Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Looks that way right now - but as we all know, that could change. 12-24 hours of model and track runs SHOULD give a much better idea.
Throw that run out the window, that run is invalid!
ok but well keep a eye on his posting
TIME
(CDT) 5-day plot - Wind Direction WDIR 5-day plot - Wind Speed WSPD
3:50 pm WSW ( 249 deg ) 12.4 kts
3:40 pm WSW ( 241 deg ) 15.3 kts
3:30 pm W ( 259 deg ) 20.8 kts
3:20 pm W ( 268 deg ) 24.3 kts
3:10 pm W ( 260 deg ) 27.0 kts
3:00 pm W ( 265 deg ) 28.6 kts
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR
2:51 pm 31.1 kts W ( 270 deg true )
Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(CDT) 5-day plot - Gust Direction GDR 5-day plot - Gust Speed GST
What do you all think of this? Here is a link to it. it is in between the Yucatan and Cuba.
Link
1) These TV news mets work for producers who want local viewer ratings. When you are a TV station in Miami, saying the consensus is moving 'west' doesn't get viewers.
2) Because it's a TV production, their 'show' is using data that is already old. Obviously, he's referring to earlier runs.
Nobody is wishcasting. This storm has potential to be a formidable tropical cyclone that the entire Gulf Coast needs to watch.
If you live pretty much anywhere around the coastal region of the Gulf of Mexico, you will find that you will tend to feel like that.
That was one big reason why a longtime friend of mine moved to Montana years ago, wanting to get away from always feeling stalked by hurricanes. Now he feels stalked by wildfires and horrendous river floods (he lives right on the Musselshell
river).
The moral of that story is that there is pretty much no place to run to and no place to hide. Wherever you live you must choose your poison and learn to deal with it somehow.
That is absolutely not true. The likelihood of that happening is low, sure, but this is the Gulf of Mexico. If you have any history of storms in the Gulf you will know that it is completely feasible to have a TS into a Cat 2 in a day or 2.
People forget Alex had mid cat 3 pressure in June.
They forget Audrey was a June cat 4 from apparently some pop-up thunderstorms or something...well, a wave came off of the Yucatan, but there's no record of it being in the Caribbean, at least not mentioned in any encyclopedias or anything.
I'm not saying this would be a cat 3 or 4, but it's just a silly notion that strong storms don't happen in June, when in fact one of the strongest and deadliest land falling storms in the modern record was a June storm.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Good to see some of the Regulars back on here :o)
Taco :o)
It's going to be a Cat 5!
XX/INV/96L
MARK
22.11N/86.68W
Well this is an invest... and this does pose a threat to the US. Models are now on a more NW Gulf consensous, because it will get caught under the ridging. I would be a bit nervous if a storm posed a threat to my area. Oh wait, I was that way through Irene. Don't assure people everything's ok, but at the same time you don't want to overhype the situation.
Welcome to Wunderground btw.
I'm on galveston bay... That's exactly what I'll do.. Wait a few days and see how it shapes up.
Agree, I lived in the midwest and south east for a while an was stalked by Tornados then lived in Germany and was haunted by blizzards and ice storms... You roll the dice with mother nature no matter where you go. The best we can do is prepare and be mindful of the situation and do the best we can to get through.
Nobody was saying that.
We're just correcting a fallacy, that's all.
I think Audrey is still by far the strongest June Gulf Storm by wind speed, but Alex threatened the pressure record.
It looks like the circulation is now over the Yucatan? No?
Yeah. The low acts like it wants to move under the area of deep convection in the Yucatan Channel.
So Texas is considered the Northwest gulf coast? Just trying to understand. Thanks
The ENSO is still in the Neutral phase and should stay there through July and into Early August.
The Forecasters definately Ginxed themselves this season. The most storms we could see is prob 17. The least I would say is 11 storms
15Z SREF 500 mb
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve Loop
..click image for loop.
link to animations.
Deep convection starting near CoC for the first time
Looks like the convection is beating the dry air and shear back finally. That outflow that has formed may be enough and getting better stacked now...
Yes that is correct.
Doesn't it look like more banding is occurring over northern FL? I was watching storms on the radar north of me forming and going out in the Gulf a little earlier. Maybe just stretching her muscle :)
Probably due to trends at the moment. They have plenty of time to change things further west if the models continue to trend that way, especially with the previously more eastward consensus that the models could possibly return to.
You can see the colder SST'S in the eastern pacific left by hurricane Carlotta...
correct.
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