Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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GFS is putting 96L between the ridge to the west and the trough to the NE...thus 96L is in limbo and "trapped" in weak steering currents. That is the logic behind GFS.
Yeah, that happened with Arlene last year as well...how are you doing, Grothar?
Going to be a wet weekend Gro, Night All.
HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO
2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES BY THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS
ABOVE THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 2.25 INCHES AND CLOSE TO THE
MAXIMUM PWAT VALUE OF 2.7 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO, HAVE ADDED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 5 TO 7 INCHES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. WE WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT ON
THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
I believe that is right about where Bonnie died a couple of years ago. Just like that. Poof.
BTW, very intense convection on the way to school earlier today, driving into this was like driving into Niagra falls with all the additional tropical moisture in place!
A 240 we have a hint of something coming off Africa (also shown in the 18Z run).
That's a very nasty looking storm. Thanks for sharing.
Its hard to believe models just 3 days out :p
I said earlier this was going to be a LA/MS/AL event, and now my opinion is worth at least 5 cents. Models keep wanting to kiss our shores.
Also showing a 1005 low in the BOC at 252 hours.
Good night PP!
Coming soon: Weather warnings on the go!
Good Night Nigel.
It really was, rainfall rates easily 3 to 5 inches per hour in the core, some nasty boomers and enough wind to get your heart racing while driving.
I'm out too.
night Angiest.
I'm forecasting a 100% out on a limb chance that we'll all be back tomorrow.
I am used to laid back mets. You should hear my local ones when a potential snow storm is forecast in even as short as 4 days... they will say "there is a chance of snow on this day" or "some snow is forecast" snow showers or snow is possible".
No problem! I get a much better phone with a very easy share and upload feature, which I like because it allows me take take many great weather shots no matter where I am now.
It's funny cause we didn't get much rain further south at my house, but up at school easily 3 inches accumulated, I'm just happy I get to experience some big ones one way or another.
I've noticed that the norther part of Pinellas seems to get more intense cells than down here in Central Pinellas. I have frequently encountered some really powerful thunderstorms up between Palm Harbor in Tarpon Spring on the way to school.
the wind shear still strong about 20-30 knots, the NHc says is gradually when the upper level winds come to improve but still not a good environment, i think the next 24 hours is when we come to see something.
Going to be a wet weekend Gro, Night All.
HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO
2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES BY THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS
ABOVE THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 2.25 INCHES AND CLOSE TO THE
MAXIMUM PWAT VALUE OF 2.7 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO, HAVE ADDED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 5 TO 7 INCHES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. WE WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT ON
THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
hi all dmax is coming but is this from 96l or something else isnt 96l supose to go nnw tia
However, it can't be ruled out either, a weak and broad tropical storm with 2.4 to 2.7 inches PWAT's around could have no problem dumping 15 to 20 inches if it just crawls north and northeast into the coast. We shall see though...
A stronger system that lingers for a long time would be more likely to track west. But the big problem I have with that scenario is that a nearly stalled low that is this broad isn't very likely to become a deep, neither will crawling or drifting allow it to do so. With that being said I don't see a more western track being as likely.
I'm expecting more model consolidation eventually to the east as hurricanes hunters investigate it, we will also start getting runs from the HWRF and the GFDL to help get additional support on possible paths.
the wind shear still strong about 20-30 knots, the NHc says is gradually when the upper level winds come to improve but still not a good environment, i think the next 24 hours is when we come to see something.
It almost looks like the llc is there when you put the floater in motion.
Lets GO Heat! But back to the tropics we will see how this system fair tomorrow. Good night Folks!
Hey Stormchaser...what's your opinion on 96L
I'm (in Jamaica)having some light showers from the tail end of 96L...it's a fairly large disturbance...i'm sure that Cuba will be happy for it to move away.
Well thats just frigging beautiful.
It's the last thing Florida needs, a hurricane cannon aimed at it.
Anyhow...The idea, 96L moves slowly north in the gulf as forecast. A tight pressure gradient develops on the north Gulf coast as the system interacts with the ridge over Texas. All of a sudden...just as all goes well on the GFS...we see a split with a low popping out the east side of Florida into the Atlantic. In attempt to reconcile the tight pressure gradient that is removed away from the storm, maybe the GFS is creating this stationary feeedback low in the North Gulf that stays there and dies.
This may sound different, but instead of running from the model, I'm deciding to run at it in an attempt to understand what it may be trying to reconcile. If it is trying to reconcile this classic pressure gradient and having trouble with it...It makes a plausable explanation...as wind is a function of pressure. From there...one can smooth things out from here and consider a system slowly moves north...creates this removed, but pronounced pressure gradient, moves across Florida in interaction with the weakness, and the pressure gradient results in a feedback GFS low in the Gulf...which the GFS slowly winds down over time.
It's a thought that needs to be put our there as possible and plausable...It may not be the correct answer, but could be a possible solution to the issue. Right now, these models are trying to resolve a complex issue. At the least, we all need to consider that, put thought into that and what we do no, and consider the ideas...Discuss ;)
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