Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:34 PM GMT del 03 Luglio 2012

+38

Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday's incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that "this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country." The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country's 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.

Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dry
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 - 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the "Wunderground U.S. Records" button to see them.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I'll be back Thursday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Sheep Mountain Ablaze! (turbguy)

The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...

Derecho Damage (apphotos)

A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Derecho in Catlett (Lokigrins2)

Ground strike reflected off car

Mink Creek Fire (troxygirl48)

Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.

Categories: Heat Drought

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1151. Patrap 02:29 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Rainbow Top Image Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112965

1152. Patrap 02:29 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
04E Daniel Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112965

1153. reedzone 02:31 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close.. I strongly disagree.. Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over. My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

1154. NCHurricane2009 02:33 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
I released another tropical Atlantic update around 7:00 AM...check it out... I considered the NW Atlantic feature a special feature when I wrote it...but its satellite appearance has gotten worse since 7 AM...so I don't think it will develop anymore... Member Since: Settembre 15, 2009 Posts: 301 Comments: 3389

1155. hydrus 02:33 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe: El Nino is coming for sure but we do not know yet how strong and the timing aspect in terms of Atlantic season shutdown. In any event, if El Nino effects were to establish themselves during Cape Verde time, the percentages for US landfall fall dramatically, but it only takes one to slip through. Here are some of the analog stats for the El Nino watchers: ENSO’s Impact on Regional U.S. Hurricane Activity SHAWN R. SMITH, JUSTIN BROLLEY, JAMES J. O’BRIEN, AND CARISSA A. TARTAGLIONE Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahasse Bove et al. (1998) also showed a decrease (increase) in hurricane landfall probabilities in the United States during El Niño (La Niña) events. For the period of record 1900–97, the mean number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States annually was 1.04 during El Niño years, 1.61 during neutral years, and 2.23 during La Niña years (Bove et al. 1998). For the same period, Bove et al. (1998) found the probability of two or more North Atlantic hurricanes making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline to be 28% during El Niño, 48% during the neutral phase, and 66% during La Niña. I would bet they have tweaked these stats since 1998,,Good post. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1156. NCHurricane2009 02:43 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting reedzone: If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close.. I strongly disagree.. Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over. My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible. What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season? Member Since: Settembre 15, 2009 Posts: 301 Comments: 3389

1157. GeoffreyWPB 02:46 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9247

1158. TampaSpin 02:48 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season? Currently DRY AIR and the Westerly Trade winds! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1159. weatherh98 02:49 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean. Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1160. cyclonekid 02:50 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Luglio 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1669

1161. hydrus 02:50 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting Grothar: OH, YEAH, Well, one lesson I learned years ago was never argue with a leatherneck. :) One cannot carbon date The Grothar Entity. It would be the equivalent of carbon dating a Higgs Boson, or something that was in existence before the Big Bang. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1162. reedzone 02:55 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season? Wind Shear and downward MJO Pulse. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

1163. weatherh98 02:57 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hydrus: One cannot carbon date The Grothar Entity. It would be the equivalent of carbon dating a Higgs Boson, or something that was in existence before the Big Bang. watched jurassic park, saw him in one of the containment zones Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1164. TampaSpin 02:59 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weatherh98: kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean. should track straight toward the Yucatan IMO...i don't see a turn like that coming. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1165. SFLWeatherman 03:00 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Maggio 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3118

1166. hydrus 03:02 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weatherh98: watched jurassic park, saw him in one of the containment zones They were his pets, They were no canines or felines during the Jurassic.. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1167. jeffs713 03:02 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weatherh98: kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean. What would cause that sharp of a turn, aside from the hopes and prayers of kids in SFL? Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5729

1168. PackManWx 03:04 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
as long as Orlando is in the clear through next Wednesday, I'm good to go. Debbie screwed up my vacation plans and I'm going tomorrow. Member Since: Giugno 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

1169. TampaSpin 03:07 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
THIS HIGH is just not going to move much.... Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1170. Tropicsweatherpr 03:07 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1026 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012 PRC009-015-025-035-041-043-057-069-077-085-095-10 3-109-123-129-133- 151-051545- ARROYO PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-GUAYAMA PR-NAGUABO PR- JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-SALINAS PR- SAN LORENZO PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-YABUCOA PR-AIBONITO PR-HUMACAO PR- 1026 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING TO SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO... AT 1020 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES SOUTH OF YABUCOA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8762

1171. weatherh98 03:08 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting jeffs713: What would cause that sharp of a turn, aside from the hopes and prayers of kids in SFL? the edge of the AB high. but i mean i leve in louisiana if you dont like that then... Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1172. LargoFl 03:09 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
hOT AND HUMID HERE IS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THE NEXT 5 DAYS Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

1173. weatherh98 03:09 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hydrus: They were his pets, They were no canines or felines during the Jurassic.. oh i see Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1174. hurricane23 03:09 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting reedzone: If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close.. I strongly disagree.. Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over. My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible. Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert. Member Since: Maggio 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13327

1175. hydrus 03:09 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
I was going to post the convective outlook for today, but too lengthy...It is interesting, and I believe there will be some rough stuff out there...SPC link..Link Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1176. hydrus 03:11 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting LargoFl: hOT AND HUMID HERE IS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THE NEXT 5 DAYS Florida is back in its usual summertime pattern...For now. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1177. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:11 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
This is no 45 moh tropical storm. This is at least a 65 moh tropical storm accOrding to satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS and SAB. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25954

1178. TampaSpin 03:11 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hydrus: I was going to post the convective outlook for today, but to lengthy...It is interesting, and I believe there will be some rough stuff out there...SPC link..Link TRUE RING OF FIRE around that HIGH..... Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1179. weatherh98 03:12 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is no 45 moh tropical storm. This is at least a 65 moh tropical storm accOrding to satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS and SAB. yes its been that way for some time. i think the NHC wants to be gradual withit. Fish anyone? Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1180. DaytonaBeachWatcher 03:12 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hurricane23: Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert. Reed: I dont think it is a good idea for someone to post what someone else "said". Being mis-quoted is not in the best interest of the site or anyone on it. JUST SAYIN' Member Since: Giugno 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1126

1181. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 03:13 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

1182. LargoFl 03:13 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hydrus: Florida is back in its usual summertime pattern...For now. YES, we could use some more rain here in Pinellas county, although to our north where the flooding still is they will suffer more if it rains hard again Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

1183. sunlinepr 03:13 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

1184. WxGeekVA 03:14 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Daniel looks like another one of those EPac storms that hit RI out of nowhere and get stronger than forecast. Member Since: Settembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3351

1185. hydrus 03:14 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hurricane23: Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert. Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14675

1186. sunlinepr 03:15 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

1187. K8eCane 03:15 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weatherh98: the edge of the AB high. but i mean i leve in louisiana if you dont like that then... Do you have a lisence to carry that red marker? Member Since: Aprile 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

1188. LargoFl 03:15 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

1189. Tropicsweatherpr 03:16 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Soon to be Emilia beggining to take shape? Link Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8762

1190. weatherh98 03:17 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting K8eCane: Do you have a lisence to carry that red marker? prolly not. Member Since: Giugno 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

1191. Dragod66 03:18 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
rainy day here i think the thunderstorm chance came and left now it looks like the sun is about to pop out! Member Since: Agosto 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 470

1192. K8eCane 03:20 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting weatherh98: prolly not. Well since its yu I will look the other way Member Since: Aprile 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

1193. hurricane23 03:22 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hydrus: Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development. There is some lag BUT i still think its affects will be felt during the peak. Member Since: Maggio 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13327

1194. Tropicsweatherpr 03:30 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PRC007-021-025-035-041-045-061-105-129-051600- /O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0003.120705T1524Z-120705T1600Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1124 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... AGUAS BUENAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... BAYAMON MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS... CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY... CIDRA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CIDRA... COMERIO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COMERIO... GUAYNABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... NARANJITO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... * UNTIL NOON AST * AT 1119 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CIDRA AND AGUAS BUENAS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WILL AFFECT THE NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES AS MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! && LAT...LON 1809 6597 1808 6602 1810 6602 1811 6605 1809 6613 1804 6613 1805 6620 1810 6623 1814 6622 1817 6623 1819 6626 1823 6626 1825 6629 1828 6623 1829 6605 TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 152DEG 56KT 1833 6617 $$ ER/GV Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8762

1195. reedzone 03:39 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
Quoting hurricane23: Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert. Ok, which is why I first stated "if I read correctly".. Which was very late last night and I was dozing on and off.. Sorry. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

1196. aspectre 05:08 PM GMT del 05 Luglio 2012
1156 NCHurricane2009: What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season? It's slowing down cuz 66NamedStorms in 2012 would mean that the AtlanticSeason is just a big show-off Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

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