Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i can see the blog going crazy already:

12zGFS Ensemble Means do not agree with that scenario tho.

Cuz NCHurricane2009 new Tropical Update deserves more time-in-view than at a page bottom.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(With a THANKS to Tazmanian for catching what I wouldn't have)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionCarlotta for 16June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from NWest at 15.9mph(25.7km/h) to NWest at 8.7mph(14km/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 30knots(35mph)56km/h to 25knots(29mph)46km/h
And its minimum pressure had increased from 1000millibars to 1005millibars

For those who like to visually track TD.Carlotta's path...
ZIH is Zihuantanejo : MMCH is Chilpancingo,Guerrero :: ACA is Acapulco :: PNO is Pinotepa

Carlotta was a 90knot Cat.2 hurricane near Pochutla(PUH), still a Cat.1 near Pinotepa,
Became a TropicalDepression by the time it reach northeast of Acapulco,
And now I'm wondering how long it can remain a TD past Chilpancingo.
(The PXM dot is just the airport location, not a part of Carlotta's track)

Copy&paste lzc, zih, aca, mmch, pno, pxm, puh, 15.6n96.7w-16.4n97.9w, 16.4n97.9w-17.3n99.0w, 17.3n99.0w-17.8n99.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

How do you post pics on hea?

Here is this afternoon discussion regarding development in BOC made by the Corpus Christi NWS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF IS PROGD TO MOVE W TO SW THROUGH THE EXTENDED BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AS
THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ON MON AND 20-40
PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN FCSTG EITHER A SFC TROF/OPEN WAVE OR A CLOSED LOW DVLPG IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT MOVES N TO NE INITIALLY BY MID WEEK. THEN
THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM
AS A BROAD LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH BRINGS MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP TO S TX. IF THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME A CLOSED LOW...THE
DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE IF S TX SEES ABUNDANT RAINFALL OR NO
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS THE REASONING FOR LEAVING POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH FINE TUNING EXPECTED AS TIME
PROGRESSES. AS FOR WINDS...REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DVLPS INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OR JUST REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...AM EXPECTING A NE
DIRECTION TO DVLP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DID NOT GO AS STRONG
AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT DID INCREASE SEAS BY ONE
TO TWO FEET DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.

click the image box above the text editor and paste in the image URL

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
How do you post pics on hea?

Ekman transport looks to be coming for TX next week as easterly flow develops, and if a system develops will be even more so.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
How do you post pics on hea?

Click on the "Image" button...then copy & paste the web address of the image into the pop-up and hit OK on the pop-up.

One thing I'd like to know is if there is any way to post images from your hard drive into your blog post. When I create my posts...I have to upload my weather charts into the Wunderphotos section...and then link the wunderphotos into my blog (which is akward b/c my weather charts have nothing to do with the beauty of the outdoors)....

use photobucket or another image hosting service. use the Direct Link HTML and then post in the Blog comment box, via the image prompt.

Quoting Patrap:
use photobucket or another image hosting service. use the Direct Link HTML and then post in the Blog comment box, via the image prompt.

Is photobucket free?

yes

WP052012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) GUCHOL


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting Patrap:
WP052012 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) GUCHOL


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

It's amazing how something that beautiful can be that dangerous...similar to some of the ladies

154 Doppler22: Not that Ike or Igor weren't big enough haha

Irene was way oversized in my reckoning during its landfalls last year.
A huge and/or powerful TropicalCyclone out in the ocean is AWESOME.
When an awesome TC starts looking like it'll hit land that way, I just gotta wince.

Quoting Cantu5977:


12zGFS Ensemble Means do not agree with that scenario tho.

They often don't.

..Im gonna pop a Fresca and a snickers bar as the tropics are heating up..

Quoting Gearsts:

If you look closely,there is a weak rotation north of Panama.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If you look closely,there is a weak rotation north of Panama.

Monsoonal low, there all the time, won't develop...

Link
My blog for today

174 HadesGodWyvern:: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06...In South China Sea...(998 hPa) located at 19.3N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Probably getting the stuffing knocked out of it by Guchol('s telecommunication).

Pat,when you see different NWS offices discussing about something that may develop,it means as you said "The Tropics are heating up."

Here is this afternoon's discussion by the Houston/Galveston NWS.

LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL
ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE
AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE
GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED
THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM
THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A
WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH
PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK.

Guchol is still at 130kts as of the new JTWC advisory... Foracast to weaken slightly in the next 12 hours then restrengthen slightly before falling apart as it heads into Tokyo.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Pat,when you see different NWS offices discussing about something that may develop,it means as you said "The Tropics are heating up."

Here is this afternoon's discussion by the Houston/Galveston NWS.

LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL
ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE
AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE
GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED
THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM
THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A
WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH
PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK.

indeed,

NOLA NWS is on it as well.

Long term...


The strong middle to upper level ridge will be strongest during the
middle-week time frame...with deep layer subsidence and dry air aloft
in place. This will effectively limit any convection from
developing for Wednesday and Thursday...and have a dry forecast in
place for the entire forecast area. The strong ridge will also
bring warmer temperatures to the region...with highs climbing into
the lower to middle 90s.


Heading into the latter third of the forecast...there continues to
be a great deal of uncertainty on the exact evolution of a
possible tropical feature over the western Gulf of Mexico. The GFS
is more aggressive in the development of this feature than the
Euro. Have decided to go with a blend of the model solutions once
again. Overall...went about 70 percent GFS and 30 percent Euro.
This brings moisture back into the area for next weekend. With
this in mind...expect a fairly vigorous tropical wave to eject
out of the western Caribbean and merge with the remnant activity
associated with Hurricane Carlotta in the eastern Pacific on
Wednesday. As this merger occurs...a weak low will develop over
the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This low will continue to slowly
drift to the north and west on Thursday...with moisture surging
into the central Gulf of Mexico. However...the strong riding in
place across the south will limit the spread of convection into
the coastal waters.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If you look closely,there is a weak rotation north of Panama.

You are right...rotation caused by split upper flow (which is causing pressure drops at the surface)...quote from my latest blog post:

"Ahead of this tropical wave...t-storms have flared up in the Colombia-Panama area...triggered by split upper flow (between easterlies SE of the W Caribbean upper ridge of paragraph P8...and westerlies SW of the paragraph P9 upper trough). Tonight into tomorrow...this tropical wave will move into this split upper flow and t-storms...and it will be interesting to see if a tropical disturbance gets going as the tropical wave's surface convergence further enhances the agitated weather."

What's happening at 30N 70W?

we got lots to work with somethings coming

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Pat,when you see different NWS offices discussing about something that may develop,it means as you said "The Tropics are heating up."

Here is this afternoon's discussion by the Houston/Galveston NWS.

LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL
ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE
AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE
GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED
THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM
THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A
WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH
PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK.

Hey Tropics...what's the weather like today?

...................................its good to see the rains again in texas

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Monsoonal low, there all the time, won't develop...

I think this setup is a bit different than the usual monsoonal low.

Quoting Patrap:
..Im gonna pop a Fresca and a snickers bar as the tropics are heating up..

bubbling bubbling bubbling

12Z GFS ensemble members

Afternoon runs a bit more promising for development in the Gulf. CMC and GFS saying upper Texas Coast/Louisiana while Euro still saying Central Mexico Coast. BIG difference. Note as well though CMC/GFS also show a stronger system than Euro which I am sure accounts for some of the diffrence in track. Taking the middle of the two tracks says anywhere from Middle Texas Coast to Northern Mexico landfall...which has been my thinking of any developed system.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got lots to work with somethings coming

I remember last year whe we had 4 Invests lined up.
One became Franklin
One became Gert
One was absorbed by Gert.
One eventually became Harvey

I found the catalyst for the possible development...13.0N;80.0W

Link

Been reading for 5 years, finally took the leap. I learn so much from everyone.

Quoting quasistationary:
I found the catalyst for the possible development...13.0N;80.0W

Link

I think if we get Chris, that is the area where it will originate, just my take though.

even though the Euro isnt developing a system as strong as the other models, the fact that the ensembles develops a low in the BOC as well as the operational greatly increases the chances of development. The Gulf areas need to prepare if they havent already.

12Z Euro Ensembles

Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
Been reading for 5 years, finally took the leap. I learn so much from everyone.

Welcome!
Always nice to see a new blogger!

Quoting Stormchaser121:

12Z GFS ensemble members

That is the Operational Run.

Quoting stormpetrol:


I think if we get Chris, that is the area where it will originate, just my take though.

Looks like it could work up to the BOC
Link

Quoting RitaEvac:


Not over a 1002mb low

no that would be as low as 990 mb, remember beryl showed at 998-1006 on the models.

this could still be a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane, not considering the intensification the models dont pick up on

Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
Been reading for 5 years, finally took the leap. I learn so much from everyone.

That's good to know....hopefully you'll be posting a lot more, as of today..

Quoting stormpetrol:

Note the Northern GOM, the SW Car, and the SE Car.

Quoting ncstorm:
even though the Euro isnt developing a system as strong as the other models, the fact that the ensembles develops a low in the BOC as well as the operational greatly increases the chances of development. The Gulf areas need to prepare if they havent already.

12Z Euro Ensembles

That's the 0Z run, 12Z not come out yet

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no that would be 990 mb, remember beryl showed at 998-1006 on the models

Models are HORRIBLE at predicting the strength of storms. Especially when they haven't even formed yet.

The fact that they are all showing development should be of concern for everyone on the Gulf Coast. Nobody should look at the models and see a 1002 low and assume it will be a tropical wave. This is the Gulf of Mexico we are talking about here!!