Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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75% Texas
25% Florida
mash it
I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast.....ps,i expect a td to form and meander in the eastern/central gom and go no where,but should flood parts of fl with 5-10",isolated up to 15"
Action: Quote | Modify Comment Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 4887
The GFDL 06Z run does not develop it, and winds do not exceed 22knots.
If it ultimately does what the GFS is showing hats off to the NWS. The jury though is still in deliberation on this.
75% Florida lol
I would say from different levels of the atmosphere being affected by either the ridge or the trough.
The GFDL is a poor model. It used to be good, but not anymore.
Just waiting on Dr. M's take at this point and gonna watch and wait for better organization over the next 24-48.
The upgrades did well because.... IT PUT A STORM OVER YOUR HOUSE AHAH
JK that's your opinion I'll go with the euro
WHXX01 KWBC 221232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120622 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120622 1200 120623 0000 120623 1200 120624 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.8W 24.0N 89.5W 24.6N 89.8W
BAMD 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.3W 24.2N 88.0W 25.4N 87.9W
BAMM 22.5N 88.3W 23.1N 88.6W 23.8N 88.9W 24.6N 88.9W
LBAR 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.4W 24.5N 88.5W 25.9N 88.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120624 1200 120625 1200 120626 1200 120627 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 89.9W 23.8N 87.8W 25.0N 83.3W 26.3N 77.4W
BAMD 26.3N 87.8W 27.2N 87.3W 27.9N 84.2W 28.0N 74.7W
BAMM 24.9N 88.8W 25.1N 86.8W 26.8N 82.0W 28.7N 72.2W
LBAR 27.1N 88.2W 27.8N 87.3W 29.5N 84.3W 32.2N 79.0W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS 51KTS
DSHP 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 88.7W DIRM12 = 43DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 89.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
The broad low is so big, and the system poorly defined, such that models make up fake crap from every potential blob of convection.
It really needs to get stacked before I start trusting models.
agree and if this is right the hh will find a ts when they get there this afternoon and the blog will go into overdrive im still keeping my eye on that ull just east of so fla as long as that hangs aroundd this will be a so fl storm but if it fades it could go to texas instead stay tuned going to be a fun day here enjoy your third cup of coffee
On a more personal note, I *really* hope it does go towards STX as a tropical storm, or towards the big bend area as a tropical storm, as both of those areas desperately need the rain.
I am still waiting on the 20 inches of rain for Fl you were hyping 2 days ago Jeff. You should be the last person to call out anyone on this site!
What would be the motivation to use altitude winds where no one lives to categorize a storm? The NHC is not doing anyone a favor when storm damage requires an insurance claim and their rigging the category results in the hurricane deductible kicking in. Thanks for nothing.
Congrats. Teach her some weather when she's older in sure you will do great! Good luck
So I say, 96L gets into the Gulf and starts going in circles, never making landfall, and making "Whoo Whoo Whoo" noises like Curly from the Three Stooges. It upwells deeper colder water in the Gulf, causing it to fall apart and shut down the Gulf to tropical development for a month.
Either that or it hits somewhere between Mexico and Florida. That should cover my bases!!
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
Florida 75%
Texas 25%
Texans percentages on landfall
Florida 25%
Texas 75 %
Everyone else's percentage on landfall
Who the heck knows where it's going
Using that I'd say 21 86 but that's not a huge dif
So what you're looking at is the TC that forms will just feed a huge amount of moisture into the trough and rain on Florida and Georgia anyway, even as SE Louisiana gets absolutely deluged during the "Stall".
In some frames there are on-land rainfall rates above 4 inches per 12 hours, both in Louisiana and Florida, as well as extreme SE Georgia.
Then again, it could be completely wrong and not worth looking at.
That's why I shouldn't focus on models.
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