Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

That 10% extra-tropical feature is basically also helping cause training showers across Hispanola. They may have some severe flooding in Haiti over the next few days..... Could be worse than a fast moving tropical storm for those poor folks.

Quoting BahaHurican:
How common is this type of flooding there, pcola? I don't remember hearing a whole lot about this in the past.

I also know that former swamplands [or land along coastal waterways] are prone to flooding in wet wx patterns, and often when housing was built in these areas in the past there wasn't sufficient preparation for this kind of situation. I've seen similar impacts here in Nassau.

Yes there are greedy contractors that develop in hazardous flood areas and sell those tracts to the people who don't do their homework...
And yes flooding has occured like this(1934 is one example)..
But due to the spawl and county burden to maintain areas that were not developed ( too much Federal dollars went into this area because of Hurricaine Ivan...although needed but not regulated properly)
we as tax payers are really maxed out..I own property other than my home..but not for long I'm afraid as I just can't afford it anymore..It was to be for a home for my daughter but she will have to make it the best way she can..she will be OK but so many others won't be..

,

Guchol eye is shrinking.

Quoting hydrus:
Guchol eye is shrinking.

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.

Quoting pcola57:


Yes there are greedy contractors that develop in hazardous flood areas and sell those tracts to the people who don't do their homework...
And yes flooding has occured like this(1934 is one example)..
But due to the spawl and county burden to maintain areas that were not developed ( too much Federal dollars went into this area because of Hurricaine Ivan...although needed but not regulated properly)
we as tax payers are really maxed out..I own property other than my home..but not for long I'm afraid as I just can't afford it anymore..It was to be for a home for my daughter but she will have to make it the best way she can..she will be OK but so many others won't be..

Seems this type of flooding isn't all that common... so the kind of measures that may have been needed might not have been implemented during the dry years. Unfortunately that is a common story.... and our understanding of these longer term wx pattern is still in the developmental stages even today. :o(

If the overall economy, or even the local economy along the Gulf coast, was stronger, the FEMA help might not be as needed. Maybe some reconsiderations or re-evaluations will be made.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numers say he's weakening staedily but it doesn't look like it.

Looks healthy. It should weaken soon tho. EWRC is probable.

.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Discussion of possible BOC development by Crown Weather:

Link

is that there forecast or a copy of somebody elses

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A STRONG U/L TROUGH IN THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. RIDES OVER AND SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THE U/L RIDE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. GFS AND ECMWF COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE U/L RIDGE
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG WILL
THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.



Yeah, we are screwed, I've never seen this much dry weather last this long in June, or in any rainy season month, ever.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems this type of flooding isn't all that common... so the kind of measures that may have been needed might not have been implemented during the dry years. Unfortunately that is a common story.... and our understanding of these longer term wx pattern is still in the developmental stages even today. :o(

If the overall economy, or even the local economy along the Gulf coast, was stronger, the FEMA help might not be as needed. Maybe some reconsiderations or re-evaluations will be made.

I sure hope so BAHA..
The "Good 'OL Boy" system is still in charge here...
If you know somebody then you can get something done...
Thank you all for listening to me this AM..
Gotta go for now...
BBL

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.

JTWC doesn't think so either, the new advisory keeps him at 130kts, though it's forecast to weaken soon. More importantly the new track forecast has shifted west significantly.

We've had our own share of problems with flooding here, especially where heavy rains have resulted in road bed flooding that has caused massive / extensive potholes. Luckily for us the rainfall pattern last month was sporadic enough to keep flooding from becoming more widespread, and we've had a bit of a break in the first part of June. With the MJO headed back our way, though, who knows what may happen...

Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...

it could take the name chris and make the gulf storm be debby.

Can someone post the TCHP map please?.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

JTWC doesn't think so either, the new advisory keeps him at 130kts, though it's forecast to weaken soon. More importantly the new track forecast has shifted west significantly.

Imagery on the track?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Imagery on the track?

The previous one had it sliding just east of Tokyo... Now it's well inland

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Whatever that is off of Vietnam looks like it's trying to be something...

Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...

Your point?

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The previous one had it sliding just east of Tokyo... Now it's well inland

Oh dear... that not good....

Quoting Jedkins01:
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A STRONG U/L TROUGH IN THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. RIDES OVER AND SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THE U/L RIDE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. GFS AND ECMWF COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE U/L RIDGE
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG WILL
THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.



Yeah, we are screwed, I've never seen this much dry weather last this long in June, or in any rainy season month, ever.

This is been happening for a few years now. I have seen droughts on the west coast, but not like what has been going on. The backward pattern as we always called it has been more dominant. This certainly is not normal.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your point?

I read that comment and thought... OBviously not a person who frequents this blog.... lol...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is that there forecast or a copy of somebody elses

I always have looked to them as theirs exclusivly.

Well after researching on my own..that TCHP looks to be on the high side in the northern caribbean.It's continuing to rise in the gulf.Warm water extends down mighty deep.

Has potential.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.

Shows more in the big picture. [See 617.] The weakening is more of a decrease in strong winds from the outside.

Gotta run... l8r all...

Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...

And I should care why?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has potential.

If you look at it real close it looks like a pac man that's about to take a chomp out of something.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.

Caribbean is boiling.



GOM is warming.



Whole Atlantic

Quoting stormpetrol:

hey stormpetrol the vorts are getting stronger at 925,850,700, and 500 we need to keep an eye on that Low pressure

Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.

It is much higher than this time last season.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I always have looked to them as theirs exclusivly.

Crown Weather has always been quite reliable and decent before some of these bloggers were even around here. I would be surprised if Crown Weather plagiarized or copied someones forecast material, but certainly cant rule out that it did not happen. If someone said the Sun will rise tomorrow and ten minutes later I say the exact same thing am I plagiarizing..hhhaaaa !

It begins.

There is three possible areas where the chance of tropical mischief can occur one is that the low pressure area from the remnants of Carlotta makes its way to the BOC which it spins up and move north especially with the help of the curvature of the coastline in the BOC.

The next one is the moisture in the central caribbean moves in the NW caribb where it meets up with some nice upper ridging that form when the rigde over Panama meets with the one in the eastern gulf thus help it the develop

Finally, the AOI near bermuda becomes the subtropical/tropical development the models have been hinting at early last week. There is a pocket of low shear thats sit almost on top of it so it could develop within the next 48-96 hours the NHC is predicting a 10% chance of development I would put it at 20% within the next 48 hours.

Quoting hydrus:
Crown Weather has always been quite reliable and decent before some of these bloggers were even around here. I would be surprised if Crown Weather plagiarized or copied someones forecast material, but certainly cant rule out that it did not happen. If someone said the Sun will rise tomorrow and ten minutes later I say the exact same thing am I plagiarizing..hhhaaaa !

Thank you guys for the maps.

I've visited crown weather way before I knew this blog existed.I have found them to be quite reliable and have supported them for years now.

Oh boy, I'd hate to be in the Caribbean right now.

dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean

Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank you guys for the maps.

I've visited crown weather way before I knew this blog existed.I have found them to be quite reliable and have supported them for years now.

I forget the guy's name from CW who used to post on the blog fairly regularly for a while... used to have some pretty sensible comments.

Russ?

guchol looks more symmetrical and the eye is clearing out more, but it is nearing its end,
Good thing it is going to hit japan further south than the previous track

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh boy, I'd hate to be in the Caribbean right now.

Not sailing, anyway. lol

The monsoon trough has easily moved at least 5 degrees northward since the MJO entered phase 8:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
guchol looks more symmetrical and the eye is clearing out more, but it is nearing its end,
Good thing it is going to hit japan further south than the previous track

Still not a good thing. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still not a good thing. :P

it is better than hitting tokyo

best would be out to see.

okinawa is in trouble

Good morning everyone, and a Happy Father's Day to all my fellow dads on the blog!

Just south of Japan. Modis satellite photo today.

Quoting Tazmanian:
dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean

shear is expected to drop to 5-10kt in the SW area and 15-25 in the NW and Central areas still 30-50kt over cuba and bahamas and NE area now this is expected within the next 24-48 hours