News
Posted on July 23, 2012
Link
ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
You'll get your storm sooner or later. Seems the NOAA is fairly optimistic that we'll get a formidable strike this year. Just FYI the B/A high should be weakening this week, look for possible development.
A quote from Dr. Masters post above.
"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."
Jeff Masters
Stay safe tomorrow NC if storms build and anyone else affected by bad wx. Goodnight all.
I know, just need that map to say improvement for MI, not development like it says. I dont want a strike on the US but just something to track.
Im under a 2% tornado threat and a 15% wind & hail threat.Link
If this forecast becomes reality,it would have a 50-60kt storm directly into Hong Kong!
Tropical Cyclone Vicente just offshore from Hong Kong.Sustained winds are 75mph,Gusting to 90mph,974mb
Vicente SE of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is located at 22.4N AND 114.0E,With a population of over 7,000,000.
One last pic of Tropical Cyclone Vicente nearing the Chinese Coast.At this time models take it near Hong Kong and Macau.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS EACH DAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$
JELSEMA
So far this morning it's dry... and looking at the imagery it seems the TUTT has moved towards the northwest and is now over the Everglades.
Well, it was fun while it lasted...
Link
Probably 80kts or so right now... Latest JTWC update has 65kts.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI
24 Jun 2012 1011.98 1016.55 -41.19 -9.59 -5.34
25 Jun 2012 1010.72 1016.45 -49.35 -10.31 -5.85
26 Jun 2012 1010.31 1015.70 -46.96 -10.82 -6.29
27 Jun 2012 1010.79 1014.40 -34.44 -11.30 -6.59
28 Jun 2012 1011.50 1013.05 -19.96 -11.62 -6.68
29 Jun 2012 1012.75 1011.90 -3.09 -10.99 -6.45
30 Jun 2012 1014.69 1011.25 15.11 -10.20 -5.99
1 Jul 2012 1014.14 1012.30 5.48 -10.34 -5.77
2 Jul 2012 1012.39 1013.55 -12.99 -11.27 -5.64
3 Jul 2012 1011.71 1013.15 -14.71 -12.32 -5.43
4 Jul 2012 1013.71 1012.50 1.60 -12.40 -5.06
5 Jul 2012 1013.38 1012.95 -3.20 -12.14 -4.75
6 Jul 2012 1012.00 1013.05 -12.31 -12.09 -4.56
7 Jul 2012 1011.64 1011.75 -6.53 -12.01 -4.33
8 Jul 2012 1012.36 1010.35 6.52 -11.55 -4.07
9 Jul 2012 1012.47 1010.70 5.05 -10.92 -3.92
10 Jul 2012 1012.80 1010.80 6.46 -10.17 -3.76
11 Jul 2012 1014.09 1011.15 12.25 -9.06 -3.60
12 Jul 2012 1015.36 1011.45 18.22 -7.77 -3.48
13 Jul 2012 1014.97 1011.45 15.82 -7.16 -3.43
14 Jul 2012 1013.65 1011.25 8.92 -7.08 -3.39
15 Jul 2012 1015.43 1011.15 20.50 -6.65 -3.23
16 Jul 2012 1014.53 1012.20 8.49 -6.65 -3.18
17 Jul 2012 1015.39 1012.60 11.33 -5.98 -3.21
18 Jul 2012 1014.54 1013.10 3.02 -5.38 -3.39
19 Jul 2012 1015.05 1012.85 7.69 -4.47 -3.63
20 Jul 2012 1016.18 1014.35 5.42 -3.92 -3.85
21 Jul 2012 1016.61 1015.20 2.83 -3.37 -3.89
22 Jul 2012 1014.80 1014.20 -2.16 -3.36 -3.98
23 Jul 2012 1013.20 1012.95 -4.31 -3.22 -4.08
lol
Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012
NOTICE...THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INTERRUPTION OF SERVICES AUGUST 17-24 AS WE RELOCATE TO A NEW FACILITY. PRODUCTS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON AUGUST 27.
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RIDGE PATTERN AND WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE THE ISLANDS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS.MODEL ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE AT MID- AND LOWER LEVELS RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO AT 27-29N. THIS SUSTAINED A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 850-875 HPA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES BETWEEN 925 HPA AND 700 HPA...WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS. PWAT VALUES WERE LOW...IN THE 30-35MM RANGE.
MODELS SHOWING PATTERN GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MID-UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL PLACE A DENT IN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY 42-48 HRS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN. ALSO...ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 40-45MM DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW AXIS CROSSING THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE WETTEST SOLUTION IS THAT OF THE WRF-NMM...WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW 1 INCH AS THEY AGREE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE POOL WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WE
ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER TREND...YET EXPECTING LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-25MM/DAY MOSTLY IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY.IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."
Jeff Masters
Good morning everyone. Only .40" of rain yesterday but a whole lot of lightening and wind. Interesting clouds out early this morning.
That is very disturbing, Patrap, my first thought was the BP oil spill. What are your thoughts? I sure hope they can recover and begin nesting again soon.
Yikes, that looks like along MJO period, 2 Aug to 1 Sep at least.
Good morning, Doug and kumbaya my friend :) Thanks for getting that stuck in my head LOL!
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