Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico
Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.
Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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shear is expected to drop to 5-10kt in the SW area and 15-25 in the NW and Central areas still 30-50kt over cuba and bahamas and NE area now this is expected within the next 24-48 hours
Nah, I think it's not a tick over 4.5°
;-)
;-)
Crown weather said the same about a half hour ago.
: )
Comparing equivalent Julian*dates for the hottest SST&Depth26 year to this (leap)year
- - - - - - - - 16June2010 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16June2010 Depth26degreesCelsius
- - - - - - - - 15June2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15June2012 Depth26degreesCelsius
* Julian days are sequentially numbered 1thru365 with the last day being 366 on leap years.
im not too worried about syriza winning.
for your money's sake, i'd better be right.
new gfs coming out too
Gaius Julius Caesar
Julius Caesar.
subtropical?
A low in the BOC by 75hrs.
little faster, so far, may beat the high
Look at the day that map was made though: June 12th. That makes it nearly a week old.
The anti-post?
As we have been talking about for a while now, tropical development is still favored in the western Gulf of Mexico later next week and into next weekend. The monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean will be slowly swelling northward with time into next week, and the fact that Hurricane Carlotta in the eastern Pacific is moving close to the Mexican coastline instead of out to sea illustrates that this is already beginning to occur.
Levi, June 15
I just sat bac and chuckled.
Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CDT sun Jun 17 2012/
Discussion...
overall...a fairly quiet weather regime will be in place for the
forecast area through the week. A weak middle/upper level trough off
the Louisiana coast with a subtle surface reflection will shift
west to Texas by Monday. Drier air from the east will continue to
encroach upon the forecast area. As a result...the best rain
chances will again be confined to the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area today...nearest the weak area of low pressure. As
we move into the work week...weak ridging aloft and a prominent
ridge at the surface will prevail with only small rain chances
expected. Temperatures will warm two or three degree during the
period...but will average close to normal. Rain chances may inch
up a bit toward the end of the work week and into next weekend if
an area of low pressure develops or moves into the southwest Gulf
with a wave moving across the central Gulf bringing increased
moisture northward as the models have indicated for several runs
now. However...the latest trend with the medium range model runs
has been toward a drier solution for the central Gulf Coast region
for the end of the week with ridging remaining in control and the
best moisture remaining to the south and west of the region. 11
MARK
15.55N/73.75W
Sorry, wrong Julian. The Julian date was not named for Julius Caesar.
It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.
Yea, however the upper ridge in the Gulf should meet with the one over Panama with the help of latent heat produce by the moisture and the MJO over the caribbean and the lowering of pressure just check out the vorticity map in the sw caribbean. Looks like a low could spin up and slip underneath those tstorms in the central caribbean.
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.
So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?
Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Julian calendar is a reform of the Roman calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 BC (708 AUC). It took effect the following year, 45 BC (709 AUC), and continued to be used as the civil calendar in some countries into the 20th century.
The calendar has a regular year of 365 days divided into 12 months, as listed in Table of months. A leap day is added to February every four years.
The Julian year is, therefore, on average 365.25 days long.
Grothar would know, he turned 13 when it happened.. ;)
They look fine to me. I just CTRL + and I can read them.
MARK
33.11N/65.71W
He/she was wrong. There is a difference between the Julian Calendar and the Julian date.
The Julian date was invented by Julius Scaliger, and actually named it after his father.
Twit!
That is not the same as the Julian date, that is the Julian Calendar. Not the same thing.
The number of days since noon on January 1, -4712, i.e., January 1, 4713 BC (Seidelmann 1992). It was proposed by J. J. Scaliger in 1583, so the name for this system derived from Julius Scaliger, not Julius Caesar. Scaliger defined Day One was as a day when three calendrical cycles converged. The first cycle was the 28 year period over which the Julian calendar repeats days of the week (the so-called solar number). After 28 years, all the dates fall on the same days of the week, so one need only buy 28 calendars. (Note that since the Gregorian calendar was adopted the calendar now takes 400 years to repeat.) The second was the 19 year golden number cycle over which phases of the moon almost land on the same dates of the year. The third cycle was the 15 year ancient Roman tax cycle of Emperor Constantine (the so-called indiction). Scaliger picked January 1, 4713 BC on the Julian calendar as Day One. The three cycles coincide every 7980 years (Tøndering).
It is possible something could develop in both areas. A number of low pressure areas are expected to form in both areas. Don't lose hope.
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