Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 — Blog Index
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
might as well thrw that out the window
They're typically issued when an invest reaches the 60% Code Red status anyways. We should see one soon.
gfs nukes tampa and the bam models do anything to avoid the land
From way back in the day...
(not the creator of this image)
because it goes right over your house LOL
Is she staying on campus? Tulane is on the Isle of Denial - above sea level.
Was about to post this. I certainly don't see a consensus for Texas that most people seem to be saying.
Imagine if that actually happened..
1985
I wonder what causes the models to break East for landfall.
I went to fill up the gas tank on the car because I read that the oil rigs are being shut down in the gulf in advance of Debby's birth. I live in Almonte, Ontario, a town about 30 minutes west of Ottawa, Ontario. I hadn't even notice the sun got blotted out.
As you may be aware, we are also a part of the extreme heat wave that's concentrated in New England and southern/eastern Ontario and Quebec. Temperatures in Ottawa reached about 41 degrees here with humidity... which is about 106 F. It's now just below 100.
I hadn't even noticed the sun got blotted out, but by the time I got outside, there were high winds and very large drops of rain... and these were clouds, the storms that come with the cold front thats going to end this extreme heat are not here yet... but I can hear them in the distance.
PS: Goodbye Chris. Thank you for being awesome!
.......why?
Mark
STAY SAFE !!! BE SAFE!!!
yea, my mom works there all the time. it didnt flood during katrina either if you were wondering
AL, 03, 2012062200, , BEST, 0, 432N, 428W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 20, 10,
Exactly. Plus you don't just leave a drilling rig. It takes usually a minimum of 18 to 24 hours to get rigged down and in storm position before you can leave. So it's a tricky waiting game most of the time because it's a ton of money lost if you rig down for an evacuation and the storm doesn't even come your way. So it's usually a last minute deal getting off of one. Production platforms are much different. They pretty much just shut-in and leave.
Me too. Looks like Michael will be my destroyer.
Dude do you have me on ignore.And if so someone quote this.Cuase it's really useless to keep quoting someone that has you on ignore.
Probably the Xtrap motion in that direction
yup i did hahaha
I live 1 mile from Tulane University Uptown, near St. Charles Ave..and that's the Highest ground in NOLA save for Audubon Zoo at Audubon turn.
As with any situ, Visitors,infants, Elderly,and the Special Needs Groups all are asked to Leave early in a Evacuation.
New Orleans Weather at a Glance
Weather Station - report
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
She'll be in one of the safer areas of town, above sea level, great neighborhood, and I'm sure the folks at Tulane will treat her as one of their own and look out for her and her friends. But you're from Florida, so you know the drill with hurricanes overall. Make sure she knows the drill, too - batteries, flashlights, water, text messaging, etc (that's just Mom to Mom, though).
Coastal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 2:38 PM CDT on June 21, 2012
... Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday...
* coastal flooding... minor coastal flooding of less than one
foot expected.
* Timing... flooding will occur during each high tide cycle.
Highest tides will occur in the afternoon hours.
* Impacts... minor overwash of low lying roadways in the immediate
vicinity of the coast. Tide levels will peak at 2.5 to 3.5 feet
at time of high tide. Actual flooding will be less than one
foot.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
Can someone LINK me to a news outfit that an oil rig is SHUTTING DOWN. I work for an oil company and I haven't heard that in our camp.
Do note what Pat posted earlier - crude was off a lo today and mogas was down with it.
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 — Blog Index