Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 — Blog Index
Well, we are 12 hours ahead of then too. :-)
YOU GOT IT
Hehe...It's just a flaw of mine, I guess. :-)
Could the mid level rotation change to surface rotation?
Not much convection to the north.
I still don't believe in a fast track into the middle of a 594DM ridge...
Could, but that takes a lot of time. The 850mb vort shows you where the dominant low pressure is and it will eventually be surrounded by convection.
I don't I just dont see any convection being fired up right now. That isn't the case in the strait where thunderstorms are being fired up again.
Not through it...under it (south of it). One neat little thing to notice is that the ridge flattens over time and becomes more west-east oriented than north-south, due to the trough over the west U.S. coast moving around the ridge and flattening it out. This kind of a ridge ("banana" ridge) is much more conducive for a tropical cyclone tracking south of it, and would be more likely to capture 96L and bring it westward.
North-south oriented ridge 96 hours:
West-east oriented "banana" ridge 168 hours:
Maybe this can help you see it:
850mb
500mb (mid-level)
Also, surface winds still don't support any sort of low pressure at the surface in the Channel.
96 hours:
They are...and they are trying to resolve an indirrect result at the same time...I need to go find my earlier post and re-post it. All of these spit something small out to the NE and that is the actual storm. The Euro is also resolving something that likely will not be there.
Maybe so...12z looked more North-South oriented.
You're saying the tiny split that a few models are showing is the actual storm splitting off and moving NE? I don't think so....far from it, actually.
Been forecasting hurricanes long enough (well since 1985) that I'm going to make a forecast here based on what I'm seeing in the obs, the satellites, the models, and climo. The system will progress north into the North Central and Eastern Gulf. As it does, and forms into a tropical cyclone, the pressure gradient will result in stronger winds well removed from the center and to the North and Northwest in interaction with the High pressure "heat wave". Likely bringing dry but stiff breezes in the 30-35 MPH range to the northern gulf coast (think New Orleans to Pensacola for safe bets). Some models like the GFS resolve this pressure gradient by placing a stationary low in the North Gulf for days, while splittling a smaller low across Florida and into the open Atlantic. Others resolve this in other timeframes, but take an assimilated low toward Texas in order to resolve the wind gradient. That said, if I were thinking landfall (I AM), I consider the Florida Big Bend on Sunday through Monday between Apalachacola and Tampa for a storm impacts ranging from heavy rain to winds in the 60-85 MPH range.
Climatology dictates storms at this time of year do not hang around, and when forming in this area, generally find Florida. She's far enough north and east...and getting her act together to expect she will just move along slowly north the next 2 days then get picked up and go away.
Well then I'm glad of the faster run. :)
On the other hand, surface observations still suggest a well-defined circulation along the north coast of the Yucatan, much more defined than the one to the east, so who knows. Either way, we need convection over either of the gyres if we're going to get any real organization.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
320 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 26 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 29 2012
THE DEVELOPING OMEGA-BLOCK CENTERED NEAR GREENLAND FAVORS SLOW
MOVEMENT OF AN EXPANDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND UPPER
LOWS NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD
THROUGH DAYS 3-4/MON-TUE...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT INCREASES
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH THEN CAUSES
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AND WHEN THE LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL EJECT EASTWARD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET FARTHEST WEST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND
FINALLY THE GFS WHICH IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUPPORTS WEST OR
EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT EVENTUALLY BUT WHEN THAT BEGINS IS
CRUCIAL TO ITS PATH. FOR NOW...WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST POINTS BASED ON THE DAILY COORDINATION CALL
WITH THE NHC WHICH RESULTED IN A LOW REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GULF THROUGH DAY 7. ELSEWHERE...THE PRELIMINARY
PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE STARTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARD INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIME.
JAMES
I'm not taking offense to your comment what so ever... but you need to consider there are a lot of great folks on here and you need to be fair and respectful to them. You get no street cred in your statement as you FAILED to back it up with a tangible arguement. You gave nothing but a barb and a slur at me. Obviously, I made a forecast you did not appreciate....SO...If you are going to make a comment like this, you need to back it up and bring the thunder with a decent point-couterpoint. What are your thoughts, and how do YOU support it? What is your case? What do you bring to the table to back up the mouth? Don't just say something like CMC, GFS, EURO, NOGAPS, or opinion...you need to back it with an actuaul meteorological breakdown of what is going to happen in the Gulf of Mexico if you are going to throw darts. I've made my forecast, you have not. No fear friend, you've put yourself out there with a comment, just back it up now. It's simple, bring your case or cut it out with the smack and respect folks on here.
Hey, at home! I have a question: did I just witness a big microburst here http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?regi on=ngulf&channel=lc
about 200 miles offshore from Corpus? You see a large high cloud just sort of slip into a manhole.
We had a mega-downburst here about a week ago.
Yeah. I'm watching closely too. My son's family is on Matagorda Bay. The one good thing, he never listened to a thing I've said but he will run from a hurricane if need be. Lol. Hopefully it won't get that bad. Guess I should clarify. I don't live down there. Up on the TX/LA border here. Rita country. Where he learned to evac. Not that Rita was his first or his last. Lili evac was on his Bday. That happens to a lot of people in my family. Lol. But as Levi pointed out. A faster run as shown by the Euro means a weaker storm. One of the HPC discussions yesterday said once it felt the ridge it would go that way faster. So fingers crossed for a weak wet storm. :)
Wow I'm not sure what happened there. Strange though. I've been staring at the north Yucatan coast too long. Trying to see a spin. Lol.
5:00 AM AST Fri Jun 22
Location: 44.8°N 44.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
I promise it won't Tom, that is for sure. Hope all is good for you and look forward to continued discussions/hurricane tracking. If I am wrong, we just may have a Gulf of Mexico drunkard to track this go around. This storm is going to be interesting and maybe just a little bit wierd.
:)
Shell Oil
Location: 28.160N 89.22WDate: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and fallingAir Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 71.1 F
Viewing: 2451 - 2501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 — Blog Index