Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fukushima/Tepco best have a good plan for the # 4 Bldg there.

Carlotta Low Rainbow image

Now let's see how the media reacts to the situation next week....mmmm.

Quoting LargoFl:
I am amazed, I just cannot image..207 mph winds

Imagine a 20 mile wide F5 tornado!!!!

Quoting Patrap:
Carlotta Low Rainbow image

Geeez that sure is juicy!!!!!!!!

Indeed..

Moist BOC and GOM

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUN 2012 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:57:32 N Lon : 127:45:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 925.5mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -4.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.0 degrees

looks to be eroding on the n and nw side

OK ........so F4 tornado............ya know what I meant

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks to be eroding on the n and nw side

So, Are most Hurricane/Typhoons eyes off center or are in center of all the clouds? Does that make sense?.....lol

Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


So, Are most Hurricane/Typhoons eyes off center or are in center of all the clouds? Does that make sense?.....lol

That really depends on conditions. If shear is present. Then they appear to be closer to the edge of the convection because the shear has blown the tops off the convection. If there is dry air, same idea. But "technically" the eye is always in the center of the storm whether it looks that way or not. Generally when conditions are ideal, low shear, moist atmosphere, etc., is when you get that classic symmetrical looking system.

Quoting charlottefl:


That really depends on conditions. If shear is present. Then they appear to be closer to the edge of the convection because the shear has blown the tops off the convection. If there is dry air, same idea. But "technically" the eye is always in the center of the storm whether it looks that way or not. Generally when conditions are ideal, low shear, moist atmosphere, etc., is when you get that classic symmetrical looking system.

Thank You

This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting nigel20:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

At the same time Nigel lol. How are you doing?

Quoting Jedkins01:
This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.

Where ya at?

Quoting Jedkins01:
This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.

So it's not my imagination.... (sigh)

I know we had rain falling in areas around here -- even in parts of the Cape today -- but it didn't rain in my neighborhood.

Any ideas on why we're so dry? It seems to me like the wind has been from every direction except the so-called classic Bermuda High - southeasterly winds. I know the East Coast of Florida has received good rains in the last few weeks.

Quoting allancalderini:
At the same time Nigel lol. How are you doing?

Hey allan...I'm good
How are you?

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Link??

The heat will be on for my area next week.Possible highs in the upper 90's with high humidity.Its going to be really nasty.Blah.Highs will already be in the mid 70's to lower 80's in the morning.

Quoting nigel20:

Hey allan...I'm good
How are you?

I am good.I was just reading that Carlotta killed two sisters age 7 and 13 so sad.

I think all the tx coast and la coast too!!! Not just the upper tx coast

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Models are HORRIBLE at predicting the strength of storms. Especially when they haven't even formed yet.

The fact that they are all showing development should be of concern for everyone on the Gulf Coast. Nobody should look at the models and see a 1002 low and assume it will be a tropical wave. This is the Gulf of Mexico we are talking about here!!

You are so right! The H-center is still not very good predicting strenght.

Quoting allancalderini:
I am good.I was just reading that Carlotta killed two sisters age 7 and 13 so sad.

Yes, that's extremely sad...

Quoting washingtonian115:
The heat will be on for my area next week.Possible highs in the upper 90's with high humidity.Its going to be really nasty.Blah.Highs will already be in the mid 70's to lower 80's in the morning.

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's

Quoting nigel20:

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's

Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Prolonged hot and humid event Tuesday to Thursday

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A sultry airmass is set to arrive on Monday over southwestern
Ontario and make its way across the rest of Southern Ontario through
the week. Many communities across Southwestern Ontario east to the
greater Toronto area will experience a prolonged episode of high
Heat and humidity with day time highs soaring into the low thirties
with humidex values near 40 or higher. Night time temperatures
Will also remain very warm and are not expected to drop below 20
degrees in many areas.

This will make for very uncomfortable conditions and moderate to
High readings in the air quality health index. It is advised to stay
in an air conditioned place or seek shade when possible, drink lots
of water and limit physical outdoor activity.

The main heat event is expected to take place from Tuesday to
Thursday. As the hot air mass moves further east the statement will
be extended and subsequent humidex advisories may be issued.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Prolonged hot and humid event Tuesday to Thursday

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A sultry airmass is set to arrive on Monday over southwestern
Ontario and make its way across the rest of Southern Ontario through
the week. Many communities across Southwestern Ontario east to the
greater Toronto area will experience a prolonged episode of high
Heat and humidity with day time highs soaring into the low thirties
with humidex values near 40 or higher. Night time temperatures
Will also remain very warm and are not expected to drop below 20
degrees in many areas.

This will make for very uncomfortable conditions and moderate to
High readings in the air quality health index. It is advised to stay
in an air conditioned place or seek shade when possible, drink lots
of water and limit physical outdoor activity.

The main heat event is expected to take place from Tuesday to
Thursday. As the hot air mass moves further east the statement will
be extended and subsequent humidex advisories may be issued.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

Thanks for the info!

Quoting Stormchaser121:
Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...

Too early for that

Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the info!

great way to usher in the first day of summer on wed with 110 degree humidex values

Quoting RitaEvac:


Too early for that

Its never too early

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Its never too early

When I see a spin and massive amounts of convection, then I'll be ready, and moving towards our general direction

Btw im on vacation now...im in Sherman tx

Quoting nigel20:

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's

Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.

Kemah, TX. Boardwalk, Galveston Bay



From San Luis Hotel, Galveston, TX



Moody Gardens, Galveston, TX,

Quoting Stormchaser121:
Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...

That would be Terrible News the Drought stricken areas of South Central Texas, anything East of us brings in Very Hot and Dry air, no rain here since early to middle of May. MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN
TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES
IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be Terrible News the Drought stricken areas of South Central Texas, anything East of us brings in Very Hot and Dry air, no rain here since early to middle of May. MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN
TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES
IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW.

Bottom line is don't listen to anyone, models, or forecasts, let the event unfold itself and you'll get an idea of what's gonna happen

Quoting washingtonian115:
Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.

We quite happily work all day on building sites in up to 40+/C well over 100.F
There is normally about 10% humidity sometimes a bit more.
If the the humidity gets above 50% we dont even go to work. Basically have you ever tried laying bricks with a waterfall of sweat passing across your eyes.
Heat isnt a problem, and we've worked in up to 50/C ,( 52/C was the highest.)and that's shade temps, we dont normally get much shade. Humidity is the killer. Ask anybody who ever tried to work physically in Auckland NZ, in summer!
Wash, do you have a catalogue of your past avatars?

Quoting washingtonian115:
Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.

That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

FWIW, I love high humidity. In fact, that's one of the reasons I live in Southwest Florida, and why I enjoy vacationing in tropical locations (Panama, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc.). Dry weather depresses me. To each his own, I guess... ;-)

Quoting RitaEvac:


Bottom line is don't listen to anyone, models, or forecasts, let the event unfold itself and you'll get an idea of what's gonna happen

I am almost hoping something doesnt form and move East of me, drives my temps up well over 100 and brings in very dry air. I know better than to listen too much to long range models and forecasts but sometimes it is fun to look at. I watch those models all the time and they change daily.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Now let's see how the media reacts to the situation next week....mmmm.

i love watching how the media reacts...what are we talking about? :)

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am almost hoping something doesnt form and move East of me, drives my temps up well over 100 and brings in very dry air. I know better than to listen too much to long range models and forecasts but sometimes it is fun to look at. I watch those models all the time and they change daily.

they change every 6 hrs

Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.

Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

FWIW, I love high humidity. In fact, that's one of the reasons I live in Southwest Florida, and why I enjoy vacationing in tropical locations (Panama, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc.). Dry weather depresses me. To each his own, I guess... ;-)

Same here...