Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:52 AM GMT del 26 Giugno 2012 | +34 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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A few showers moving thru. I posted on your Caribbean blog what may be a better chance for plenty of rain as an active wave (Now around 37w) will move thru by Monday.
Nope. Initiated near my house, but no rain fell. Areas 2 miles to my SW got dumped on, tho.
Is that wet stuff? To bad it won't make to the coast...
Not quite yet.
Above you can see the mostly dry thunderstorms attempting to set Boulder County on fire...
Agreed. I think we some times underestimate the effects weaker of Tropical systems...hopefully lessons will be learnt from Tropical Storm Debby, so that they could negate the effects of a future storms.
Lol. Of course, right now, this means that my house got the outflow and cooling from the storm, while people that got just a little rain now have stupidly high humidity.
It's not like any of Debby's
bath water is cold...
Got it. But I will say that Sunday's rain event was one of the most intense weather events I have ever experienced.
When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade... but be sure to save some to squirt into people's eyes when the time is right.
(At least I'm *trying* to stay positive... Tomball gets screwed more often than not with rain events during a drought)
I'm hoping for the some rain as well...the eastern end of Jamaica is now experiencing drought conditions and water limitations, so any rain would be welcome at the moment.
WTNT24 KNHC 262058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MEXICO BEACH TO WEST OF STEINHATCHEE HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM STEINHATCHEE TO ENGLEWOOD
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 83.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 83.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
This is why it seems like such an unusual tropical storm. Now why they interacted in this way, well that is above my pay grade. Perhaps someone else can explain it.
Click on the main US map on the Wunderground main page and you will see the blue frontal boundary marked just to the north of where all the heavy rain is still occurring.
5:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 26
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: ENE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
AN AIR FORCE MISSION THAT ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED
ON THOSE DATA...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IN THE FACE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEBBY IS GENERATING ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND HAS LESS THAN A
FULLY TROPICAL APPEARANCE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PASSAGE OF DEBBY OVER LAND...IN ADDITION TO THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS CITED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEBBY TO WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS
FAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE
AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AS ADVERTISED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS...DEBBY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/05. THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS RELATED TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-
TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE GFS
BRIEFLY SLOWS THE CYCLONE MOTION IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
FAILS TO CAPTURE DEBBY AS STRONGLY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Hey MA...do you think that Debby will restrengthen after traversing Florida?
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS."
over a square mile......
If she survives the trip, I think so... I wouldn't be surprised to see her near hurricane status briefly since conditions should be favorable... I'll say a 65mph second peak.
I thinks so too..thanks much!
Don't know if you saw this but Lamar set a new temp. record of 107 today..
Compare that to the worlds highest temp for today was 116 in Marrakech,Morocco..just 9 degrees above Lamar..according to WU
Very hot conditions in Colorado..
PS..The homepage here at WU shows Lamar now at 110..
Lamar CO
Link
Well crud... I know most eyes are on Debby right now, but it sounds like at least one of those brand new fires in Boulder County has gotten enough momentum to warrant an air tanker and helicopter response. Just did a quickie check and this 6-acre-and-growing fire is a mere SIX miles east of my house.
Just have to focus on work a couple more hours and then I can rush home to review my evacuation preparations.
Think humid thoughts for us out here - looks like Ma' Nature has nothing for us in the short-term:
Oh geez, no I hadn't heard that. If I hear "well at least it's a dry heat" one more time I think I might scream... dry heat is the last thing our tinderbox forests need right now.
Really hope so, guys. It's getting so dry here in St. Thomas. The water trucks are starting their convoys over here!
Lindy
leaving the cooler upwelled waters behind
and moves out over fresher warm water
and a stream for good measure
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