Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hey, TSpin! I thought you moved.
That is why I used the word 'potential' in my statement...
Yes, Tropical Storms can be nasty too! But not like a Major Hurricane though. Losing power is one thing, losing everything is quite another.
Obviously has not been hit by a storm.
Did you stay up late last night for the 00z? lol...'morning everyone, 96.
It wasn't supposed to, no one was expecting development overnight so I don't know why people are disappointed. The low pressure center remains very broad but is slowly making progress. The Yucatan is what is disrupting rapid development. Once the ULAC gets centered over the low, you should probably see the system ramp up.
Wow, your downcasting is almost trollish... Lol, just kidding, I think you're right... The low is too big to consolidate as fast as we had thought, and I don't think it's close proximity to land is helping it either... We will still see Debby out of this, but not as soon.
Whoa, are those 60 kt winds in the Central Gulf?
Excellent graphic.
Notice the exponential trend much?
lol
I need you to level off to 5,000 and slow to 180.
It may not even develop at all. Could be that it splits off into two pieces of energy like the GFS was hinting at with two tropical systems, only maybe neither make storm status until the trough clears out, then what energy is left down in the Gulf could have a chance to develop. Right now I just think there is too much competition for anything to organize. That trough down there is hurting it as much as it has been helping it. And then you have this...
i wish you guys would stop posting the chart i find it annyouing when you guys this keep posting and posting it
right now i dont see that happing
Ya Right....LOL....NO THANK YOU!
1845. stormpetrol 1:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2012
Check this out same ascat I posted it last night.
If you look at the CIMMS sheer chart below, you can see the band of sheer, which is causing this lopsided appearance, probably blowing in the 20-40 kt range across this quadrant of the system.
Link
If you look at the CIMMS sheer tendancy chart below, currently, that same band has an increasing tendency with the exception of a dropping tendancy directly north of the Low.
Link
My point is that this diagonal band of sheer is acting like a straight line wall preventing further organization by not allowing any of the convection to the East to wrap around and consolidate around the emerging COC. However, the path of least resistance at the moment is due North.
Will be interesting to see if the emerging COC will take the path of least resistance; which could initiate the system a little further to the East.
I live in the Big Bend of Florida and just topped off the gas tanks at the house before coming into work just in case.
No go according to the NHC discussion
It does, a tremendous amount. If this were over land, it would be bad
I still pop in and out sometimes tho!
Beryl must have been much worse in some areas near the landfall location than others. I was in Jax Beach for the storm and the highest winds officially recorded here were 46 gusting to 62 mph. I waited for the eastern "eyewall" to hit and the winds as it moved through were 20-25 mph.
On the recently posted windspeed map of the Gulf, are those 60 kt winds north of the Yucatan?
Thankfully, I have never experienced going through a major hurricane and God forbid I hope it never occurs for me, or anyone for that matter.
I can only imagine the calamity that ensues in the aftermath. So, I sinccerely pray that 96L won't become a major hurricane for all along the Gulf Coast.
Could be smaller storm than previously thought, and maybe sort of whip around the broad low to it's NW as that feature meanders around or moves west.
This might be the "Split" some models indicated.
The GFS does develop this system, and makes it down to a 998mb low. It's having serious convective feedback problems and showing that highly unrealistically the convection will move over Florida and develop over the Atlantic. This solution should be discarded as no other models support this.
?
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
Well ya'll look at that!
Lol sorry I was up all night celebrating the Heat championship what I meant to say is 21N/86W.
AL, 96, 2012062212, , BEST, 0, 225N, 883W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
Meanwhile, Chris is still held as a TS by ATCF:
AL, 03, 2012062212, , BEST, 0, 448N, 455W, 45, 989, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 80, 180, 994, 80, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M,
Tampa....obviously! Shields UP! Sarcasm Flag: ON
Those aren't reliable models though... The LBAR, BAMM, and BAMD are simple, statistical models so you can mostly throw those out, the HWRF is good for intensity sometimes but not so much track, and the GFS is having major issues with this system... A landfall farther west along the Gulf coast still seems more likely to me.
ESL WV
Interesting, a little strengthening... Looks are deceiving us I guess.
ve
ha was just about to post that now they did join the gfs as i expected this run anyway i still believe threre is some kind of low forming to the east under that convection and the ull is pulling this tworads fla going to be interestin to watch this one enjoy your second cup of coffee
Did you mean North and West........
You got my hopes high...
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