Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I took that down soooo fast....how did you do that?
Talking to TAWX requires a lot of energy.
idk??
You're welcome! =)
Lol...as if..
Is that a fact?
Someday I will do the math but I am thinking 100 tons at 25,000 miles per hour will make a pretty big bang when it hits the Earth.
Someday common resources like metals will be mined in space, but we need a cheaper and safer way of getting into and out of space first. Space ladder? Laser booster? Scram jet? Idk but something other then big expensive use once only rockets.
GEMPAK is available through Unidata and it has the old AWIPS in it. My biggest problem has been getting the data into it. I neither have a NOAAPORT nor IDD connection (though I might consider bugging the nice folks here at Rice for one.) Likely what I'll do is some scripting to pull the data off of either the NOAA FTP server or off of some other public system.
I do look forward to AWIPS-II when that comes out.
Well, you had me /running/ from my chair with that latest threat.
If we can't laugh at ourselves, we are taking life way too seriously. Made me smile.
Quit picking on people again! LOL!!
I couldn't imagine!
I just want this storm to stay away from Biloxi! I've had my fishing trip on Monday planned for 2 months with a friend returning from Afghanistan!
You are at Rice? My hubby is an alumn. Class of '91 Great school.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...CARIBBEAN TROUGH
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
22/0015 UTC 21.4N 88.9W 360/10 9.4 IN 5.2 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 4.3 TO 4.7 IN 2.9 TO 4.4 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 3.4 TO 5.2 IN 0.7 TO 2.9 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.7 TO 3.7 IN 0.0 TO 0.7 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.8 IN 0.6 TO 2.1 IN
...LEGEND...
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)
NNNN
Whatever Will. Go back to studying for your exam. :P
Chris should be declared post-tropical at the next advisory.
Biloxi or not, the waters all around the Gulf are probably not going to be the best for a fishing trip, sadly... How are you with sea sickness? :-)
goodness, anyone have rainfall totals for western Cuba over the last week or so? They've been getting pounded, relentlessly.
96L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
22.13N86.38W
Curious to see what the 2am TWO holds in store. Problem is, I'll be sleeping. :-( I must say that 96L has definitely done a great job through today organizing.
Yeah, I'm staying up for the update. Which should read something like
..UNEXPECTED 30KT RAFTING TOWARDS US IN MIAMI HAS MADE 96L'S ANALYSIS SOMEWHAT LESS AMBIGUOUS. IT MIGHT MAKE
IT TO THE BAHAMAS BEFORE ANY STACKING BECOMES APPARENT.
THIS MEANS YOU CAN START IGNORING IT NOW LIKE YOU DID WITH CHRIS. AND STOP POSTING GRAPHICS OF IT ALREADY.
Yep. (popcorn)
Mid-afternoon can be quite tense. Not so much with the after 5 crowd.
I fare pretty well. Packing Dramamine for this one though. Even if the storms stays away, making the run to the Barrier Islands seems unlikely. We would just stay in the bay. But if it comes close, gonna have to scrap the trip :(
Have until Saturday to cancel the hotel rooms, so we will just have to wait and see....
Hope it works out for you, or at least you know in enough time to cancel.
Tournament officials for the Emerald Coast Blue Marlin Classic could only watch as their field shrunk from 71 to a record low of 38 due to a low pressure system moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The system has fishermen expecting 12-foot seas, wind and a potential tropical storm.
Read more: http://www.nwfdailynews.com/articles/factor-50551 -marlin-sandestin.html#ixzz1yUJ6KSec
Thank you. I like to keep it fun in here.
Unless it makes that hard right turn, which not many are lending much credence to, I don't see it hitting anywhere before Wednesday either.
Watch this thing pull a Charley, RI, and smoke south FL...just to prove me wrong.
Do you think hurricanes read Wunderground blog posts? I do! ;-)
Geez it looks like it's moving east?? My old eyes are having a problem.
Don't worry, it'll be back tomorrow morning.
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