Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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That's a form of wish casting hahaa
That ain't a reliable run!
Hi TX. SE TX explains your WU handle perfectly. lol. I'm not believing the models right now either. Waiting to find out why the HPC changed their graphic from this morning's when they had the low sitting in the mid gulf throughout. Apparently the discussions take longer. :)
10:30 AM
I hope once a COC is initialized as center point for modeling that Texas gets the tropical mositure as they need some rain.
We don't need it that much in Florida-thankfully.
A LOT of people need rain, being anywhere from below average to various levels of drought, so we're all sort of hoping for rain.
It would be amazing if the CoC somehow went right over Mississippi and Alabama, as long as it's TS or weaker, because then Georgia would get the wet side and maybe break their drought. But that probably wouldn't happen unless it stalled a ridiculously long time.
These are both good points (both the south and east prognostications.) Going to have to keep a good on on the vis loop today to see where the center really may be coming together.
Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
lol why is that?
Would be surprised at all to see a new center finally forming about 30 mile NE of Cozumel.
96L is poorly organized, with possible multiple surface centers and very poorly organized convection. It will need some serious time to get it's act back together.
So this are my theories:
-Moves fast to the North,Rapid Intesificacion, goes to Florida.(GFS)
-Moves Slow to the north,slow in develop,but if will stay in the gulf will develop, for some day and for me could be a cat.1 hurricane if he stay in the gulf,goes to Texas or New orleans. (NOGAPS,ECMWF,CMC)
what do you think guys?
Sounds reasonable. From what I've read the more disorganized it stays the higher chance of an E/NE track? If it spins up and organizes maybe more chance of a more northerly track?
I understand that. TWC says Florida. Cantore is saying he doesn't think it will hit Florida. They even have a conflict amongst themselves lol.
Tampa is a nice place for Debbie to visit.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE DETAILS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY DOWN TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL/NE GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE SUITE
IS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THE LOW CENTER (REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH) TO
THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST WATERS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA AROUND THE CIRCULATION. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE
WIND SPEEDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
MARINERS ARE URGED TO STAY UPDATED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...RESULTING COLUMN MOISTURE...AND CYCLONIC FORCING ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO KEEP OUR FORECAST ON
THE WET SIDE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN
SOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM. THE GFS IS THE LEAST
PROGRESSIVE AND LEAVES THE SYSTEM VIRTUALLY STALLED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MS DELTA. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH BEGIN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
WEST FROM THIS POSITION TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/TEXAS
COAST. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTION ARE THE RESULT OF SOME VERY SUBTLE
CHANGES IN COLUMN STEERING...AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO POINT TO
ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AS THE CORRECT ONE. WITH TIME...INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WILL TEND TO
DRIFT THE CENTER OF LOWEST PRESSURE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL TAPER THE LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY BACK TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE TRENDED BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
Yep. If Santore is on your beach you are safe. Storms seem to hit the other TWC guys.
You've got that mixed up lol.
Because where cantor goes the storm goes the opposite, you recon being a weather guy he could atleast get into an eye wall once in his life.
They should run the mission just for the heck of it, to get some real data, regardless of how poor the system looks.
I'm sick of guessing what's going on, and the models absolutely suck.
That's the spirit!
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