Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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Yep.
Need a Post #
Most Early Spawns occur in the BOC, GOM, Western Caribbean and climatology is the Image track source.
June Tracks, Images
If the ECMWF joins the western Florida crowd tomorrow, I will be a little more convinced. Until then, I'd rather side with climatology. And before anyone accuses me of bias because I live in Louisiana, if you must know, I mentioned earlier that any location in the Gulf is still at risk, including Florida. But right now, I still don't buy a sharp recurvature toward western Florida. The trough being depicted in the GFS is WAY too deep. For that to happen, 96L would have to be moving east of due north, which it is not. But stranger things have happened, such as the major August cold front that recurved Charley toward Punta Gorda and brought record lows to the Gulf Coast, so who knows.
There are some really humurous moments on this blog. I love it.
1889
Yer right, with more than 20 million posts for you, I should have included that 8>)
Yes, admittedly the start up costs for mining would be immense, but you can strip mine an asteroid and nobody cares.
The costs are immense, but the payload for some of these metals is incredible.
Models are operational while ensembles indicate several different scenarios based on possibilities in the large-scale pattern.
The term "forecast model" refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses many models as guidance in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts. The most commonly used models at NHC are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1. Summary of the mostly commonly used National Hurricane Center track and intensity models. "E" refers to early and "L" refers to late in the timeliness column. "Trk" refers to track and "Int" refers to intensity the parameters forecast column.
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS
Introduction
Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.
As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.
Hair grows faster than this thing has been moving.
Especially mine. I need a haircut.
1912
Thank you
Me. Have to be at work for 10, but I really don't care. :P
Whole gulf will be churned up like a washing machine due to it's size
only to some bloggers..
If it' gonna be around next Wednesday, what's the point.
Already have rip current warnings in Pensacola.
So you decided to stay home to track a tropical cyclone instead of working for money that is used to buy items for life sustainability?
Smart decision. ;-)
I've seen a number of northward style movement tracks for June doing a Google search.
It's just that since 1991, I'm use to ducking and covering for late storms (October plus) coming from the west (Mitch, Wilma for example) and early storms (through mid-September) coming from the east (too many to name).
- cheers -
Yesterday one of our weather guys said it had a 25% chance to Texas and 75% chance of going to Ala/Fla...
When it could possibly impact my area, yes. Don't forget that I have no bills to pay except the car I'll have soon.
How's thermodynamics treating you at A&M?
Lol that make me laugh.
Well from what i am looking at and all it looks like this system will develop.. I just hope it doesnt come near me.. But I can't control mother nature .. lol
That's the beauty of being in the biz, I get to track it and I get paid, especially if it eventually impacts our viewing area.
Convection is getting absolutely killed for the past few hours, obviously.
This wasn't exactly expected since earlier it looked like it might had a chance to get stacked.
That is reasonable. It's also a generated graphic (with some amount of error expected) using different inputs, none of which are OSCAT (most recent reliable). It's also generated with flags 20º to the Low. Because of this many times it lacks the sloppiness you will see on the scatterometers when a Low is tightening up to a depression.
The HWRF hasn't run for 96L yet, that is for Chris.
The HWRF decreases in accuracy the farther out from it's system and is no where near as reliable. Wait until the NHC decides to run the HWRF and GFDL on 96L specifically.
Not to be rude or nothing but it sounds like you live with your mom.
Sorry for the off topic post, I will be good from now on
If it impacts close I would not mind going check it out haha
So many hurricane experts in DFW. :)
I'm 21 and live with my aunt. I don't leech off her though; I take $240 out of the first check in the month to help her buy groceries.
I took it last year. It was a little rough at times, but it was good! I very much enjoyed it. I'm still in the process of applying everything to forecasting though.
to me that is just the ebb and flow of a developing tropical cyclone
That's actually what I was calling you about earlier. I'm going to see if my father won't go down to the coast with us. He loves weather as much as I do.
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