Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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hahahha...evacuate the whole gomex coastline! Shields UP! lol!
LOOP
OK. I think 96L will make landfall somewhere between Florida and Texas as anything ranging from an invest to a hurricane.
Is that a good forecast?
Just joking around...but it is still too early to tell.
Great analysis if it continues N/NW shear it will run into a wall of shear 20-30 knots
Link
However the upper ridge is spreading more NE
So if this system continues to organize it will need to move/redevelop further NE along the anticyclone and the Convection. The shift in consensus was because the LLC developed further west and the models thinks it will continue on its N/NW track thus makes it more likely to get caught in a High. But an NE track or a redevelop to its convection will likely mean it feels the influence of the trough also if it deepens some as well. Bottom-line its too early to tell.
Yes. That is a great example.
Your buddy in SW Florida might be between floors or something. A lot of people in SW Florida make the low rain whine just about every year. But .... look at the charts. They are quite blessed annually in relation to many other areas of Florida.
You are more broad and all over the place than the models
Talk about fizzling! That dried up within a matter of seconds, it seemed!
Donny boy wasn't sheered...he ingested dry air..I think?
Heat is on, watching tropics...
Forecast Discussion
High pressure will squash rain chances for the next few days bringing us summer heat for the next several days.
We'll see afternoon highs climb from the middle 90's back into the upper 90's, if not close to 100 for the afternoons between Saturday and Tuesday.
There will be no rain chances for these days. The big "x-factor" in the forecast lies beyond Tuesday as a developing tropical wave currently in the western Caribbean will likely become another depression within 48 hours. The Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of doing so.
Models are all over the place in its eventual track. The 2 scenarios differ tremendously and it warrants close scrutiny for all of SE Texas over the weekend and next week.
The same high pressure on top of SE Texas may break down and move west allowing would become "Debby" to move towards Texas by next Wednesday.
Another solution is the high pressure remains in place and moves back towards Florida as a hurricane. The models are increasingly favoring the first scenario of a westward track, so please continue to watch the system.
In other news: Man bites dog.
I hate tropical weather when it affects south Florida, screws up everything and I'm stuck indoors because of the wind and thunderstorms.
Ain't gonna happen, I got the shield on!
LOL!!
As I have been saying since yesterday, Texas may see a significant hurricane.
Florida should still watch it, but the trough does not look impressive enough on globals to pull it to FL>
I'm glad you can honestly rule out Florida when the system isn't even developed yet. May I borrow your crystal ball for the rest of the season? ;-)
I wouldn't go that far, I would say that Florida is less likely now but as the models show, it can change every run. As one of those "Florida people" I think we all need to wait and see what happens when the models get data from the HH and stop calling names:)
You have a point there with Beryl, but he fact that the Euro jumped West after the invest was established kind of has to make a statement. I do think the GFS is a good model but I just cannot see this storm splitting into 2 lows. That just does not sound feasible to me. However, anything is possible.
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