Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
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There's your rain. Looks to cross the entire state. Which is good if it's not a major concern for the people on the coast.
Local stations will still be calling for sunny hot and dry, nobody knows what we know
I just got "thwacked"
Extremely Over Due: EOD
South-Middle Texas () {Invest 96L?)
North Florida/ South Georgia (X [Beryl] )
EOD South Florida/ Keys ()
EOD Tampa/Panhandle ()
EOD Alabama/Missisipi ()
East Louisiana ()
West Louisana/ East Texas ()
EOD South Carolina ()
EOD North Carolina ()
Have a bad feeling about August.
Especially with the HWRF's upgrade.
Wow, I looked at that 3 hrs ago, the ULAC got up there in quick fashion.
I've been tempted to jump on track changes with the models before. I've watch enough of these now to know that:
1. until you actually have a system to track models are generally all over the place.
2. If you don't have model consensus, there's something the models are having a hard time figuring out, so it's best not to jump on any one track change, especially if the direction is changing from run to run. (Once they come into agreement and stay there for a few runs, it's generally an indicator that they have sorted out the dynamics in the atmosphere)
3. And even then, once a track is nailed down there's nothing to stop unforeseen track influences. (i.e.- trough digging deeper than expected, a stronger ridge, a dramatic increase or decrease in shear.) All of which can make at least minor changes in track, sometimes quite a bit of a difference in track.
Having said all that, not saying you can't take a track you like and put an opinion out on it. But to say "this is or isn't going one way or the other" before a system has even formed is kinda pointless.
tghats a shame too
Similar to the EURO
It seems as if we could end up with TS/Hurricane Debby before the month is over...
A strong storm of tropical nature hitting East Texas would cause a lot of damage from falling trees this year. There are large amounts of dead and weakened trees from the insane drought we had. We're actually back to normal on rain fall amount and the ground is saturated from the large number of small showers we've received recently so large scale flooding could be a concern with a slow wet storm.
Uh why dont you wait until all the advanced models finsh running.
It has to get a renumber before that happens
Amazing how things can change so quickly. This morning it looked like Florida and now Texas. 96L is already at 89 West. Being that far West I would have to agree on a Texas storm.
I ask because if that were to occur (storm from the East), I am sitting on the side of the bay that would have the water pushed/piled up against it. I had never really contemplated the effects of that vs. a more traditional approach until a couple of the more recent models put the notion in my head.....
hey Nigel!
I was talking about that particular Euro run..what are the "advanced models"?
What Location/State gets hits by Hurricane's the most because it sticks out as a thumb?
Florida
The Atlantic Hurricane Capital of the World.
Not recently. Seven years Is a long time in Florida standards.
Thanks Analyst. The photo posting and verification system here is cumbersome.
True but wherever it goes, I hope it's a minimal TS. No one wants to go through the destruction of massive storm surge or wind and rain damage and all the headaches of clean up and dealing with insurance companies, etc. after a major hurricane like Katrina.....
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER COWAN
Big time kudos to Levi... you called it!
The CMC...that would be like 15 to maybe 25 inches of rain in parts of Louisiana if that happened. It's like 4 inches per 12 hours in some frames, and goes on frame after frame, particularly in the Florida Parishes area.
you can definitely see the two lows
Pluses For LEVI!! :D
We dont need that much
CAT 1:
CAT 2:
CAT 3:
CAT 4:
CAT 5:
Hey weather98...how are you doing?
However the mid-upper level spin is over the yucatan penninsula and will need to move north to get stacked under a main center before this thing develops.
There aren't two lows, just one, broad low.
that would be interesting headlines
you forgot miami and mobile...
*
I like them as long as they don't hurt anybody.
Unfortunately people usually get hurt either directly or during cleanup afterwards.
I like the experience of the strong wind, and the rain pelting you in face. I always have to go outside and feel the power of them when they hit.
GFS, yes the Euro has run but it is only one piece of the pie. GFS is as sophisticated and if an essential piece of the FSU superensemble
Thank you...and welcome aboard
tired but good u?
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