Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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yes i would agree
1384
Seems reasonable with the convection there.
North American Surface Analysis
Hourly Surface Data for the Continental U.S.
View the National Weather Service Unified Surface Analysis
HPC's Surface Analysis Archive
Surface analyses in jpeg format
Omg!!!!!!
To describe someone who disagrees with you as a troll...surely on any forum debate and free exchange of views should be encouraged .. That is a totalitarian definition! Surely on a website based in a country that prides itself on freedom of speech as a right ;that is in fact a trollish definition. And feel free to decribe me as a troll as I cant agree to calling people trolls over a difference of opinion
Goodnight:)
Thanks.
id go to the lake
hit where?
Don't think we can know the timeline without knowing the direction, and that's still a mess trying to forecast.
Might be able to do a, "if it were to go to insert_location" when would it get there...?
i just missed it but if i had to guess.... 13 he always posts em first hah
I'm guessing 60%.
What have I missed, besides Hurricane Chris? What have the models done with the Gulf disturbance?
staying 50%
we have 96L
Well that sure shifted West quite a bit.
*raises hand*
lol
They're taking 96L to Texas, except the GFS is still being screwy with the trough and somehow believes it will be split in two. Entirely unrealistic.
I think 60% for the TWO is reasonable.
definitely right their -)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
You Keep?
LOL
this is the heat potential and the SST, right in the center of the gulf and near the coast of TX, this image shows that not only the surface is hot, in the depth the temperature is hot also. this is why every storm in that region with low wind shear is a danger.
anywhere
I'll throw in some 8-track tapes as well! ;>)
NEXT 48 HOURS.
oh boy..this blog will be a mess
Still appears to be a large spread.
"surface observations indicate that the low pressure system
is gradually becoming better defined and surface pressures are
slowly falling across the area. Upper-level winds are also
improving and are forecast to become more conducive for development
of a tropical depression during the next day or so"
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Viewing: 1401 - 1451
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