Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico
Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.
Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Models are HORRIBLE at predicting the strength of storms. Especially when they haven't even formed yet.
The fact that they are all showing development should be of concern for everyone on the Gulf Coast. Nobody should look at the models and see a 1002 low and assume it will be a tropical wave. This is the Gulf of Mexico we are talking about here!!
You're right..the frames were still loading when I pulled it..here is the correct 240 hour frame
Looks Subtropical
see 18z NAM model
Link
I agree that this will be a strong one
Post #238
Tropical Wave
I noticed that this morning.
Looks like its holdin on.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TYPHOON GUCHOL (T1204)
6:00 AM JST June 17 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Guchol (935 hPa) located at 16.7N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5
Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.8N 127.0E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon) - South of Okinawa
45 HRS: 27.1N 129.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Coastal waters of Okinawa
69 HRS: 32.6N 135.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Japan
NOAA Surface Analysis Map..tropical wave in the BOC
I believe this will go further north than that...
Link
At 30N 70W?
:) just beat me to it :)
The thing I am noticing is that front...leads me to believe even more northward by day 8.
Yea buddy!
Dats wut I'm talkin bout!
Taz has a JFV issue of some sort...
18z Nogaps currently running-120 Hours
no commets
000
FLUS44 KTSA 162200
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-170 630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AFTER 10 PM FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
KEEP STORMS FROM BEING LONG LIVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS
OVER KANSAS AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY CONTAIN AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT
TRACK...IT COULD SWEEP ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE IF
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY AND COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
15 minutes old
northern hemisphere wv anim
I'm going with the 12Z on this one...
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Link
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