Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.
Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.
Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yea, but now other bloggers on here have models slamming them.
It would probably do better than the ecmwf gfs consensus, it has some ensembles on it side.
He just might be some day. :)
The last time we had a Yucatan Hurricane, early in the season, come into Texas... We had a MONSTER come into the Texas coast 2 months later. Hopefully this differs from that...
Maybe you'll get what's coming if all pans out
On your blog? Yes, they are.
yeah, still a lot of uncertanity but let me find out the CMC beat the Euro though..
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120621 1800 120622 0600 120622 1800 120623 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 89.0W 21.9N 89.4W 22.3N 89.6W 22.4N 89.9W
BAMD 21.7N 89.0W 22.0N 88.9W 22.2N 89.0W 22.8N 88.8W
BAMM 21.7N 89.0W 21.9N 89.0W 22.1N 89.2W 22.4N 89.2W
LBAR 21.7N 89.0W 22.4N 89.0W 23.2N 89.3W 24.2N 89.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120623 1800 120624 1800 120625 1800 120626 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 90.1W 23.3N 89.9W 22.6N 89.9W 22.2N 90.7W
BAMD 23.6N 88.7W 24.8N 88.7W 25.1N 89.3W 25.1N 89.7W
BAMM 23.1N 89.2W 23.7N 88.9W 23.4N 88.8W 23.4N 89.7W
LBAR 25.5N 89.9W 27.1N 89.8W 27.1N 90.1W 27.5N 90.1W
SHIP 43KTS 58KTS 62KTS 60KTS
DSHP 43KTS 58KTS 62KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 89.0W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 89.9W DIRM12 = 13DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 90.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
No offense to you, but I'm convinced those TCHP graphics are nearly useless.
I've seen a Cat 5 over just 50 TCHP a time or two, and they just don't seem to be a good indicator on the low end. Nearly the whole Gulf is already above 50 anyway.
Sure, a bigger number is obviously more favorable, but I just don't think the "low" TCHP values mean much.
how do they measure that?
There's like 12 people on the Texas coastal region on this blog. Including me.
no... but imma get me some rain... wahooo
And me... Bridge City Texas checking in..
36hrs system? 40mph
dont know if it would fully wrapped up into a ts yet
And, given the unusual southerly position of the jet stream, which has been directing depressions over the UK recently, Chris will probably be paying us a visit
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 36 43 51 58 61 62 61 60
V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 36 43 51 58 61 62 61 60
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 37 44 50 55 58 60
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 1 -3 0 0 6 -1 0 2 1 0
SHEAR DIR 223 234 285 337 54 247 255 224 174 185 181 203 201
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 129 130 132 133 135 136 134 135 136 134
ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 111 111 111 114 114 115 115 113 115 116 114
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13
700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 77 77 72 70 63 61 52 50 46 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 87 89 88 99 105 105 107 105 110 85 78 46 42
200 MB DIV 59 59 48 51 59 52 63 71 49 18 27 9 -5
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 4 1 1 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 38 49 59 73 86 118 193 230 249 219 214 225 239
LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.4 23.1 23.5 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4
LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.1 89.2 89.2 89.2 89.0 88.9 88.6 88.8 89.2 89.7
STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 9 13 17 18 19 18 17 18 21
The strength of the system, strength of the Ridge all play a huge part in determining direction. For days now they have swayed back in forth with the ridge forming or being as strong.
I think the next 24-48 will give us a much clearer picture as to what to expect. Especially with a Recon flight tomorrow.
My two Cents- Please by all means it's close to the Continental US so please do not let guard down. Gulf storms like this are known to do what they are not supposed to.....
no not really..they will be here as the day of doom gets closer..there are a lot of texas bloggers...florida bloggers though outnumbers us all..
:)
Left Over Storm Talk? :P
Believable. It's still going to take a couple of days for 96L to consolidate one area of low pressure. These monsoonal trofs/lows are very tricky and it is difficult to pinpoint where an actual area of low pressure will consolidate as it could happen anywhere along the trof axis. I think the biggest thing to watch is where it consolidates. Right now, it appears to be doing so just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A consolidation farther to the south and west will reduce the chances of 96L/Debby making a Florida landfall (which seems more and more likely by the day). The second scenario is a consolidation farther to the north and east, which would increase the chances of 96L/Debby making landfall in Florida since it would be closer to any tug by a passing trof. The first scenario is looking to be the favored one now, though.
Conditions will become very ripe for development of Debby within the next 48 Hours. Which is why the NHC gave it a 50% chance
Honestly, pretty much the only things I understand up there are the ones I bolded. Lol.
Lets not forget last year model runs..Irene was heading in to west coast Florida one run, then LA the next run, then east coast Florida and then finally NC which it only skirt..but if I lived in the GOM anywhere, I would have my plans in order just the same
548:
Yes.
Notice the weak to moderate banding is starting to penetrate well into the north-central Gulf. This is just as I expected as the entire region is getting moistened up.
It's gonna be big.
we could still have one of those.
after all, it is the gulfs favorite thing to do.
by a lot we oughta poll the numbers of people in a state make a CHART...
sorry for the bad humor
Im not talking about right now. Im talking about in total, that check in on the blog and post and such.
It means that the GFS (in which the SHIPS derives it's environment from) lost the circulation at XX hour.
I only wish that sigh of relief could count for about ten or more years.
Otherwise, eventually our day will come. And we'll have everything (screaming winds, torrential rains, surging storm tides, flying palm trees, sailing pool enclosures, etc, etc.) I fear...
INV/XX/96L
MARK
22.11N/86.68W
120hrs BAMD 25.1N 89.7W
120hrs BAMM 23.4N 89.7W
120hrs LBAR 27.5N 90.1W
There's your rain. Looks to cross the entire state. Which is good if it's not a major concern for the people on the coast.
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