Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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03L (Chris)
Operational
1.8550
Atlantic Total
4.095
Yeah. NAM agrees with CMC on track, but not necessarily intensity. Then again, NAM doesn't go as many days out either, and leaves the track open in the Gulf.
That really implies TD or very near TD characteristics as early as 7p.m. tonight...so...
NEXSAT GOM Viz Loop dee Loop
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
I don't think Vince in 2005 was a hurricane that far north in latitude... really surprised! Shows you how unpredictable tropical systems can be.
The real worry will be that N. plants turn to be the target of terror....
touche
Hey aquak9. It has been far too long since we chatted. We survived Beryl up here uh?
Really need to know what's going on with the Mexico low to know whether it's going to be in position to either block the storm, or else if it drifts to much west or south it may actually pull the disturbance in.
So most important unknowns:
1) position and strength of the Mexico low.
2) Trough - needs balloons if development happens.
3) real formation of the dominant CoC (needs flight soon).
and still on the decreasing trend.
ABNT20 KNHC 211136
YUCATAN & QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hurricane Chris, Caribbean disturbance soon to be 96L - 6/21/12
Tell 'em I don't want to see them on Madeira Beach!! :)
Well alrighty then bring 'em on!
Still awaiting the low and a low that can persist, that hasn't happened yet. They need a viable center point to enter in to the models.
Nobody thought that big upper air low down in NE MX/S TX was gonna form. A small weak upper low/trough trans-versed the northern gulf coast and pushed into TX bringing rain chances and then was expected to fizzle out and die and the ridge taking over this weekend, instead a new upper air low transformed down in MX/S TX. Might just be the fly in the ointment when all said and done.
The Surface overall circulation encompasses the whole Eastern GOM
The Invest to come has some big ol Hips to contend with.
It continues to be the fastest model in terms of landfall, which doesn't seem realistic given the steering currents should be weak for several days.
I think the AOI in GOM is showing signs of organization and could well be a TS by tomorrow.Also watch the area of convection coming off the Panama/Colombian border as the "possible" next AOI.
I too think the NWS rainfall forecast estimates for Florida are way overdone.
This extremely broad, monsoonal mess will take time to get going and by the time it does, the wind patterns will probably shift enough to favor a Western GOM hit, probably in South Texas.
That is little more than a hunch at this point but probably not a bad one.
GFS continues to be adamant that the trough will somehow be strong enough to rip apart the system in the Gulf. That's a November or December style trough in June, IMO the ECMWF is more realistic with it.
System isn't stacked very well just yet, and the LLC is pretty elongated.
NHC wants to see it stacked with convection for 6 hours, or else just obvious wicked wind speed with a closed LLC before they are going to treat it too seriously. It can be asymmetrical if wind speed and closed low are present and they'll classify it, but right now it's just none of the above, just a very broad low.
It's going to take a while for something this big to get stacked, and it needs to get a shield against the shear too. The upper level high isn't really well developed yet, nor in an optimum position right now, and I figure it would need to be a degree or two farther north to really help development.
Some people thought our nowcast was valid four days ago and fed it into the local 10day. Then someone said pull that, that's not realistic, we have a ridge coming.
And I think that low at the border more jumped over MX than formed, now that I look at it.
NC is supposed to be below temps with the trough coming in..our local NWS called it a Feb type event..
IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PATTERN MORE COMMONLY OBSERVED IN FEBRUARY
THAN JUNE...AN ANOMALOUS...ALMOST ARCTIC-LIKE...POLAR VORTEX LOADS
UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY OF CANADA AND DROPS NEARLY DUE
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FORCES FULL LATITUDE
EAST-COAST TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND DRIVES A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
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