Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Although I have been advocating the potential for development, we should still be careful using the GFS for support when it is going completely wacko on the MJO pulse:

That said, we still have 2-3 days before the MJO stops racing like a mad horse and slows up in phase 1 for a while, at which point the models will probably see things better. The pattern is too progressive for them right now.

Quoting washingtonian115:
When is that tropical wave off of the coast of Africa suppose to be in the caribbean?.

normally 10day to 2 full weeks whyyou ask?

On the previous blog I posted a graph of wind gusts at Puerto Angel, near Hurricane Carlotta's landfall.
Some highlights from this station:

Their lowest pressure was 984.6mb (29.07inHg), highest winds were 136.6km/h (84.9mph) gusting to 187km/h (116mph), and they've received 285.4mm (11.24") of rain.

Quoting washingtonian115:
When is that tropical wave off of the coast of Africa suppose to be in the caribbean?.

With 40 to 50 kts of shear in front of it there won't be much, if anything, left of it by the time it gets there... But as others have said, generally 10-14 days.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

normally 10day to 2 full weeks whyyou ask?

If the MJO is around by then could it aid in development was the question.

MAweatherboy1 I don't think it will develop off of Africa.

GOM Sea Height Anomalies

For not showing any kind of development, the ECMWF sure has a nice 200mb anticyclone over the western gulf in a week's time:

It reminds me when that big anticyclone was over the GOM when Katrina was in the gulf....ahhh not saying that won't happen with this....

Guchol's eye is way to the north of most of the system

Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's maybe the reason why the ECMWF is so adamant on not developing this system, it has the system being forced westward by a ridge overhead and the trough not effecting it.

Quoting washingtonian115:
If the system is stronger it gets pulled to the north by the trof.If its weaker like some of the models are showing then it stays in the BOC and hits northern Mexico...My observation as of right now.

Do you think it will be a strong system?

Quoting kipperedherring:
I think GTcooliebai speaks for all of us with this.

No not really, I don't expect everyone to agree with this. Sometimes the GFS will get the evolving pattern right in terms of amplification of troughs and strengths of highs ,but will spit out ghost storms only to drop it in the next run. Sometimes the ECMWF will show development while the GFS will show no development. And while the HWRF is the closest we have to being accurate with the intensity of storms, it sometimes blows up storms and turns them into Major Hurricanes.

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Do you think it will be a strong system?

Strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Someone keep a sharp eye on those BOC pressures next 72.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
No not really, I don't expect everyone to agree with this. Sometimes the GFS will get the evolving pattern right in terms of amplification of troughs and strengths of highs ,but will spit out ghost storms only to drop it in the next run. Sometimes the ECMWF will show development while the GFS will show no development. And while the HWRF is the closest we have to being accurate with the intensity of storms, it sometimes blow up storms and turn them into Major Hurricanes.

Remember that time it showed Fiona as a cat 5 hitting S.C and the GFS going along with it?.Good times...good times....

Quoting washingtonian115:
Strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

In that case it will likely be pulled to the north by the trough

Quoting Levi32:
Although I have been advocating the potential for development, we should still be careful using the GFS for support when it is going completely wacko on the MJO pulse:

That said, we still have 2-3 days before the MJO stops racing like a mad horse and slows up in phase 1 for a while, at which point the models will probably see things better. The pattern is too progressive for them right now.

So,thats saying the MJO gonna be in our neck of the woods for a while?

Quoting washingtonian115:
It reminds me when that big anticyclone was over the GOM when Katrina was in the gulf....ahhh not saying that won't happen with this....

Please don't haha

Quoting GTcooliebai:
No not really, I don't expect everyone to agree with this. Sometimes the GFS will get the evolving pattern right in terms of amplification of troughs and strengths of highs ,but will spit out ghost storms only to drop it in the next run. Sometimes the ECMWF will show development while the GFS will show no development. And while the HWRF is the closest we have to being accurate with the intensity of storms, it sometimes blows up storms and turns them into Major Hurricanes.

HWRF was blowing Irene up into a Cat 5 and sending it into SC.

The GFS is also still holding to development in that region. Wind Shear should be lessening in that 6-8 day time frame, and as Levi pointed out, a good anti-cyclone should be over the area. That, and the abundant moisture at that time should be something to watch anyway.

Quoting sunlinepr:

I am wanting to say tropical wave but via 12Z surface map show nothing its just the monsoon trough

A SECONDARY OUTER CONVECTIVE HALF-RING SEEMS TO BE FORMING.
THIS OUTER RING COULD CLOSE OFF AND SUFFOCATE THE INNER CORE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION BUT ALSO INCREASE THE
RADIUS OF MAX WINDS FOR SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL

Quoting Grothar:
The GFS is also still holding to development in that region. Wind Shear should be lessening in that 6-8 day time frame, and as Levi pointed out, a good anti-cyclone should be over the area. That, and the abundant moisture at that time should be something to watch anyway.

Mmmm.Is Chris gonna live up to his reputation/legacy?.

looks like there is a low trying too fourm in the bay of campeche

If anything does develop, it looks like it will stay around in the same place for awhile. Not much to move it for a few days. If anything, it would probably begin to move North and perhaps a little NNE.

Quoting WeatherMet:




But yet again, you are from New England, so the tropics are certainly outside of your jurisdiction of expertise, I'd say!

One word:
Levi.

Or the thousands, no millions of pple living in tropical basins who don't have a clue what a Twave even is, though it influences their wx on a regular basis.

Somehow, I think u come out of this looking like the ignorant one.... and I think I know a sign for u... [-]

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
So,thats saying the MJO gonna be in our neck of the woods for a while?

It will be, but the GFS currently has it becoming unrealistically amplified. Then again, the UKMET is also bombing it in the same way. Still, the ECMWF MJO projection seems more realistic, which is still a significant pulse:

12Z GFS

Quoting BahaHurican:
One word:
Levi.

Or the thousands, no millions of pple living in tropical basins who don't have a clue what a Twave even is, though it influences their wx on a regular basis.

Somehow, I think u come out of this looking like the ignorant one.... and I think I know a sign for u... [-]

But you do have to admit though he did give a good statement on tropical waves moving across the Atlantic and keeping their structure which is true.

If that's the case then maybe we could squeeze out one more storm out of this MJO pulse

Quoting Patrap:
Someone keep a sharp eye on those BOC pressures next 72.

I'm spending enough time watching my own, thank you.

Then moves NNE a little

haha wow Guchol looks dangerous.... Possibly a Cat 5 Typhoon..... hey can somebody refresh my memory... When was the last Cat 5 in the Atlantic... Wasn't it in 2007?

Quoting washingtonian115:
But you do have to admit though he did give a good statement on tropical waves moving across the Atlantic and keeping their structure which is true.

Could easily have done the exact same thing without the ad hominem attack. It's hard to respect or listen to someone's information, no matter how good it is, when they're calling u an idiot and denigrating ur origens at the same time. We don't need that on here.

Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like there is a low trying too fourm in the bay of campeche

hmm don't know about that but what I do know is that there is one currently forming in the SW Caribbean

Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm.Is Chris gonna live up to his reputation/legacy?.

I hope not.

Hey everyone, with the strong MJO pulse, it appears the chances of getting Chris are pretty high, but what about a 4th storm? Is it possible?

Quoting Doppler22:
haha wow Guchol looks dangerous.... Possibly a Cat 5 Typhoon..... hey can somebody refresh my memory... When was the last Cat 5 in the Atlantic... Wasn't it in 2007?

Hey, Dopp... wasn't it Felix?

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm don't know about that but what I do know is that there is one currently forming in the SW Caribbean

ok

Quoting Levi32:


It will be, but the GFS currently has it becoming unrealistically amplified. Then again, the UKMET is also bombing it in the same way. Still, the ECMWF MJO projection seems more realistic, which is still a significant pulse:

But you have to admit, Levi, the GFS uses nicer colors in their maps.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Dopp... wasn't it Felix?

yes it was

Quoting Doppler22:
haha wow Guchol looks dangerous.... Possibly a Cat 5 Typhoon..... hey can somebody refresh my memory... When was the last Cat 5 in the Atlantic... Wasn't it in 2007?

Hurricane Felix would have been the last Category 5 in the Atlantic, so we haven't seen one in 5 years.

Quoting Grothar:


I hope not.

Grothar Chris has a reputation as a weak storm XD.So we hope it does live up to its reputation.

I still believe Igor was wrong..uhh lets get on to the subject.

Speaking of maps, where has Grothar's globe gone? Haven't seen it in a while....

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hurricane Felix would have been the last Category 5 in the Atlantic, so we haven't seen one in 5 years.

A well deserved break... cat 5s were practically cliche by 2008.... We had, what 6? 7? since 2000?