Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

When I saw the text initially without reading it ,I thought it was for the Western Caribbean.But that area will also have a circle if not today,by Monday.

so the Euro is back on the idea of two lows in the Gulf



as the CMC


and then crossing florida

Quoting ncstorm:
so the Euro is back on the idea of two lows in the Gulf



as the CMC


and then crossing florida

Seems they want to develop it once it gets past Florida.

00z Euro Ensembles

Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems they want to develop it once it gets past Florida.

The Euro operational dosent but the CMC does

Happy Father's Day Dads! And good morning all. :)

Happy father's day everyone!

Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone here and any opinions on this?

That needs to go away- bringing us more rain here in Bermuda.

gfs is more pronounced in the other models

Then

Quoting bappit:
From the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion this morning:

BY MIDWEEK EYES BEGIN LOOKING SOUTH TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SORT OF TROPICAL FEATURE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT SO OUR FORECAST WILL WEIGH ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE HEAVILY IN FINAL PRODUCTS. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WHILE GFS ENDS UP WITH THE UPPER HIGH FURTHER NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC FEATURES. STILL WARM AND HUMID AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES.

Mornin Bap..South Florida and Texas might get a good soaking and some wind.24.48.72.84.Total Precip..84 hours.

I had a feeling that the area by bermuda would be recognized by the NHC. It looked like it was trying to form into something subtropical yesterday, but someone said it was a tropical wave. :/

Quoting bigwes6844:
One word is WOW!! Look at the BOC! got a little off africa and the atlantic ocean off the NC coast. Check out the Western Pacific too something is brewing out there very soon to left of the typhoon

East to tell the MJO is in town.

Happy Father's Day! Good morning, everyone.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I had a feeling that the area by bermuda would be recognized by the NHC. It looked like it was trying to form into something subtropical yesterday, but someone said it was a tropical wave. :/

i don't think whoever it was understood what u were talking about, and was likely referring to the feature now SE of Jamaica, which is indeed a Twave. The yellow circled feature passed through and to the north of The Bahamas on Friday as a trough. We got some spectacular wx from it, too.

Link
Good Morning

Might be an omega block in ten days..The last time the GFS predicted this it did not materialize.

Quoting BahaHurican:
i don't think whoever it was understood what u were talking about, and was likely referring to the feature now SE of Jamaica, which is indeed a Twave. The yellow circled feature passed through and to the north of The Bahamas on Friday as a trough. We got some spectacular wx from it, too.

I wouldn't have expected that he'd not understand me.
I put the latitude and longitude.

The models have been showing this becoming sub-tropical in a few days, we have to watch it as well.

NAO staying negative..This will change things a bit if it continues.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
The models have been showing this becoming sub-tropical in a few days, we have to watch it as well.

Good looking storm.

GFS phase diagrams.


CMC

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I wouldn't have expected that he'd not understand me.
I put the latitude and longitude.

Well, it was pretty easy for me to recognise that what u were talking about wasn't a Twave... just wouldn't have one that far north at this time of year... plus even the shape of the feature would have suggested non-tropical....

Re: 571

Hmmm... both GFS and CMC expecting this to make a serious run for subtropical or fully tropical at some point in its life... Maybe we will get Chris and Debby after all...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, it was pretty easy for me to recognise that what u were talking about wasn't a Twave... just wouldn't have one that far north at this time of year... plus even the shape of the feature would have suggested non-tropical....

Maybe he thought I put 7N 30W?
I wouldn't see how.

NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jun 17 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This came out of nowhere:



The SPC specifically mentioned a threat for strong tornadoes, so we could have ourselves an outbreak today.

what?

that was a wimpy 15% hatched area and wimpy worded slight yesterday.
guess i should still pay attention to my severe weather

no more 15%



VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND SPEED INCREASES ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. THE ORIENTATION
OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
FAVOR INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE/LARGE BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...THOUGH INCREASING SRH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM MODES DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES IN ROUGHLY THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LARGER CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS SW MN...AND THEN CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

300-400 srh

CMC has flooding for the panhandle.

Good Morning Guchol and happy fathers day to all..

Quoting hydrus:
CMC has flooding for the panhandle.

I sure hope not as ongoing repairs are straining local rescorces to the max..
No FEMA grants for Escambia county because of not meeting the strucual drainage damage critira of $25 million threshold...
Their still using volunteers and prisioner labor to repair the flooding rain damage...
The mosquitos are loving it..

that low in the atl north atlantic is not the same one that is there now.

no chance in the past two runs for chris to beat the high.




on a more local note, the heat is coming to the SE next week, mid 90s by next sunday.

Quoting pcola57:


I sure hope not as ongoing repairs are straining local rescorces to the max..
No FEMA grants for Escambia county because of not meeting the strucual drainage damage critira of $25 million threshold...

When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There were no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.

Guchol is getting larger.

Quoting hydrus:
When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There was no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.

maybe FEMA thinks the damage is not 25mil so local goverments and charities and other organizations can take care of it.
FEMA seems to be more concerned with disasters nobody locally can comfortably pay for.

The primary purpose of FEMA is to coordinate the response to a disaster that has occurred in the United States and that overwhelms the resources of local and state authorities.

Recently we have become very dependent on them, but they do not seen to think this is overwhelming enough.

The state of florida and escambia county will have to help the people themselves

Quoting hydrus:
When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There was no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.

Thank you for compassionate response Hydrus and GeorgiaStormz
We here really appreciate it.

We might have something out of this in the next day or so.

Quoting pcola57:


Thank you for compassionate response Hydrus..
We here really appreciate it.

NP. Best of wishes with recovery, i remember how it was after we had floods up here.

how bad is the damage down there?

neighborhoods swept away?

whole blocks condemned?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guchol has a weird structure, and it does not look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Is weird bad or good?

Good Morning and a really happy father's day to all the fathers on here.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
We might have something out of this in the next day or so.

I can imagine so.

Central Caribbean



NW ATL



Bay of Campeche

Good Morning and Happy Father's Day to all the Dads on the Blog. Looking at all of that convection brewing in the Caribbean south of Jamaica and Hispanola all I can say is thank God the sheer levels remain high down there.

The models did not forecast development of this feature but did forecast plenty of moisture and rain for these parts and potentially problematic flooding issues.

Here is the Caribbean NCEP forecast discussion from Friday; they nailed it:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FARTHER EAST...MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO.WHICH WILL SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE CYCLE.MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING RAPID CHANGE OF PATTERN AS DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUT A DENT ON THE SUBSIDENCE
CAP INVERSION OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THESE ISLES. FURTHERMORE...ARRIVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS AIDING ITCZ MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WET PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY ESTABLISH TO AFFECT WINDWARD ISLES THROUGH 36 HRS AND THEN PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. OVER WINDWARD ISLES..EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO PEAK BY 36 HRSWITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 5MM/DAY. OVER PUERTO RICO...ACCUMULATIONS WILL PEAK THROUGH 36-84 HRS WHERE MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 20-35MM/DAY IS EXPECTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.strong>GREATEST CONCERN IS OVER HISPANIOLA BY LATE CYCLE AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS. WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SYSTEM INDUCES LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. BEST AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE ISLAND WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD INTO JAMAICA/SOUTHERN CUBA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO START INTENSIFYING BY 48-60 HRS TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY 60-108 HRS. BY 60-84 HRS EXPECT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...TO AFFECT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. AMOUNTS ARE TO PEAK BY 84-108 HRS WHERE MAXIMA COULD EXCEED 100MM/DAY. THIS IS ALSO A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT REQUIRES MONITORING.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how bad is the damage down there?

neighborhoods swept away?

whole blocks condemned?

Most homeowners have flood policies in place as required by both state and federal statutes...however our problems are with sewage,water quality,drainage,sub-division/county road washouts,really structural issues.
Many people here are elderly and retired military and have overwhelming medical conditions...so you can imaging their plight...
Red Cross is still in some areas and so are state guard..
Nobody here wants a handout,just a hand..
God Bless them..

Quoting BahaHurican:


Central Caribbean



NW ATL



Bay of Campeche

BIG BLOB

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe FEMA thinks the damage is not 25mil so local goverments and charities and other organizations can take care of it.
FEMA seems to be more concerned with disasters nobody locally can comfortably pay for.

I see your point, but the economy is in poor shape, and according to FEMA mission statement, this is what they are about...What We Do

Overview

FEMA Mission

FEMA mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

DISASTER. It strikes anytime, anywhere. It takes many forms -- a hurricane, an earthquake, a tornado, a flood, a fire or a hazardous spill, an act of nature or an act of terrorism. It builds over days or weeks, or hits suddenly, without warning. Every year, millions of Americans face disaster, and its terrifying consequences.

On March 1, 2003, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) became part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS).Who We Are

FEMA History
FEMA is not the team, but part of a team. That team includes federal partners, state, tribal and local officials, the private sector, non-profits and faith-based groups, and the general public.

Quoting pcola57:


Most homeowners have flood policies in place as required by both state and federal statutes...however our problems are with sewage,water quality,drainage,sub-division/county road washouts,really strucual issues.
Many people here are elderly and retired military and have overwhelming medical conditions...so you can imaging their plight...
Red Cross is still in some areas and so are state guard..
God Bless them..

How common is this type of flooding there, pcola? I don't remember hearing a whole lot about this in the past.

I also know that former swamplands [or land along coastal waterways] are prone to flooding in wet wx patterns, and often when housing was built in these areas in the past there wasn't sufficient preparation for this kind of situation. I've seen similar impacts here in Nassau.

Discussion of possible BOC development by Crown Weather:

Link

That 10% extra-tropical feature is basically also helping cause training showers across Hispanola. They may have some severe flooding in Haiti over the next few days..... Could be worse than a fast moving tropical storm for those poor folks.