Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:52 AM GMT del 26 Giugno 2012 | +34 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Nuh-uh...
And I wonder if we hit the convective temp today...
Where I am no except for the outer islands like Anna Maria.
Already had 1 family vacation messed up! Plus Florida doesn't need any more rain and storm
Good news for those in Florida! It appears both subsidence from Debby and a building ridge in her wake will completely dry out Florida Friday through next week. The only bad news is. It could possibly get real hot! Right now forecasters are being conservative with low-mid 90's, but I would not doubt them tweaking their temps on up towards the century mark!
That's good. Were you in a drought before this storm?
Very much so but Debby has wiped out.
Well, we are at 104 at the moment with probably two more hours of heating left today. I'd say it is at least plausible. :P
As for the impulse itself, it's way up there, at the 200-300 mb level. In fact, it looks like it might be from the same ULL that has been shearing Debby!
Hill City, KS:
Corpus Christi, TX:
Denver, CO:
102 degree air temp
75 degree dewpoint
117 degree heat index
Yup, there go a few of them. I imagine that they'll generally be quick pulse type storms, but they could produce some strong winds due to the huge dewpoint depressions that often result when the temperatures get this hot.
And that skew T is of this morning's data, so just draw out the temp line along the dry adiabat to the 40*C line at the surface. That's how hot it is at the moment.
We had seagulls bathing and floating around in our parking lot in Jax Beach yesterday and today, if that is any indication as to the amount of rain we have had.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.
* Timing... gusty southwest winds will continue through early this
evening.
* Winds... southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts of
40 to 45 mph.
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC013-015-021-025-029-041-051-055-089-091-123-149 -157-163-175-
177-185-187-209-239-255-285-287-297-311-325-453-46 9-473-477-481-
493-270300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0432.120626T2025Z-120627T0300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO
COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND FRIO GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS JACKSON KARNES
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MEDINA TRAVIS
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON WILSON
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...
It's a good thing we're late into summer with those temps. Relief is on the way! <<<<< sarcasm
If only someone had predicted more frequent, intense and long-lasting heat waves.
Hey Largo...I'm not seeing much on satellite, but I'm not sure if the models are predicting development in that area.
anyhow, i must say this storm has been full of surprises. and it should be a loud wakeup call for those who think lightly of tropical systems. if a minimal tropical storm can conjure up this much destruction, imagine what a much stronger storm meandering in the gulf can do. the people around tampa should especially take heed. this storm showed the vulnerability of the highway system. closed bridges and expressways limits access and more importantly, evacuation routes.
Good afternoon nigel. The Euro develops at EPAC and this is day 10. GFS develops on longer range.
WWUS40 KWNS 262024
WWP2
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
WS 0432
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%
&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 05025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO
&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.
$$
Not yet but almost is reaching Chris.
03L (Chris)
Operational
2.7200
04L (Debby)
Operational
2.3225
The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch
432 in effect until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
areas
In southeast Texas this watch includes 10 counties
Austin Brazos Burleson
Colorado Fort Bend Grimes
Jackson Waller Washington
Wharton
This includes the cities of... Bellville... Brenham... Brookshire...
Bryan... Caldwell... College Station... Columbus... Eagle Lake...
Edna... El Campo... Hempstead... Lake Somerville... Missouri City...
Navasota... Pierce... Prairie View... Richmond... Rosenberg... Sealy...
Sugar Land... Weimar and Wharton.
The wind field is reminiscent of a subtropical cyclone with strongest winds far removed from the center. However, there is no indication that it is subtropical. It just has a really strange wind field. Also bear in mind, as I mentioned earlier.... there has been more sun to the southeast of the storm (thanks to dry air entrainment), therefore it is allowing the stronger winds just off the surface to mix down.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
western Harris County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Waller County in southeast Texas...
* until 415 PM CDT
* at 322 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 12
miles northeast of Katy... or 7 miles west of Jersey Village... and
moving southwest at 20 mph.
* Locations in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning include but are not
limited to Brookshire.
CHRIS: 2.7675
DEBBY: 2.3225
BERYL: 2.1600
ALBERTO: 1.3750
Of course, if the NHC maintains Debby as a tropical storm at 5, her ACE will go up a bit. But at Debby's present strength, it would take another 24 hours to overtake Chris.
Thanks for the info, Tropics. What is the weather like in Puerto Rico at the moment?
Viewing: 701 - 751
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